Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: September 27, 2016



The Japanese yen strengthened in the middle of risk aversion and is remaining to be a safe haven currency after the Bank of Japan’s statement that the central bank is preparing to implement additional regulations which are intended to increase inflation rates did not hinder the growth of the yen’s value.

The demand for the JPY was supported by the risk-off sentiment, with the price dropping from the present Asian high of 101.00 down to the immediate support level at 100.40 where there is a decreased downward pressure. The 50, 100, and 200 EMAs all declined while the moving averages all went lower in the 4-hour chart. Resistance levels are currently at 101.40 while support levels are at 100.40 points.

The technical indicators for the currency pair are all on the downward trend. However, MACD levels are sustained at the same range which is indicative of positive sellers data. On the other hand, RSI continues to remain over the expected oversold area. The USD/JPY is generally facing a bearish stance, and a closing value at 100.40 might trigger losses and may bring down the pair to the 100.00 range. The USD/JPY may also experience a slight increase if the support for the pair is sustained.

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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: September 27, 2016



The EUR/USD pair rallied up to 1.1278 during Monday’s trading session after positive US housing date enabled investors to avoid the advancement towards a major resistance range. US new home sales went down slightly in August, dropping at a 609,000 annual rate and decreasing by 7.6% as compared to the data last July, lower than the expected 8.6% decline. The USD was also strengthened by comments from the Fed’s lacker which has stated that there is a strong possibility of an interest rate hike in December. Germany’s IFO survey has indicated that the business environment in the EU has increased significantly in September, going up to 109.5 from August’s 106.2, with increase in both the expectations and assessments sector.

The EUR/USD pair meanwhile continues to trade within its current range, suspending its recovery at main resistance levels, with a descent at 1.1615 points. The currency pair also experienced multiple intraday highs and lows within the 1.1280 trading range, and the upward potential will continue to be suspended as long as the price of the pair remains below 1.1280 points. Divergences can already be seen in the 4-hour chart, and the price continues to remain above a highly bullish 20 SMA which has already went above the 100 SMA. There is a high probability of a bearish trading session on Tuesday if there will be more decreases below the 1.1225 range. If the USD continues to strengthen, then there is a probable bearish trade point at 1.1160.

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Technical Analysis AUD/USD: September 27, 2016

Aussie is on a steady rate with US dollar even though the oil prices decreased. The AUD/USD price channel shows upward movement moving towards 0.7650. The 50-EMA also moved simultaneously in an upward direction reaching the 100 and 200 levels. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA as shown in the 4 hours chart. The resistance was measured at 0.750 while the support follows at 0.7600. The MACD was seen in a downward direction which shows the position of the buyer to be weaker. However, it still presents a signal to buy. The Relative Strength Indicator remains at neutral state.



The initial buyer’s target is at 0.7650 level. However, A sharp breakdown almost close to 0.7600 and lower could lead to further decline towards 0.7540. As long as the current 0.7600 stays at that level, the prices are expected to continue in an upward trend.

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Technical Analysis GBP/USD: September 27, 2016
The dollar still hovers in the pressured area compared to other major pairs, seeing that the stocks remains affected regarding the Fed's resolution. Traders are taking some precautionary movements for every execution because of the impact that the U.S Presidential debate might bring.
The pair experienced a downward pressured on Monday because the pound and dollar throw over their acquired profits on Friday. Moreover, the pair also indicated a steep decline against the level of support lied at 1.2900.
The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs sustained a bearish outlook. The resistance is found in the 1.3000 level, support is present in the 1.2900 level.
MACD fail off but give out strength for the sellers. RSI is positioned in the negative condition.

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Technical Analysis NZD/USD: September 28, 2016

The NZD/USD pair decreased in value after a three-day high, dropping back to the 0.73 trading range in relation to its USD counterpart. The currency pair dropped by -0.26% or 0.7284 points, hovering dangerously close to the 0.7279 trading lows during the last session. The NZD was unable to sustain its bullish bearing, mostly due to sustained weakness in oil prices and a strengthening of the USD.

The commodity currency suffered from significant decreases in oil prices caused by uncertainties in the oil output agreement between non-OPEC and OPEC oil producers. Meanwhile, the greenback was boosted by positive consumer confidence data and PMI data.

The NZD remains to be the worst currency performer during the trading session, especially now that traders are waiting for the release of China’s consumer sentiment numbers. The US durable goods data will also be released later today, as well as the weekly crude stockpiles report from the EIA.

The next resistance point for the NZD/USD pair is projected to be at 0.7297, with a possibility of extending gains up to 0.7332. Meanwhile, the downside support is expected to be at 0.7267 points to 0.7220 points.

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Technical Analysis EUR/USD: September 28, 2016

The EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.190 points during Tuesday’s session as the USD increased its trading value during the session but later lost some of its gains as Fed’s Fischer released a statement saying that as much as he does not want to have low interest rates, he wouldn’t want it to increase as much. However, Fischer also noted that he has no information with regards to the date of the expected interest rate hike from Fed. The last trading session exhibited active volatility levels, especially with Hillary Clinton’s impressive performance during the first US Presidential Debate. However, the dropping bank equities in London’s trading session affected the trades on Tuesday.

The USD also increased due to the added intraday support from highly positive macroeconomic releases, particularly with the improved Conference BC Confidence Index which is now at 104.1 from last month’s 101.8. The expansion rate of business activities also increased after a three-month dormancy, according to preliminary Markit Services and Composite PMI data. Services PMI went up to 51.9 in September as compared to August’s 51.0, while Composite PMI data also increased to 52.0 points from last month’s 51.5 points.

The EUR/USD is still primarily in the negative territory, albeit with a persistence neutral stance. The 4-hour chart for the currency pair has no clear indicators, with prices recovering after a slew of horizontal moving averages and technical indicators going above the middle range.

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Technical Analysis GBP/USD: September 28, 2016

The sterling pound is currently experiencing a downward pressure following a decrease in oil prices. The buying interest for the GBP/USD went down a few pips to have a current value slightly above the 1.3200 range. The currency’s value dropped significantly from the last trade high and went down between the 1.3200 and and 1.2940 trading range during the last session. The GBP/USD has now dropped beneath the moving averages while the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs is still experiencing a steady decline. Resistance levels are now at 1.3000 points, while support levels are at 1.2900.

MACD levels are currently in the negative but remained in its previous level which indicates that sellers are now increasing their strength. The RSI is sustained at the neutral territory while oscillator levels are expected to decrease.

Sellers would be able to break below the 1.2900 range if the GBP/USD pair would be able to stay within the negative trading range. Analysts are also expecting more sideway trades in the next few hours.

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Technical Analysis USD/CHF : September 28, 2016
The USD/CHF pair lies within the range of 0.9648/9818 and in intraday price movements remains neutral. Price from 0.9443 shows a consolidation pattern while below 0.9648 will turn downside. A break of 0.9536 will lengthen the correction from 1.0327 to 0.9443. When it breaks to 0.9949/55 in Resistance level, the only time we can conclude the decline from 1.0327. If not, it will continue in a slightly bearish outlook.
Reassuringly, there is no other big changes aside from the choppy decline from 1.0327 which can be considered as a correction. A break on 0.9955 assumes another high on 1.0327. The dismissal of 0.9955 resistance tips off another fall below 0.9443. If that transpired,a strong support within 0.9072 and 0.9256 range is expected to control downside and may lead to reversal.

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Technical Analysis USD/JPY: September 28 2016
The announcement made by Haruhiko Kuroda caused the Japanese yen to make a firm trend. Kuroda talked about the availability of the tool in order to gain the additional 2% inflation rate while the central bank ascertained that they approved the implementation of the stimulus increase if necessary.
The ascending movement run down in a moment reaching the 101.00 by which brought a price change. The pair had declined that also affected to lose its previous gains. The dollar and yen made another attempt to suspend the 100.40 level. As shown in the 4 hour chart, USD/JPY is under the selling pressure of the 50-EMA, at the same time, moving averages are in a lower position of the same chart. Resistance can be seen over the 101.40, support is identified in the 100.40 level.
MACD strengthened the sellers strength though it sustained its previous status. RSI is consolidated in the negative area.

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Technical Analysis AUD / USD: September 28, 2016

The AUDUSD remained under pressure since Monday whereas the trading price had an upward slope from 0.7612 to 0.7698. The buyers were able to control the market with more than 80 pips. This development aided the bullish investors to supplement profits.

At present, the price bounced off to 0.7672 by which derived within the 0.7649 level. This appreciation is the major turn of the pair that is a positive indication granted for the buyers so that they can have much control to optimize prices.

Predictions about the stochastic oscillator that established a bullish trend around the 40 level has greater possibility to happen. It is recommended that buyer's next target will be in the level of 0.7709 seeing that the pair recently had a price hike.

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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: September 28, 2016
The price channel of EUR/GBP pair is getting stronger shown by statistics last week. Both Stochastics and EMA moved relatively and a fairly strong reversal is expected to happen. This gives a positive outlook to the currency pair.
The pair moves upward even higher than the past few weeks and this is expected to keep on. Although, it seems that the reversal has already began that could result to a gush on sentiments by the second half of this week. The recent bearishness pushed the H4 Stochastic oscillator into the oversold area and the EMA lingers to be bullish. Hence, the selling pressure was reduced early this week and to continue to move upward. The H4 chart is hinting a recent downtrend implies that there is still a plausibility to gain momentum.
It could reach as high as 0.8760 level while if it goes a low as 0.8721 indicates an agile resistance. Fundamentals are relevant to move beyond the zone of resistance and investors should be careful with this when it reaches the 0.8721 mark.
The technical bias for this pair should remain a bullish trend from short to long term as well as the anti-GBP sentiment because of Brexit. However, a major change in sentiment could take place after the scheduled commentary from the European central bank.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – September 28, 2015 - Forecast

The GBP/USD had a significant dip of 27 points while the U.S dollar continually ascends. The price of the pounds is 1.5214 but no good to climb over the greenback that is much stronger as of today. The dollar established its stronger position after the speech of Yellen held last Thursday. On the other hand, the sterling pound had a positive improvement compared to its previous two-week low against the dollar, though the GBP loss 2 percent as of this week.

Among other main central banks, the Bank of England almost rack up the Federal Reserve since they don't have much record of lows but due to the zero inflation rate of UK the reserve bank lose its hope to reach its goal.

Furthermore, deputy governor Jon cunliffe stated that the build up of price pressure would not aid the British economy, however, the following rates of interest have the capacity to improve the country's current economic situation.

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Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: September 29, 2016

The Japanese Yen decreased its value during Wednesday’s trading session, causing the USD/JPY pair to increase its value by up to 0.257 points or +0.26% to close at 100.67 points. The increased demand for commodity currencies and stocks was caused by a report that OPEC had already consented to decreasing its overall output, which last occurred in 2008. Reliable sources from OPEC are saying that the organization would be reducing its oil outputs to 32.5 million barrels daily from its current output of 33.24 million barrels a day.

The USD started strengthening earlier during the session after a recovery of European equity markets increased the risk appetites of investors which then removed their focus from the safe haven currency. The USD/JPY benefitted from the wide-range risk-on sentiment after the statement from OPEC increased activity in the US stock market.

The US market surged primarily due to statements from Fed and a highly durable US goods report. Core Durable Goods Orders data decreased by 0.4% in August, going way below the expected reading of 0.5% and even lower than the expected July reading of 1.3%. However, DGO data was slightly better than the estimate of -1 and went significantly lower than July’s prediction of 3.6%.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: September 29 2016

As mentioned in the yesterday's forecast, the USDCAD cannot overcome the 1.3240 in spite of its effort. It is expected that the pair would suffer from indecision and reverse movement under this level while the stock exchange anticipates the latter price actions.

Looking forward for the next direction, came in big announcement from Algiers. The overall market did not foresee any impact beforehand because the participants already departed from the meeting and many thought that the session were like consultation rather than finalizing a decision. However, producers released their rulings regarding the cessation of the national output because they would focus more in the oil prices that have seen collapsing.

This resolution would be a great help for the economy of Canada, considering that the price of crude oil has a significant relation to their area of production as well as to the CAD per se. In spite of the positive news regarding oil, the pair is kept in the bullish position. This issue is difficult to recede as some of the experts had said. They also believe that the pair would still feel the effect for a few more weeks by which the economy still weakens as well as the Canadian dollar while the USD CAD will take a bullish trend.

Today, the pair is speculated to obtain the support within the 1.3000-1.3040 zones. The resistance seen in the upper region and lied over the 1.3150.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 29, 2016

Yesterday, the pair GBP/USD is in tranquil both in the Asian and European market while everyone waits for what is gonna happen next regarding speeches from Fed and European Central Bank. Despite the a big deal is about is expire that limited the price movement.

At 1.3000 the whole day yesterday had a bullish market and is forecasted to continue this day. The speeches did not give any concrete changes regarding monetary policies and still reticent with their decisions. The pair moved between 20 pips fluctuating higher or lower than 1.3000.

There is no major news in UK that is expected except the sudden report regarding oil producers meeting in Algiers. The goal is to reduce oil production to stabilise it and prevent from further downfall. This was unexpected that brought riskier assets causing Yen to ebb as well as Gold.

The pair moved as high as 1.3060 in bid and a high demand in selling that dropped down the prices to 1.3021.The bullish market will continue today as well as the support to 1.3000 and expected upside target of 1.3100 to 1.3160. Prices will not be affected as much and will depend more on technical and overall outflow in the market.