Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 12, 2016

The NZDUSD pair produced six more points subsequent to the releasing of data in the morning of the trading session. The NZD made a breakthrough seeing that the retail sales of Ecards outstrip its total sales for the previous months. The Fed policymakers made a proposal regarding the repression of the interest hike.Thereupon, the kiwi escalated approaching to its highest level.
Although the FOMC board of governors consider the US economic status is in good condition to grant a rate increase, they still come to a decision of suspending first the upsurge because the evaluation of the remaining determinants and evidences continues.

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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 12, 2016

The USD/JPY pair closed the last trading session at 103.516 points during the last trading session, dropping by -0.08% or 0.085 after investors flocked to the safe haven currency due to a break in crude oil and stock prices, wiping out the currency pair’s gains during the earlier part of the trading session.
The USD was backed by support from statements that the 10-year yields for the US were at its highest levels in over four months. Due to positive interest rate differentials, the dollar consistently appreciated against the JPY during the past eleven trading sessions, however, the carry trade exhibit last Tuesday proved to be crucial for the US dollar.
Analysts are saying that this particular scenario might be could possibly occur again on Wednesday’s trading session due to the impending release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. These minutes will be of use to market players in order for them to gauge the overall sentiment of Fed officials with regards to the expected interest rate hike in December. Although the meeting minutes from the Fed usually only cause little volatility in the market, analysts are saying that this particular report might become an exception, especially since the USD/JPY is expected to have a reaction to Treasury yields movement and might reflect its price action in the previous trading session.

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EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: October 12, 2016
The EUR/JPY pair was able to retain its support on the 50-DMA and expected to incur additional losses in the light of an expected increase in the USD/JPY pair. The cross-currency pair is now at 114.40 points, going above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 114.09 points. The EUR/JPY dropped yesterday to 114.01 points after constant rejection in the 100-DMA in the past week.
All eyes are on Bank of Japan as BoJ Governor Kuroda is slated to make a speech today. Meanwhile, European industrial production data is also expected to be released today. But the major announcement for today will be likely coming from the Federal Reserve’s Esther George and William Dudley, who is expected to announce that there is a huge possibility for an interest rate hike in December.
For the cross-currency pair’s technical indicators, the pair’s break through at 114.09 could possibly lead to a low of 112.79, which could then lead to a leveling of 112.00. On the other hand, an increase over the 10-DMA of 144.76 could cause another break at the 5-DMA of 115.05, which could ultimately lead to a confluence of 115.60.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 12, 2016
The EUR/USD pair was able to extend the sell-off during the Asian trading session and is now targeting the monthly pivot support at 1.1024 points. The decrease in the value of the EUR/USD might be attributed to the sudden controversial drop of the EUR/GBP pair, which shook the whole market in general. The strengthening of the USD has also added pressure on the pair, particularly now that the US dollar is now transacting against risky currencies such as the NZD and AUD.
On the other hand, the bearish break through of the pair at the 1.11 range again served as a level support for the pair, a function well-used since August. The EUR/USD pair experienced a small recovery after increasing up to 1.1068 before weakening further to 1.1042 points.
The daily chart for the currency pair shows the trend line going around the 1.1042 range. A break below this particular range could cause a test of the 1.10 range, and might lead to a weakening of up to 1.0911. On the higher side, if the pair goes over its daily high of 1.1068, then this could lead to the pair reaching the 5-DMA of 1.1115 and possibly the 200-DMA of 1.1169.

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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: October 14, 2016
There is a tint of negativity for the pair GBP/JPY session this day. The charts showed a hammer pattern which cautions sellers with continuous decline of prices. There is still not enough force to alter it but if a higher break comes it could get to 130 handle and be advantageous for sellers. Moreover, if an exhaustive candlestick pattern is formed, then better chances for sellers. It is possible for prices to go lower at 125 handle with sufficient time in trading.

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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 14, 2016
Recently, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced the Aussie appreciated against other currencies which was predominantly because of housing market.
In housing market, it is presumed for an increase in supply and contemplating on the risk factors, Central bank is taking actions on it. The RBA pointed out that one of the main concerns is the risk with property expansion. There is an increase in demand for the nonperforming mortgages loans but still remain low in Australia. On the positive note, the risks has diminished over the past 6 months. The Central bank is still on the lookout for a hefty increase in supply within the city particularly apartments but it could be balanced out by the increase in demand thereby trimming the price.
The RBA modified their requirements to foreign dividends borrowers and more stricter by limiting the lending conditions borrower when it comes to new property development. Thus, the risks will be greatly lessened as it is anticipated for the increase in credit risks as a result of high demand in housing units.
Nevertheless, RBA acknowledges the importance to monitor closely the housing market for further behavioral changes to prevent worsen the intrinsic risks.
The rates of RBA remains the same with the last policy meeting last October 4th as they remain passive and act to the changes in pattern accordingly. In terms of bonds, RBA plans to cut rates with 28% chance by next year since government bonds rallied. Although last decision has higher percentage with 76% chances.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 14, 2016
The USD/JPY pair is at steady in an uptrend channel for short-term. Nevertheless, the Yen strengthened against greenback despite the weak economy of China.
The price increase for a while but it declined again lower than 104.00 level. It is expected to go lower but the tension dwindled when it reached the 103.50 level. The price bounce back and the traders were able to recover some losses. Henceforth, the pair is trying to gain its momentum back to 104.00 level. The Resistance level is at 104.00 while the Support level is at 103.00 .
In the Moving Averages chart, the prices are at a high level as it continues the Bullish trend. The MACD is within the positive territory but the histogram declined implying the frail command of buyers. The RSI is also moving downward.
It is expected for the physiological level to hold at 104.00 level followed by a decline to 103.00 level.

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis:October 14, 2016
The sterling had kept a sluggish status due to the challenges against the European stocks as well as to the oil prices. In the meantime, greenbacks continued its strong path as it was supported by the present issuance of the Fed’s minutes.
The sellers earned the control over the market. The cable left no choice and continued to stick around the selling pressure last Thursday. The recent low of the pair is 1.2100. Moving averages 50,100 and 200 stay behind to the lower area.
Resistance sit through the 1.1220, support have its seat at 1.2100. MACD still spotted in the negative zone, it means that the sellers also weakened. RSI indicator dominates the oversold area.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 14, 2016
The minutes of FOMC were already publicized which includes the acknowledgement of the board regarding the investor's plan for a Fed interest rate hike. In return, the greens sustained its unyielding position. On Thursday, the EURUSD initiated a stronger note. The price withdrawn the 1.1000 as its current low then further reverse to 1.1040 all throughout the Asian session.
The USD had maintain its route to the European trade. The euro failed to extend its winnings and resulting for an immediate recession. Moreover, the pair descended and intersects the 1.1000 region. The price also weakened and made the dollar and euro jumped to the 1.0990. Moreover, this continued to recover a few losses from the post-European round. Moving averages stayed in a lower position as displayed in the 4 hours chart. Resistance paused in the 1.1050 level, support happen to fall at 1.1000 region.
MACD continuously performed a weak condition and fell off within the negative station whilst demonstrated convergence viewed in the hourly chart. RSI indicator implied an oversold trend. Mainly, the pair is apt to pull through the 1.1000.

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: October 14, 2016

Major events regarding the Chinese trade data as well as the current concerns about petroleum prices had affected the kiwi negatively, as a result this instability lasted until Thursday. The sellers were in charge in handling the market.
The momentum trading maneuvered a downward direction then fell few pips below the 0.7050 level. Due to this instance, the price had accumulated a greater level and overturn such losses. The NZDUSD pair is viewed to be bearish. Moving averages continued to depreciate as seen in the 4-hour chart. Resistance rested around the 0.7120, support take its place at 0.7050 level.
When the MACD sits in the negative zone, this further soften the position of the sellers.The RSI oscillator tend to generate an upward position coming from the oversold territory. The ensued probable target is bearish settled in the 0.7050 region.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 14, 2016

The GBP/USD pair had a stagnant run during the last trading session after the sudden drop in its value last week. The pair had an average day-to-day range of a minimum of 200 pips. The currency pair is now consolidating between 1.2130 and 1.2550 points, with a possible break in the resistance level of 1.2550 opening the way for the pair to reach 1.2360, allowing the pair to have selling opportunities. The currency pair is now trading within the 1.2557 range and analysts are awaiting whether the pair would break through resistance or come down at the support level.
The GBP/USD continues to be affected by the Brexit, and analysts are speculating the pair will continue resonating its effects for another two years, or until such time that the UK finally completes the referendum.
Market players are now waiting for an announcement from the Bank of England’s Governor Carney, as well as a statement from the Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen and the release of the retail sales data later today. Expect an increased volatility for the pair at the close of today’s trading session. Analysts are generally throwing caution to the wind with regards to transacting with this particular currency pair, especially due to the Brexit and the recent drop in the Chinese economy.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 14, 2016
The last trading session went bad for the EUR/USD pair due to the release of China’s trade data, which turned out to be extremely lower than expected, with the data showing that the nation’s exports were the most affected sector. The trade data has now led to investors becoming uncertain with regards to the state of the Chinese economy, especially since the Chinese market is one of the largest markets in the world and any movement would certainly affect all major economies. As a result, the Asian stock markets experienced a significant decrease, as well as the S&P500 for the region. Meanwhile, the USD increased its trading value, causing the EUR/USD to reach support levels at 1.1000 points.
The selling for the pair increased in activity which caused the pair to hit support at 1.1000, even going as far as 1.0985. However, the currency pair eventually recovered from the support level and went up to 1.1050 points, with the pair now at the 1.1054 trading range.
Market players are now expecting increased volatility with regards to this currency pair due to the Fed’s statement which is scheduled to be released within the day, as well as the retail sales data to be released from the US. The pair could possibly go into reversal but is expected to immediately get back to its previous trading range during the session.

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USD/CAD Techncial Analysis: October 14, 2016

The Canadian dollar inched higher than the USD during the last trading session in the light of the impending US retail sales data to be released on Friday. The risk appetite for the currency pair dropped due to a slowdown of the Chinese economy, with the nation’s exports contracting 10% annually and imports sinking by 2% in spite of a drop in commodity prices.
Oil prices rose due to the weakening of the USD and an offset in crude stocks due to drawbacks from inventories in refined products. Meanwhile, Canadian house prices increased by 0.2% last August, while prices of real estates are now under close monitoring due to an increase in household debt fuelled by lower interest rates, which might become unsustainable for the Canadian economy.
Meanwhile, the Canada-EU Trade deal has already passed another test after the German court denied a petition to block the said agreement. EU Ministers will be having a meeting next week with an aim to discuss this particular deal following concerns that the Belgian opposition might attempt to block the said deal due to the possibility of farm imports overshadowing local farm production.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 18, 2016
Bidders leads trading since there is higher chance for the Fed rate hike especially since the US retail sales report shown positive results.
The pair USD/JPY continued to move uphill although it receded from the upper limit and is currently trying to move higher than the 104.00 support level. The 50-EMA showed a bullish move for US dollar and it looks like it will advance as it implies a strong support for the price. Other moving averages are also going upward with the resistance at 105.00 level and the support is at 104.00 level.
The histogram demonstrated a strong move for buyers with the MACD lies in the positive area and RSI being at the overbought area.
When a break comes in at 104.00 support level, it is most likely that it will slide towards the 103.30 level. A rebound back to last week’s high of 104.61 level would prolong gains for traders.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 18, 2016
The pair started the week consistently within a narrow range. The price activity was dynamic moving towards the 1.0950 support level. Since then, it moved steadily at 1.1100 level with slow progress as there is not much pressure to move in different course and most likely the price activity will remain steady until the speech from Draghi of ECB during US session.
The US trading session of the pair started at 1.1015 level but soon after dropped to 1.1100 level and lowered too soon. The pair tried to reach higher limits but it was held at 1.1018 level.
There is no relevant economic release for the day except for the CPI data of US to be released later this day which would greatly affect the Fed rate hike decision. If the results aren’t that strong, it would boost the pair. Oppositely, there will be a strong drive for the price activity which will cause the pair to move between the 1.0900 and 1.0950 range. As of now, the pair remains in the middle ground with undecided state in a mildly bullish trend. This week is pivotal for the next move of the pair when the US dollar continued to rally.