Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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Fundamental Analysis: May 18, 2016

We heard a lot of economic news on Tuesday, US data being the main driver of the day. The States has given the report of Core Consumer Price Index to the public wherein the data came in at 0,2% which occur simultaneously with the report and also the Industrial Production which reached 0,7% against the reported 0,3%. The Federal Reserve representatives, Williams and Lockhart gave their statements. The idea of raising the rates twice or thrice this year was supported by Williams. Meanwhile, Lockhart stated that the negative rates scenario was not intended.



As for the Eurozone, it only published their positive Trade Balance for March wherein the data came in at 28.6 billion against the report of 22.5 billion.



Since September last year, the inflation in the UK decelerated in April for the first time which also caused the pound to lessen its gains contrary with the dollar. After increasing by 0,5% in March, the Retail Price Index grew by 0,3% y/y. The inflation was expected to stay at 0,5% by the traders, but the British inflation has been low from the target level of 2% for more than 2 years.



In March, the Japanese Industrial Production aggressively increased wherein the data came in at 3,8% against the previous 3,6%. While the Capacity Utilization grew from -5,4% to 3,2% in March. But still these statistics could not support the yen.

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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: May 18, 2016

Bonds Market. The 10-year UK government bonds yield decreased which lessen the investments of the British assets. The UK presented Consumer Price index for April wherein the data came in at 0,3% y/y against the report of 0,5% y/y.



The first support occurs at 1.4400 and at 1.4320 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4480 and at 1.4560 subsequently.



The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement creating a "Dead Cross".



The MACD indicator is in an impartial location. The price is correcting.

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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 19, 2016

As the expectations that the Fed would heighten the rates is growing, the US dollar increased contrary to the euro on Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index for April reached 0,2% against the expected -0,2% as published by the Euro zone.



The first support occurs at 1.1260 and at 1.1150 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1350 and at 1.1450 subsequently.



A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price may be found below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display a descending movement. This activity will remain until the price goes below the Cloud.



The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 19, 2016

The primary Gross Domestic Product of the Japanese for Q1 stabilized as the data came in at +0,4% against the report 0,1%. On a yearly basis, the GDP has increased by 1,7% during the first quarter. In the midst of the upgraded data in Japan and the United states, the expectation that the Bank of Japan will weaken the monetary policy even more has been diminished.



The first support occurs at 109.80 and at 109.00 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 110.60 and at 111.40 subsequently.



An inveterate and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display an ascending movement. This activity will remain until the price goes over the Cloud.



The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is increasing.

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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 20, 2016

Bonds Market. The interest in the European assets lessened due to the decline in the 10-year German government bonds yield. Protocols were presented by the ECB. The euro could not be sustained by the issued ECB minutes.



The primary support occurs at 1.1150 and at 1.1040 subsequently. While the primary resistance resides at 1.1260 and at 1.1350 subsequently.



An inveterate and a solid sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement. This activity will remain until the price is below the Cloud.



The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is correcting.

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Technical Analysis for USD/CHF: May 20, 2016

Though the macroeconomic calendar was empty, the investors of Switzerland put their interest to the United States' data. The USA presented the Initial Jobless Claims report wherein the data showed 278,000 against the expected 275,000 and also the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey wherein -1.8 againts the report 3.5.



The primary support occurs at 0.9850 and at 0.9750 subsequently. The primary resistance stands at 0.9940 and at 1.0020 subsequently.



An inveterate and a solid buy signal. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen creates an ascending movement. This activity will remain until the price is on top of the Cloud.



the MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is consolidating.

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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 24, 2016

A slew of hawkish statements from Fed officials weighed in on the EUR/USD, paired with the Germany’s disappointing manufacturing PMI.



Philadelphia Fed President Harker and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that a June rate hike is “appropriate” given the US’ strong economic data. An increase will also allow Fed enough space to lower it should financial instability hit the country. The two officials said that more rate hike is possible next year if favorable US data continue.




Meanwhile, Germany, the Eurozone’s biggest economy, reported a lower slower manufacturing PMI growth. The latest release grew by 1.3 percent year-on-year, similar to the previous month’s 1.3 percent. Economists forecasted a 1.6 percent rise. The pair is now trading at 1.1185, topping at 1.1706 in earlier session. The first support is at 1.1067 and 1.0937 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in a negative position and the price is declining.

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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: May 25, 2016

NZD/USD is receiving downward pressure from rosy US data, shrouding a similarly upbeat trade data from the kiwi dollar.



New Zealand’s trade balance in April amounted to $292 million from the previous month’s $117 million, beating the forecast $60 million by leaps. This is due to exports of $4.30 billion, a 10 million increase from March’s $4.20 billion, while imports were down to $4.01 billion from $4.09 billion.



Home sales in the US is the highest in eight years, with 619,000 more houses sold from the previous month’s 531,000. Only 523,000 were expected in April. This is a 16.6 percent growth from a decline of -1.3 percent in March.



Increasing talks about a Fed rate hike in June is also boosting the buying interest around the USD, sending the bears toward the bird. As the market digests Fed officials’ hawkish statements on Monday, a bearish outlook on the NZD will remain.



The first support is at 0.6716 and 0.6576 while the first resistance is at 0.6823 and 0.7054. The spot exchange is currently 0.6754.



The MACD indicator is in negative location. The price is rising.

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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 25, 2016

The Bonds market visualized an increasing optimism as the 10-years German government bonds yield increased which also heightened the charm of the European assets. The center of the attraction was the Economic Sentiment in May (the ZEW Institute). The index aggressively decreased which weakened the euro wherein the data came in at 6.4 against the expected 12.0.



The first support occurs at 1.1130 and at 1.1070 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.1200 and at 1.1250 subsequently.



An inveterate and a solid sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. This activity will remain until the price is below the Cloud.



The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: May 26, 2016

The decreasing doubts regarding the result of the referendum cause the pound to come nearly to its high for the week. The volume of Brexit opponents is 55% against 42% who want to exit the EU, according to the recent poll.



The first support occurs at 1.4670 and at 1.4560 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4760 and at 1.4880 subsequently.



An inveterate and a solid buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen ascends in movement and the Kijun-sen displays a horizontal movement creating a "Golden Cross". This activity will remain until the price is over the Cloud.



The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is growing.

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Fundamental Analysis: May 27, 2016

In the midst of positive economic forecasts, the dollar reinforced its positions. As stated by the Fed, the US regulator may heightened the rates at its conference this coming June. Meanwhile, in the economic news, the United States presented the Initial Jobless Claims wherein the volume appeared at 268,000 against the report of 275,000.



The euro was bolstered by the agreement happened between the Eurozone and the Greece. The latter attained an agreement with its creditors and shall take a new tranche of loans in the amount of 10 billion euro.



It has been inveterated that the recoupment of the British economy became sluggish by the second Gross Domestic Product estimate for the first quarter in the UK. The economy showed a growth by 0,4% in the first quarter from 0,6% in Q4 2015. The economy of Britain encountered a difficulty with a devitalized growth in emerging markets particularly in China. The approaching referendum also decelerated the growth.



The dollar stick around in a range waiting for the statement of Janet Yellen. The market is anticipating hints from the regulator about the probable rate hike in June. The yen raised and bereaved the dollar from its recent gains. The investors involuntarily close positions before there are any probable risk that may occur.

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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 27, 2016

The yen deprived from growing on Thursday. But as the corporate services price index grew, it heightened precociously. And as presumed, the Corporate Service Price index grew by 0,2% y/y. The USA presented the Durable Goods Orders wherein the data showed 0,4% against the expected 0,3% and Initial Jobless Claims which showed 268,000 against the report 275,000.



The first support occurs at 109.00 and at 108.20 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 109.80 and at 110.60 subsequently.



The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement creating a "Golden Cross".



The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is consolidating.

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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 31, 2016

Upbeat data from Eurozone’s two biggest economies helped cushion the blow of a firming USD against the Euro as the bloc currency records session highs, although the pair is still under performing.



Preliminary CPI of Germany, the EU’s largest economy, was in line with the forecast 0.3 percent growth from the previous reading’s decline of 0.4 percent. France, the second largest, recorded a higher-than-expected 0.6 percent GDP for the first three months of the year, beating the 0.5 percent expectations.



The Eurozone Economic Sentiment report also showed that consumers have a positive outlook on the economy. It printed 104.7 points in May, up from 104.0 last month.



However, these are not enough to offset the bulls surrounding the USD after the Fed Chairwoman herself said that a rate hike is appropriate given the US’ economic conditions.



The pair is now trading at 1.1149, peaking at 1.1156 in early European session. The first support is at 1.1067 and 1.0937 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.1215 and 1.1357 subsequently.



The MACD indicator is in negative position. The price is rising.

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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 1, 2016

This week's primary event would be the conference of the ECB in the Eurozone. There are assumptions that the European regulator will leave its monetary policy unchanged.



The currency pair tried to regain on Tuesday. The resistance occurs at 1.1200 while the support stands at 1.1130.



The MACD indicator is in a negative location which signifies to sell. Meanwhile, the RSI is in a neutral zone which does not provide clear signals.

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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: June 1, 2016

The pound managed to recover from its lows. Generally, the dollar stayed solid contrary to the pound as an aftermath of Janet Yellen's speech last Friday. The market hopes for new drivers for a further activity.



The resistance occurs at the level of 1.4560 while the support stands at 1.4480.



The MACD indicator is in a negative location which signifies to sell. Meanwhile, the RSI indicator is near to the oversold zone.