Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: May 9, 2017
The New Zealand currency had an initial break downwards during the Monday opening, but it earned a stable support near 0.69 region and made a reversal, bouncing around 50 pips.
The sellers were seen to moved back to the market while the volatility is expected to resume. The 0.69 mark remained significant, however, a break underneath 0.6880 will drive towards 0.6850. Moreover, the market continued to struggle a little bit because commodities seem sloppy lately.
Nevertheless, the kiwi is highly sensitive when it comes to commodities as well as to the sentiment of trading public with regards to different commodity-linked markets.
The long-term weakening of the market still exist and the selling would possibly acquire longer-term.
With that being said, the 0.69 level hold a significant support. As previously mentioned, touching the 0.6880 region would indicate that the market is broken and sellers will regain the control. In contrast to it, a move beneath 0.70 range would alter the long-term outlook.
Consider carefully the overall tone of metals and agricultural products since they provide some hints regarding the probable trend of the kiwi.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 9, 2017
The USD/CAD pair received some purchase support from the 1.3650 trading range, with the pair rebounding towards 1.3700 points during the later part of yesterday’s session. The currency pair has since then corrected and is now currently situated at just under 1.3700 points.
The pair’s recovery was mostly because of the continuous drop in oil prices as of late. Since the value of the Canadian dollar is highly reliant on oil prices, these two are very correlated and this is why the CAD has been suffering extreme downward pressure over the past weeks, with the pair managing to surpass the very important resistance point at 1.3500 points and will now be attempting to break through its next medium-term target of 1.4000 points. The weakness of the Canadian dollar has been further augmented by Trump’s continuous pressuring of the Trump administration to alter the NAFTA agreement. The US-Canada trade relationship is very lucrative and if the US economy decides to back off on this particular agreement, the Canadian economy could possibly reel from the negative effects should this come into fruition. In fact, the CAD as well as the Canadian economy is now undergoing a lot of pressure, with the Canadian housing economy undergoing immense pressure, among others.
For today’s session, there are no major news releases from both the US and the Canadian economy and as such, the USD/CAD pair is expected to consolidate harmlessly at both directions of 1.3700 for the duration of today’s session.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 9, 2017
The GBP/USD pair spent most of yesterday’s session in a consolidation manner and even corrected lower since Macron’s victory had virtually no effect on the currency pair since it was pretty much expected by the market already. Although the currency pair had briefly moved above 1.2980 points during the first few hours of yesterday’s session, the GBP/USD pair had almost immediately corrected lower due to an absence of a significant follow-through. The UK market is expected to to undergo a risk mode in spite of the fact that the UK is virtually unaffected by the results of the French national elections since these are both expected to prop up the value of the euro and the sterling pound, although so far there have been no such move as of the moment.
The cable pair had dropped slowly but surely in value during the previous session although it was lended with some support coming from the 1.2930 trading range and is currently trading at just above this range. However, the bulls should be concerned that the GBP/USD pair has failed to surpass the very critical trading range of 1.3000 points even though the risk trades have been very favorable for the currency pair during the past few weeks. The cable pair had again attempted to break through this specific range yesterday but this attempt proved to be futile and the pair only resorted to correcting within its lower ranges. However, it has yet to be seen whether the pair’s range highs is actually solid enough and what the pair needs in order for it to be able to surpass its range highs. Traders should also take caution in the fact that there is a high possibility of the cable pair correcting while in the middle of its uptrend. The GBP/USD pair’s consistently stable price action was mostly due to a steady stream of positive economic readings from the UK economy, with this trend expected to push through at least until the near future.
For today’s session, there are no expected readings from both the UK and the US economy although the UK will be releasing its BoE rate announcement later this week. This rate announcement is expected to be the determinant of the currency pair’s short-term price action.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 9, 2017
The EUR/USD pair had a short stint at over 1.1000 during the first few hours of yesterday’s session following Macron’s victory in the recently-concluded French presidential elections. The euro had spent almost the entirety of last week in an upward manner as the market awaited the results of this said election, and the euro had spent yesterday’s session in a selling manner aside from the initial move above 1.1000 points.
Macron’s recent victory has been pretty much priced in by the market last week, and as such, his victory did not come as a surprise to the market yesterday. This is why the duration of yesterday’s session was mostly spent by market players on a selling spree. This is why the EUR/USD pair had slowly made its way under 1.1000 points and had eventually reached 1.0930 points during yesterday’s trading session. The currency pair was unable to get any leverage from any kind of significant economic and geopolitical events, and this is why the pair’s movement yesterday was mostly dictated by the bulls’ positions unwinding in order for them to purchase the currency pair at a much lower prices in the short term period. The EUR/USD pair’s correction is not expected then to exceed 1.0800 points.
For today’s session, there are no expected economic and geopolitical events to be released into the market today, and the EUR/USD pair could possibly range and consolidate with a bearish undertone for entirety of today’s trading session.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 10, 2017
The EUR/USD pair traded with a dominantly bearish undertone during yesterday’s session, although it was able to recover somewhat as the previous session was about to come to a close. The dollar strength was the dominant trend in the market yesterday, and this has enabled the EUR/USD pair to surpass 1.0900 points. The strength of the USD was felt across the market yesterday, although some news from DPRK shook things up a bit.
A bout of consistent dollar strength has caused some corrections in the overall value of the EUR/USD pair which plummeted to 1.0875 points during yesterday’s session. However, it has to be emphasized that this particular correction was not due to geopolitical news and events influencing the pair, but rather due to a profit taking from large-scale investors who incurred gains as the currency pair moved towards 1.1000 points. These are expected to revert and trigger more buys as the market waits for lower prices, and this is why the pair’s correction is not expected last at least in the medium term.
For today’s session, the ECB’s Draghi will be making a speech as the NY trading session commences. Aside from this, there are no more expected releases coming from both the EU and the US economy. As with Draghi’s usual demeanor whenever he makes a statement, he is again expected to veer away from issues regarding the bank’s monetary policies. The EUR/USD pair is then expected to remain consolidating on both directions of 1.0900 points.

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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: May 10, 2017
The USD/JPY pair continued to inch higher during yesterday’s trading session as investors reacted to a surge in the demand for high-yield assets as well as a surge in US Treasury yields. In addition, the USD also advanced against other currencies after it reached the oversold region which compelled bargainers to re-invest in the dollar. The USD/JPY closed down Tuesday’s session at 113.896 points after going up by 0.739 points or +0.65%.
The USD/JPY retreated somewhat from its range highs at 114.326 points due to profit-taking caused by higher demand for safe assets such as the yen. This sell pressure has been attributed to comments coming from the DPRK ambassador, who said that the hermit country will be pushing through with its sixth consecutive nuclear test. In addition, the board members of the BoJ also released the minutes of their meeting held last April that the central bank is keen on maintaining its current policies as a result of a downgrade in foreign risks. In addition, the BoJ also said that it increased the economic assessment for the country since Japanese production and exports are looking very positive as of the moment.
The majority of the central bank’s statement was pretty much expected by the market in general, and this is why the slight weakness in the currency pair’s value yesterday can be attributed to flight-to-safety buys. For today’s session, the USD/JPY pair is expected to consolidate within the major retracement area of 113.390-114.633 points.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 10, 2017
The GBP/USD pair had no clear sense of direction during yesterday’s session as there was a marked absence in economic and geopolitical events which would have otherwise propped up the cable pair’s value. This development was then reflected in the currency pair’s price action, which merely consolidated yesterday with bearish undertones. The strength of the greenback was the dominant trend in the market yesterday, and this caused the pair to move towards 1.2900 points during the previous trading session.
However, the GBP/USD pair’s bulls have made it possible for the currency pair to recover in a consistent manner during the past 12 hours in spite of the ever-growing strength of the greenback, with the cable pair managing to retrace the entirety of its downward action and is now back at its previous range of 1.2960 points. The currency pair might be met with some tight spots within its range highs as the market prepares itself for the ECB rate statement as well as the rate decision which will all happen during tomorrow’s session. Although the central bank is not expected to veer away from its current stance on its monetary policies, what the market will be waiting for is what the central bank’s members think about the state of the UK economy, as well as the rate hike vote split.
For today’s session, there are no expected releases coming from both the UK and the US economy, and as such, the GBP/USD pair is expected to undergo an intermittent price action on both sides of 1.2950 points with a probability of shifting at the pair’s range highs.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: May 10, 2017
The greenbacks continued gaining popularity on Tuesday and weighed a downward pressure to the pair, even though the European yields is relatively higher which beat the performance of U.S yields. While treasury bonds were kept in the pressured area while riskier asset also gained traction because of the events related to geopolitics followed by the results of the presidential election in France last Sunday.
The EURUSD declined yesterday, moving down the support that became the resistance found at 1.0915 near the 10-day moving average.
The support can be seen around the gap formed during the month in April on the back of French election round 1 situated in the level 1.0775. It further corresponded with the descending slope trendline. Another support lies at 1.0572 within March lows.
The momentum became negative, the histogram was printed in the black. The impetus of MACD is also negative driving towards a potential sell signal of MACD crossover. It eventuated due to the spread of the 12-day EMA subtracted to 26-day EMA and further crossed under the 9-day EMA of the spread. The action was verified through the histogram that trailed towards the negative grounds. The relative strength index pushed downwards coincided with the price movements reflected by the ascending negative momentum.

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: May 10, 2017
The AUDUSD decline on Tuesday since the level 0.74 resumed offering a resistance. This is a significant region in the market till Tuesday and been broken which could even go lower.
The breakdown beneath the day lows would cause the market to drive near 0.73 handle, en route 0.70 mark eventually.
The level above 0.7425 appeared to be heavily resistive and a break on top of it will alter the overall market outlook. Meanwhile, the bearish pressure seems copious and rallies would likely provide value for the USD.
Sellers of the bearish Australian currency sees 0.70 to be an important area for the market.
Moreover, the American dollar appeared to be very strong among other currencies worldwide
The downward impetus established a stronger stance amid Tuesday trades.
Nevertheless, we do not rule for the possible test the channel boundary which will confirm for a further resumption of the downfall. If the quotes of the pair were canceled, it will result in a stable growth and a breakdown around 0.7420 range that indicates the continuation of an upward correction for the commodity-linked pair.

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: May 10, 2017
The sterling had an initial attempt to rally on Tuesday, however, they have seen that the mark 1.2950 is slightly resistive. Thereupon, the market slides to 1.29 handle and found some support.
The longer-term buyers are anticipated to return pushing the market upwards but this could be also a rough road temporarily.
The ability to cut through the session highs would signal a bullish note and would move above the 1.30 region. The mentioned level involves a psychological significance considering it was massive, round and contain a psychological figure. A break on top of it would allow the market to create a considerable move that is already anticipated.
With that being said, the previous day was soft except to the pullback which came from an impulsive action last week.
The British currency broken out hence its pieces continued to take some move following the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union. This event would trigger the resumption of the volatility in the GBP/USD, considering also the headlines which would appear for the next sessions.
Traders should be flexible but the longer-term uptrend will further be extended causing the cable to drive higher. Selling is ruled out, not unless the significant level 1.2750 will be broken

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: May 11, 2017
The New Zealand dollar surged during the Wednesday session with 0.69 level as the starting point. The 0.6950 gives a strong resistance and it seems that this will be followed by a consolidation. The market might need to push more but if this breaks higher than the 0.6950 level, then this could climb higher probably reaching towards the 0.70 and below.
Reversals might take long to occur despite that there is a high buying pressure below. Although the consolidation could stretch up to 0.6850 level and below matching the current trading levels.
The kiwi is highly sensitive to the commodity market which persists to be volatile. In turn, this also affects the New Zealand dollar. The kiwi is easier to monitor since there is a high demand for ETFs in the whole commodity market which is highly influential to the NZD/USD pair. If the pair breaks out and reach a new high, this opens more buying opportunities. Yet, there is a high volatility in the market that makes easier currencies are traded more in the market right now. The market waits for more blatant indicators in the market.

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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: May 11, 2017
The Euro paired against the British pound had a high volatility during the Wednesday session. The 0.84 level is being tested while there is a lot of noise seen lower than the handle. It is anticipated that the price will proceed to consolidate which would attract more traders unless a fresh new low is achieved and a longer term trade will take place but this will be relative to the weakened Euro and appreciation of the pound.
The interest rate decision of the Bank of England and the minutes of the meeting is scheduled to be released today. If the decision is hawkish, this will put immense pressure to the British pound and the trend would move downhill in this market. Yet, there a lot of levels that would affect the pricing in general.
This pair could undergo a short-term rally which would halt the selling opportunity. The market will find it more difficult while they attempt to break lower. However, it would be good if the pair breaks above the 0.8450 level but as of now, there is a lot of factors to weigh in which brings uncertainty in the market. The downtrend is also not bad but traders should be cautious of an unexpected turn of events. It is best for traders to be cautious before placing any future trades today and see where the market goes before being pushed to the sidelines.

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: May 11, 2017
The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar shows a bullish tone during the Wednesday session. The 0.74 level is strongly resistive then the price moves downward from 0.7610 then shifted upwards towards 0.7328 which is a form of consolidation. The downtrend could continue upwards the next target at 0.7250 region. A break over the 0.7426 level implies a longer consolidation of the downhill and the succeeding rebound would test again the resistance level in a downtrend line on its 4-hour chart.
The gold market gives off a bearish pressure in the Aussie and it’s better to short this pair instead of buying it which everybody must be doing. Hence, there might be in increase of position sizing offers. The momentum in the gold market will most likely continue as the market tries to attain the $1200 level and starts to gain momentum. On the other hand, the greenback stays strong which is apparent in the market.

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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: May 16, 2017
The U.S. dollar declined in early Monday session following the announcement of Russia and Saudi to prolong OPEC output reduction. This gives a bullish reaction for the Canadian dollar and we still await of the market reaction. For short-term, this translates as means to stimulate the oil market but gives an inverse reaction to the market.
If the price breaks lower than the current psychological levels at 1.3650, it could reverse back to the 1.36 handle. This is a significant level of long-term and a breakdown lower than the said level is a pessimistic indication. Yet, there is still a chance for long-term traders to return and push through this level.
The plan of production cuts was not as effective as expected that makes it not probable in the future. Long-term traders are most likely looking for positions lower in a lower value and there is a higher probability for traders to return when the psychological level is sustained higher than the 1.36 handle. Alternatively, if the price breaks lower than the psychological levels, then the market could further go down towards the 1.35 level that is positioned as significant level.
Regardless, there will be high volatility in the market with the current oil market condition. The USD/CAD pair is relative to oil prices and if the price goes higher, the pair is expected to follow after. Traders should be cautious in trading for long-term since there are other factors that affect the pricing such as the housing market.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: May 16, 2017
The U.S. dollars against the Japanese yen had a very choppy trading during the Monday session. It currently hovers close to the 113.50 region as a form of consolidation and is gaining attention to traders recently. The former resistance level is now supportive at 113.75 and the 113.25 area. If the price breaks out in the current psychological levels and it is expected to gain momentum either up or down. The price is anticipated to move higher in the long run towards the 114.35 region.
If the price breaks lower than the 113 handle, the next target would be at 112.50 region. When a supportive candle is formed, it opens more buying opportunities when it breaks down although this may take some time. Pullbacks are also advantageous which the market knows its value.
The market is consolidating but reverses for some time as there are pullbacks seen every now and then. The U.S. dollar is being valuable in the market with the Federal Reserve trying to increase rates for the next months while Japan is not opting to be dovish with their policies. Currently, fundamental indicators for long-term tries to bring this pair higher as traders to open for long-term positions.