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Post by luisforexmart on Nov 2, 2016 5:59:30 GMT -5
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 02, 2016
The JPY inched higher against the USD during Tuesday’s trading session as a result of safety buying from market players. This flight to safety was caused by a sharp sell-off in the US equity market after equities dropped due to investor reactions to the FBI’s probe of Democratic Party presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, as well as the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve which had a significant impact on the foreign exchange market.
Profits lagged behind on Tuesday after investors shifted their focus on the upcoming elections, as well as decisions from the Fed, especially since there are concerns from the market that a Trump victory could lead to a Brexit-like situation in the US. The US Final Manufacturing PMI data came out at 53.4 points, going slightly above the expected data of 53.3 points. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI was released at 51.9 points. Construction spending data dropped by up to 0.4%, falling short of traders’ expectations of 0.5%.
The Bank of Japan voted last Tuesday to maintain its current interest rate as well as its target for its 10-year government bond yields at -0.1% and 0%. The BoJ also cautioned market players that inflation risks and growth risks are currently on the negative territory.
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Post by luisforexmart on Nov 2, 2016 6:04:08 GMT -5
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 02, 2016
The EUR/USD pair increased up to 1.1068, its highest level reached in 3 weeks after the dollar traded significantly lower after the results of the US Presidential poll showed that Trump went one point higher than Clinton with regards to voters’ intentions. Meanwhile, US macroeconomic releases came out on a positive note after the Markit PMI data for October came out at 53.4, its highest data release for 2016.
In spite of positive US data which strengthens the possibility of an interest rate hike in December, the USD is still in danger of dropping in value during the Tokyo session due to the negative market sentiment with regards to the US dollar. The 4-hour chart for the currency pair exhibits high overbought rates for the technical indicators even though the EUR/USD had a bare minimum of additional 100 pips on a daily basis, which is also an indicator that there is a possibility that the EUR/USD could gain more profit.
The EUR/USD will have to go above its daily highs in order to incur more gains since this is the 50% retracements of its most recent drop in value. The movement of the EUR/USD is expected to slow down during the Tokyo session prior to the FOMC meeting which will determine whether the USD will be able to sustain its current bearish stance.
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Post by luisforexmart on Nov 3, 2016 1:32:21 GMT -5
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: November 3, 2016
Followed by the positive release of the NZ’s labor market statistics is the strengthening of kiwi. Likewise, the most recent report regarding inflation expectation had bolstered the country per se. At present, the pair had sustained a strong trend as of yesterday.
Buyers were able to break the price beyond the marks 0.7250-0.7300. As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price remained intact on top of the moving averages. The 50 and 100 EMAs shifted to an upward direction while the 200-EMA continued to track towards the lower position. Resistance is seen at 0.7300, support is situated at 0.7250. MACD is inclined within the positive area. RSI is moving up and finally entered the overbought territory.
NZDUSD pair were apt to obtain the 0.7350 level upon breaking the 0.7300 region so as to maintain its bullish tone. Preferably, when the pair arrived in the 0.7250 area, the support level 0.7200 will rise again.
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Post by luisforexmart on Nov 3, 2016 1:35:59 GMT -5
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 3, 2016
As the issues regarding the presidential election in the United States arose, the dollar relatively fall to its three-week low. Furthermore, various reports released in Germany had greatly affected the growth of euro. As of the moment, the euro hovers in the short-term bullish momentum on Wednesday.
The pair comes up with a strong level of resistance over the 1.100 which caused for the EURUSD to soften. The euro and greens are trading on its fresh 3-week high below the 1.100 during the EU hours. The price intervenes the 200-EMA then headed northwards as indicated in the 4-hour chart. All moving averages maneuver an upwards slope in the same chart. Resistance proceeded at 1.1100 level, support comes in at 1.1050.
The MACD thrived and showed buyer’s strength. RSI indicator consolidated in the overbought condition. According to forecasts, in case that the positive tone is kept the euro will fall in between the 1.1100-1.1150 regions.
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Post by luisforexmart on Nov 3, 2016 1:39:55 GMT -5
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 3, 2016
The Bank of England will release its official bank rates later at 12:00 GMT. It is anticipated that the rates will not be changed because of the positive outlook of its price activity for the past weeks. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce their unanimous decision in votes regarding bank rates for the month of September. The Governor of BoE, Mark carney, will have a talk when the policy meeting finished.
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Post by luisforexmart on Nov 3, 2016 1:42:43 GMT -5
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 3, 2016
Yesterday, the Australian dollar closed higher even though the US dollar has depreciated. It closed at .7659 with 0.0007 or +0.09% increment.
The Presidential election current polls showing Hilary Clinton, the Democratic candidate is losing to Donald Trump which greatly strains the U.S. dollar. Moreover, the next Fed meeting on Wednesday is most awaited relative to the results of the U.S. Presidential election. The financial market is siding on higher chances of Clinton to win the election.
The most recent monetary policy decision did not create tension among traders. Hence, it was decided to leave the rates as it is but/ still uncertain with the December rate hike. They also hinted that they would not implement a rate hike immediately with raising concerns on the U.S. presidential election as they prefer to wait for the outcome instead.
Aussie rates will be dependent on the weak U.S. dollars and polls of the U.S. presidential election will affect the price action. The Challenger Job-cut report will be reported early. Soon after the unemployment claims, Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity and Preliminary Unit Labor Costs will also be released.
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Post by luisforexmart on Nov 3, 2016 1:45:56 GMT -5
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 3, 2016
The pair USD/CAD remained strong despite all the chaos in th related to the U.S. presidential election with the risks of republican candidate Donald Trump to win. The depreciation of U.S. dollars has affected other currencies such as euro, pound and aussie except for the Canadian dollar. This may be because of steady consolidation of the pari or the bulls taking over the market.
Another event that has affected the prices is the decline of oil prices. Canada has a strong economic dependence to oil market which could weaken the Canadian dollar that counterbalance the depreciation of US dollar. Oil prices are about to drop because of the incoming OPEC meeting in November. For now, the pair would seem to remain in a consolidation state.
There is no major news today in Canada but the unemployment claims is due to be released later this day. The market would remain unsteady because of the risks involved in the U.S. presidential election and the news and rumors revolving around related to the presidential candidates.
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Post by luisforexmart on Nov 3, 2016 1:48:42 GMT -5
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 3, 2016
The EUR/USD pair continued to be on the bearish territory as the US dollar continued to decrease in value during the last trading session. The market is now considering the possibility of a Trump victory, and a lot of market players do not want to be caught off-guard which was what happened during the Brexit shock vote. The impending US elections has already prompted investors to go to safe haven currencies such as the JPY and CHF. Normally, investing in the USD during times like this would be beneficial to investors, but since the USD has turned risky, investors are now resorting to gold and other safer investments.
The currency pair is now placed over the 1.1100 region with a lot resistance levels surrounding this particular region. The statement released by the FOMC did little to appease the market since the statement was able to meet market expectations. However, the Fed is still open to the probability of a rate hike in December even though the central bank did not give out any hints during its previous bank meeting. The Fed statement was unable to induce market volatility and only caused a few jumps for the currency pair.
The market is not expecting any major economic news releases from the eurozone. However, the market is expecting the release of the UK High Court ruling which will be determining whether the Parliament will be invoking Article 50. If the Parliament votes “No”, then Theresa May would have full bearings of the Brexit strategies, causing the GBP to be negatively affected and could cause the USD to inch higher.
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Post by luisforexmart on Nov 3, 2016 1:52:18 GMT -5
NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 3, 2016
The NZD was able to reach its highest levels since October, causing the pair’s trend on its daily chart to go in the upward direction. Presently, the NZD/USD pair is trading at .7287 after increasing by +1.43% or 0.0103 points.
The Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday backtracked to election-related concerns, whose results could possibly put an increased pressure on the USD. Democratic candidate Clinton is slowly being overtaken by Republican candidate Trump, and investors and traders are now banking on a possible Trump victory. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve was unable to sway traders and investors with its most recent adjustments to its monetary policies. The Fed voted to maintain its current interest rates, but left out hints in its statement which could have either made or broke the possibility of a rate hike in December.
The NZD increased significantly on Wednesday after recent government data exhibited positive employment growth for the nation in the third quarter, with this growth accelerating to three times the previous growth rates in July and September. This could be an indicator that the Kiwi economy might be doing even better than what the Reserve Bank of New Zealand initially thought, and could also mean a possibility of an interest rate cutback in the coming weeks.
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Post by luisforexmart on Nov 3, 2016 1:55:22 GMT -5
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 3, 2016
The USD continues to be subject to downward pressure during Wednesday’s trading session due to uncertainties brought about by the upcoming US Presidential elections next week. The USD/JPY pair was unable to maintain its previous levels of 105.00 after a heavy seller resistance within this particular region, causing the currency pair to lose some of its value. Wednesday’s trading session saw the pair remain in the negative territory as the downward momentum for the currency pair continued. Seller pressure also pushed the USD/JPY further below 104.00 and is now approaching the 103.00 trading range.
The USD/JPY pair broke through 103.50 and is well on its way to 103.00. The pricing of the currency pair went over the 100-EMA and is testing the 200-EMA for the pair’s 4-hour chart. Meanwhile, moving averages for the USD/JPY is currently on the downward direction. Resistance levels for the pair are expected to be at 103.50, while support levels for the pair are expected to be at 103.00. MACD indicators for the pair declined, showing seller strength. RSI indicators are now a few pips away from the oversold level which signals a possible downward move for the pair.
If the USD/JPY continues to be subject to downward pressure, then the pair could possible reach its previous low of 102.50. However, there is still a probability that the pair would be able to reach its resistance levels at 103.50-103.80 points.
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Post by luisforexmart on Nov 4, 2016 6:11:17 GMT -5
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 4, 2016
The dollar already regain its deficits as of yesterday making its position firmer since it took much profit. On the other hand, the pair EURGBP made a dipped due to matters regarding presidential election.
The pair presented a bullish trend since bullish investors rule the market as of the moment. The EUR/USD moves in an ascending channel as it stays within the 1.1100 region during the EU session. Furthermore, it marginally established a bearish post-European open upon the lowering of price from its recent highs.
The European currency were pushed below the 1.1000 done by the sellers for the purpose of reclaiming their power over the market. The pair had moved into the lower position and came near the 1.1050 level along with the onset of the NY session. Moving averages shifted to an upmove as it was indicated in the 4-hour chart. Resistance is presented at 1.1100, support acquired the 1.10150 region.
MACD lies within the positive area. The histogram decreased which implies weakening for the buyer’s positions.
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Post by luisforexmart on Nov 4, 2016 6:12:36 GMT -5
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: November 4, 2016
Since the recently issued UK’s Purchasing Managers' Index presented much better results which cause another reinforcement for the sterling on Thursday. On the same day, the pound were able to optimize on the back of BoE’s conservation of rates.
The pair demonstrated a positive tone and kept a bullish position amid the trading day. On the other hand, the GBP develop another bullish outlook in the interim of EU hours.
As traders attempted to push the pound to a higher level it reach the 1.2500 resistance level. Upon breaking the 100-EMA, the price headed north close to the 200-EMA ahead of the NY session. Current resistance can be found at 1.2500, support sits at 1.2400. MACD is located in the positive zone. The histogram escalated which means improved strength for the buyers. RSI is seen at the overbought condition.
In case that the pair preserved a bullish outlook, it would keep its reversal moving towards the 1.2500 region.
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Post by luisforexmart on Nov 4, 2016 6:14:31 GMT -5
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: November 4, 2016
The loonie established a neutral position versus its base currency as of yesterday. Seeing the greenbacks softened consequent to the unfavorable result of the American labor statistics. While news regarding the oil price reduction had affected the Canadian dollar.
The pair stayed in the neutral phase since last week and remained the neutral opinion until now. Moreover, USDCAD stick around the 1.3360 as its weekly lows. The price toggle in the boundaries of 1.3400 and 1.3350 levels.
As shown in the 1-hour chart are moving averages that sits in the neutral position as well. The pair headed over the downward direction but blocked by the 200-EMA. While the accelerating notion turned down upon arriving to the regions of 50 and 100 EMAs.
Resistance settled in the 1.3400 level, support is located at 1.3330 region. MACD indicator is placed within the centerline. If the histogram attained the positive zone it means that buyer’s strength are growing. When the indicator reached the negative territory, this implies the seller's capability to manage the entire market. RSI is found also in the neutral domain. It is expected that the pair will maintain a bullish outlook providing that the price is on top of the 1.3330.
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Post by luisforexmart on Nov 4, 2016 6:17:56 GMT -5
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 4, 2016
Yesterday, the pound rallied in big volumes after the ruling of high court. It recovered from a low physiological level of 1.23 to 1.25. However, the surge halted as the Supreme Court says it would plea for an appeal regarding the decision, scheduled on December 5th and 8th. Then, the Central bank Governor moved in a hawkish tone that was an unexpected move surprising the market, trying to stabilize the market in a neutral state.
The Brexit risks have lessened and the current move of the bank is based on the recent decisions central banks of England and Japan to put an end to its rate cuts as well the Federal Reserve surpassing the inflation targets. It is essential to pound that it is at 1.2500 level and a shift from this especially if it breaks, there is an opportunity for a leg to move in either direction. However, it seems that the current trend is not sustainable which means there would be a negative growth prognosis in UK that is more feasible to go for a downward outlook.
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Post by luisforexmart on Nov 4, 2016 6:19:54 GMT -5
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 4, 2016
As the U.S. dollar weakened, the Australian dollar gained yesterday. With the concerns regarding the U.S. presidential election, the price movement of Aussie will be dependent to U.S. dollars. The greenback continues to decline s the polls of the election showing the lead of the Republican candidate Donald Trump with its opponent, Democratic candidate, Hilary Clinton which is believed to upset the financial market should he win the election.
Traders boosts stronger support before the retail sales report and the monetary policy statement of the Reserve bank of Australia to be released today. The RBA is unlikely to change its cut rates since there are feasible prospects to bolster economic growth in a long-term basis because of high demand from China that boosted trading.
The australian dollar gained by 0.6% in retail sales for the month of September. This is a follow through of a rise in August which has given the best output for two months this year.
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