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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jun 24, 2019 11:00:56 GMT -5
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 24, 2019
The Fed hinted for a decline by 30 bp as the Fed made known their decision to go for a rate cut instead of an increase, which can have a big impact on the markets. Moreover, the bank raised their rates in the previous years without hinting of monetary easing. Yet, the market expects that this can come sooner than expected, which is also reflected in the movement of the dollar.
Hence, the euro major pair can be in a fragile position where it can move easily with the pending incoming data and any signs of a decline would open sales for the bears. In this view, this can cause a big shift in movement for the currency pair.
There is light trading for today given the minimal fundamental event, which may last throughout the day. The next important psychological level will probably be around the resistance of 1.1457. Meanwhile, the 1.1347 seems to be an attractive support level, which was the previous high at the beginning of the month. At the same time, a few confluences were seen in the ascending channel.
The level if 1.1305 is also a probable support level but there is less chance for this. However, short-term dips are needed to sustain the upward momentum. For now, there is no reason for the pair to pull back that low.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jun 25, 2019 11:46:04 GMT -5
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 25, 2019
The euro major pair was seen trading a bit lower prior to the opening of the US session. It was able to exceed the peak for five consecutive sessions before its decline. Hence, there is a chance for the common currency to close with the bearish tone with top price reversal. If this happens, the trend could result in a break for two to three days.
However, a price reversal would not necessarily change the trend downward. On the other hand, it shows that the sales are more ideal compared to buying at the current rate, which in most cases would mean that there is excessive impetus directed upward.
The main trend shows an upward direction based on the daily chart, which was confirmed by a successful breakout of buyers. Meanwhile, the trend is moving downhill when considering intraday trading when the market has a downward sentiment.
In case that the price moves to 1.1413, this would mean the dominance of buyers as they try to sustain below 1.1398 in order to have a top price reversal.
The support levels around retracement area of 1.1318 to 1.1278 should be given importance, which will also affect the short-term direction of the euro major pair.
Overall, the movement of the pair will depend on the trader’s reaction to yesterday's closing level of 1.1398. If the price stays around 1.1398 will signify the presence of buyers while a decline from the said level would signal the dominance of sellers. A breakthrough 1.1413 would emphasize the strengthening of buyers and if there is enough momentum, the price will likely look for a momentum to reach 1.1413. Furthermore, reaching the price level of 1.1448 will shift the trend upward. A price movement sustained below 1.1398 would indicate the presence of sellers with the initial target of 1.1381.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jun 27, 2019 10:22:01 GMT -5
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 27, 2019
There was less volatility for the euro major pair in the past trading sessions. A significant fundamental report from the US may have an impact on the pair but the focus will be on the expected G20 summit.
Markets are hopeful that the China-US trade war will be subdued by the summit. The future movement of the dollar is important as the markets focus on the US monetary easing amid the sluggish economy and the existence of trade war.
The US data will not exactly move the trading pair but experts anticipate the GDP numbers to progress its annualized percent by 3.1%.
Other reports will probably not influence the movement of the pair such as the weekly unemployment claims report. To be safe, it is suggested to follow the trend. The initial two readings may be against the forecast and at the same time, there were higher revisions last week. Previously, the reading came out earlier than expected.
At the moment, I would look around the level of 1.1347, which shows a peak in early June and close to the 200-MA on both the daily and weekly charts. For the record, the pair has had three drops at this area.
The pair has to move above the level of 1.1400 in order to confirm the uptrend, although this has not happened so far as investors wait for the results of the G20 meeting. Moreover, the speeches of Fed members restrained the continuation of a decline. Hence, a driver is needed for a breakout around the range of 1.1385 and 1.1400, whilst the level of 1.1347 remains to be a psychologically important figure.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jul 1, 2019 8:45:28 GMT -5
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 1, 2019
Volatility is present early this week following the previous range-bound trading of the various instruments in the market in the background of ongoing US-Sino trade talks. News on tariff and restriction to Huawei telecom company pushed the equity markets higher and pressured the dollar. Although, this may not last long.
Moreover, pessimistic forecasts of several fundamental data such as the Manufacturing PMI from European countries will further weigh on the common currency. This is in line with the global economic situation in China and Japan, as well as other Asian countries.
The euro major pair has made a significant breakdown today. Other major pairs also experienced such event as seems like a reversal in short-term. However, we should take note of the 200-MA, which is being tested by the US dollar index that could trigger the pair to decline.
Previously, the center of interest was on the fall of the pair at the level of 1.1347. Aside from it being the resistance level, it had a confluence on the 200-MA on the daily and weekly chart.
As for the support, there were several attempts until it broke down earlier this day, which can become the resistance level. Staying on the levels below could induce a correction to the pair and likely to rise higher than 1.1385, which will be favorable for the EUR/USD bulls.
For now, we can expect strong support at 1.1305 with confluence to the 100-MA on the 4-hour chart. Overall, the short-term gives a bearish tone and a breakout to 1.1385 would confirm the continuation of the previously bullish sentiment in the markets.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jul 2, 2019 9:56:55 GMT -5
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 2, 2019
The euro major pair has been the top currency pair for the week so far. Also, the dollar is above the Swiss franc than other major currency pairs while it is not doing well for the Canadian dollar.
The EUR/USD decline for this week is mainly due to a stronger dollar, following the trade news between China and the US. Also, it seems that the Fed speeches have also limited the earlier rally of the pair in the second half of June.
Earlier this week, the pair is gaining a downward momentum and dropped below the significant confluence close to support of 1.1350, marking the 200-MA. At the same time, the US dollar index was found to have reached the 200-MA. This opens the opportunity to short the dollar but this is still not yet confirmed.
The next support level will probably at 1.1365 and gave a significant amount of resistance in the past. Over this area, there is a chance for testing the support level of 1.1237, where there is a lot of confluence and also likely to hold buyers. Nonetheless, the pair is far from plunging lower but we can rely on selling in times of rallies for short-term. The trend will likely go up and the present decline may offer an opportunity for a long trade.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jul 3, 2019 10:39:48 GMT -5
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 3, 2019
This week began with a decline and the momentum of the EUR/USD pair may have lost. The pair closed on a flat after a failed rally higher than the level of 1.1300. The most recent news on the trade truce between the US and China is the root of strength for the dollar but this may not move steadily.
Another important factor is the gold prices as it moves relative to the economic developments in the US. The yellow metal almost broke down to fresh six year-high that could mean that the increase of the dollar may be almost over.
Today, data from ADP on employment is expected which will give a hint on the US labor market. Thursday is a holiday and this can bring volatility after the closing of the European session.
The indicator was seen at the level of 1.1260 and close to the 100-MA. A strong confluence is possible around 1.1265, which can become resistance and was the peak in the month of May. This kept the pair lower after a few tries and was successfully broken at the beginning of June.
Reaching the level upward to 1.1300 can become difficult. A horizontal level can be at 1.1305 on the daily chart. However, looking at it, a steady move to 1.1300 is needed by bulls.
On the other end, a breakdown lower than the support confluence with the next target at the horizontal level of 1.1237, which is also where the rising channel moves downward since the low level in May.
Nonetheless, the US jobs data to be released today and on Friday may cause a bullish reversal. At the same time, trading may be thin given that tomorrow is a holiday.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jul 4, 2019 10:11:03 GMT -5
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 4, 2019
The EUR/USD pair may move close to the bottom and the present bounce off is due to the trade talks between China and the US on the weekend. In turn, this resulted in a correlation across the financial markets.
The 10-year Treasury yields rallied from 2% while gold prices dropped lower than $1400 following a breakout in the previous week. The equity market is under pressure given that the S&P 500 drops from the resistance on the longer timeframe. It is not surprising that the dollar index bounced off more than the 200-DMA.
A divergence between the dollar and other trading instruments has important in considering the trading since the dollar has not undergone a reversal like other assets. Yet, it is also not that logical to expect the euro major pair will further go down present the given fundamental event even looking at how aggressive the market sets in easing in July. Nonetheless, the pair seems to have been trading for just about 1.5% from the multi-year lows.
There is significant confluence in the support close to the trading area which is at the 100-MA and the lower bound channel at 1.1264.
Bull traders will meet an obstruction at 1.1305, which pushed the pair lower yesterday.
The data of NFP on Friday will bring in some volatility to the pair. For now, the pair will likely to continue in consolidating within the range. Support is expected to be close to 1.1264 and the markets are probably not assured with the short-term trade war truce.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jul 5, 2019 10:25:48 GMT -5
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 5, 2019
Analysts are looking hoping for growth in the labor market after it failed to meet expectations of previous month’s reading. The job report for today will determine the course of the Fed in July since the strength of labor will have a significant role in the action of Fed. Hence, an exceeding report can result for an easing or the other way around.
The Euro major pair is in the important situation prior to the release of the jobs report given that there is downward confluence on the support. For the past couple of days, the pair was seen consolidating above.
In particular, there is a horizontal level at 1.1264, which held the pair twice below in May. The 100-MA was close around this area enough for a confluence.
Furthermore, there is a support as it bounces below in the rising channel from previous lows in late May. Moreover, there is a 61.8% retracement found from middle of June lows, as well in the 50% retracement from May lows close to the level of 1.1264.
Given the confluence below on the support level, the results for NFP data has to come out with positive results in order for the EUR/USD pair to close below. The data will have a major impact on short-term trend. Yet, the resistance above keeps the pair lower at the beginning of the week. A bullish breakout will confirm the beginning of trend reversal.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jul 9, 2019 10:30:59 GMT -5
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 9, 2019
The US dollar’s performance surpassed expectations at the beginning of the week as it pushes the price to lows not since the middle of June. When the rate cut is revised, this may being a surge in the pair.
Yesterday, the psychological level is at 1.1888, which was both a support and resistance in the past. Recently, the level was kept higher in the month of June. The pair tried to approach the level early this morning and even look for a breakout below for a short while. It could prompt stops below the mid-level low in June.
If the breakout holds, the next target for support will likely be around 1.1135. The major support is centered at 1.1188. However, this have minimal chances before the Fed rhetoric, which is anticipated to influence the movement of the pair in the next few days. At the same time, this will confirm the positioning of the central bank. Overall, it is important to be heedful in trading given this background.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jul 12, 2019 10:54:14 GMT -5
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 12, 2019
Forecast for consumer prices shows a higher increase in June. The most recent report showed a growth of 0.1 for the month CPI and 0.3% for the Core CPI. Overall, the figures have exceeded expectations.
Rising inflation may affect the rally of the euro major pair given that the weaker dollar was driven this week by expectations on monetary policy easing.
The dollar index (DXY) dropped more than half of the percent from the most recent high amid the rhetorics of Powell. On yesterday’s CPI data, the index rose and was able to close unchanged.
A Doji pattern was also seen on the euro major pair, which shows some exhaustion. This follows the possibility that the CPI data may hinder the upward movement of the pair, at least for short-term. Along with the Doji pattern, the pair closed below the 100-MA and was unsuccessful to break higher than the indicator, which will not be favorable for the bulls. As of the moment, the price is trading beyond it. The upward movement seems to be limited by the resistance of 1.1265 so far.
The pair has to maintain a breakthrough above 1.1280 in order to confirm the ascending movement here. This will negatively affect yesterday’s exhaustion candle. On the other end, if the pair closes once again below the 100-MA, traders can expect for the weakened state at the beginning of next week.
It may not be easy to continue the recovery of the pair but as stated, there is some strong resistance at 1.1305on the 4-hour chart and be limited around 1.1265. There is also a chance for the pair to retreat to the horizontal level of 1.1237 below.
There is a minimal chance for the euro major pair to recover in the background of a few fundamental news and technical limitations to limit the pair's move to go higher. The pair is also likely to close in relation to the 100-MA, which would have a big impact on next week’s trading.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jul 16, 2019 10:37:55 GMT -5
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 16, 2019
Looking back at what happened last week, the dollar had gone weaker after Fed chair became more dovish than anticipated. However, with the presence of resistance on the upside and range support, the EUR/USD pair could stay range-bound.
Nonetheless, the market will monitor the upcoming data to assess the probability of Fed easing at the end of the month. The highest impact will probably be the initial release of the second quarter of GDP. Hence, the momentum in the euro and other currency pairs paired with greenback will probably slow down.
As we can see, the impact of Powell rhetorics will probably lessen this week, considering that the future markets will prepare to set the price after aggressive easing at the end of the month. Meanwhile, the likelihood of rate cut by 50 basis points grew to 3 from 1.
The euro major pair was previously seen testing the confluence of support at 1.1237 and the 50-MA.
It seems that there is a lot of trading at the start of this week. However, it less likely to break lower and at the same time, thinking that the top resistance is opposing the dollar index.
Overall, volatility may be a bit slow prior to the release of data, which will have a say to the chances of a rate cut. In the short-term, a rally is probable at 1.1265 with the presence of sellers.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jul 17, 2019 10:56:47 GMT -5
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 17, 2019
Markets are still not sure on how the Fed will be on the next meeting scheduled at the end of the month. Rhetorics from Fed member, Evans has triggered a deep decline last week by half a percent at the end of the year. Investors are following the data releases closely, concerned by the possibility of the ECB to follow the Fed in monetary easing.
Yesterday, the euro major pair dropped below the support of 1.1237. Consequently, the pair broke to the range which was sustained for almost a week. The fall of the trend opened the path to the psychological handle of 1.1200 and further below seems attractive.
The support of 1.1188 remained higher in the middle of June, which then resulted to a rally above 1.1400. In turn, this will be the border limit for the EUR/USD bulls.
In the short-term, traders will likely to meet resistance to the level of 1.1237, which was the lower border in the previous range. It may push the pair above 1.1265 to make it attractive for bulls. After a break in the range, bears have taken over for short-period of time.
After the inflation headline, the euro major pair rose slightly from support with an upward resistance met at 1.1237 as mentioned earlier. The next downward level will probably 1.1188 to be significant.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jul 18, 2019 10:44:04 GMT -5
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 18, 2019
A weakened dollar influenced a recovery rally from the euro major pair. With the market expected to have an aggressive easing, it seems that the push is not likely to reach a higher break.
Moreover, we have to keep in mind the bullish engulfing candle in DXY following optimistic retail sales on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the US dollar index declines for the second successive trading hours after the sharp increase of retail sales.
The EUR/USD pair tests the horizontal level of 1.1237. So far, the trend moves with an upward direction for the week so far. An important confluence on the resistance should also be noted.
At the same time, a confluence to 1.1245 with the 50- and 100-MA, which was the peak for the day so far. Below, the 1.1200 handle keeps the pair higher and remains major support in the short-term.
For the week, there is no market data anticipated for the week, unless a headline comes out to influence the market. Hence, a drop in volatility is likely.
Overall, even if the greenback weakens today, the euro major pair may have less trading. At the beginning of the day, the common currency is in a flat state. Meanwhile, the Sterling pound has been the strongest contender as the UK sales on retail push the pair higher.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jul 22, 2019 11:14:23 GMT -5
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 22, 2019
There were volatile movements last week as Fed members give their opinions with a majority seems to be tilting to policy easing. However, one Fed member opinion to wait should be noted. This results in a sharp decline in the pair and surge in volatility on different assets on Friday.
Thereby, markets focal point will be on the ECB with an expected schedule on Thursday.
Previously, the ECB had a hawkish sentiment, which is unexpected and furthermore, the price hike is postponed but it still in consideration.
On the other hand, the ECB president gives off a dovish sentiment since the postponement, which is hoping to be confirmed on the upcoming Thursday meeting.
Meanwhile, markets are still eyeing the Fed but are expected to diminish in the coming week. Aside from the ECB meeting, the Fed has this “blackout period” as they remain quiet without any interviews. Although, this will likely be transient.
Lastly, the latest GDP data will be published from the US on Friday, which is considered important prior to the meeting of the central bank.
It seems that the pair tries to break a flag pattern that gives a bullish sentiment considering last week’s rally. However, given the sharp drop from Thursday high, I don’t have high hopes for a bullish flag.
Moreover, it seems that the euro major pair is placed between the 1.1200 and 1.1280. For now, the pair is at the lower limit of the range. The declining trend following a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart is likely to put pressure on the recovery rally of the pair in the next trading hours.
If the pair breaks beyond the range early this week, we can expect strong trading, where the ECB becomes the main driver in the direction for this week movement. Hence, the attention of investors will be directed to the ECB actions if they will also proceed with policy easing.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jul 23, 2019 11:26:43 GMT -5
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 23, 2019
The euro currency keeps on declining as traders look for chances of sell stops on Tuesday with the anticipation of the ECB chief Draghi, to reduce rates in September to be discussed on ECB policy meeting on the 25th of the month.
Earlier, the trend declined when the sellers were able to work out the 1.1200 with the main trend is now in a downward direction. Afterwhich, the price pushed to the main level below at 1.1193 and 1.1181.
Sellers were also able to break through the long-term Fibo level of 1.1185 with the resistance level from 1.1278 to 1.1318. As a result, the euro major pair has a bearish trend.
At the moment, the price is found at 1.1178 and the future movement of the pair will highly depend on traders' reaction to the Fibo level of 1.1185.
If the price stays below 1.1185, this would mean the dominance of sellers and further movement to 1.1181 would mean a stronger presence of sellers. This could result in a break to 1.1161, which was previous support prior to the main bottoms at 1.1116 (May 30) and 1.1107 (May 23).
On the other hand, returning to the level of 1.1185 would mean the presence of buyers. In turn, this could lead to resistance levels of 1.12143/15. However, we should look for sellers and break to 1.1215 could mean faster acceleration to the upper level.
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