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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jan 8, 2020 9:33:28 GMT -5
USD/CAD. January 08, 2020 – Canadian dollar remains at local highs
Oil continues to trade at local highs ($69 per barrel), supporting all commodity currencies, including the Canadian dollar. At the same time, pressure on currencies is exerted by risk aversion amid escalation of the military conflict between the US and Iran. The current CAD quote is 1.3000.
It should be noted that the Canadian dollar is the least vulnerable to risk aversion, since the Canadian economy mainly has support of the US market. This fact allows looney quotes to stabilize in the area of local maximums.
In addition, a further increase in oil prices can completely neutralize the risk aversion factor, an this will allow the USD/CAD pair to continue to decline to 1.3150.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jan 9, 2020 5:46:48 GMT -5
Fundamental analysis of Brent. January 09, 2020
Brent crude oil failed to stay in the region above $70, and today we see quotes decline to around $65.50 per barrel. Pressure on prices was exerted by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East: despite Tehran's attacks on US military bases in Iraq, Donald Trump refrained from further retaliatory measures.
The American president said that he was against further escalation of the military conflict, noting his intention to confine himself to new economic barriers in the form of tougher sanctions against Iran.
In addition to the Middle East conflict, a report from the US Department of Energy on changes in crude oil reserves acted as a factor of pressure on oil prices. According to the latest data, oil reserves rose 1.2 million barrels, after falling for three consecutive weeks. Experts predicted a reduction in reserves of 3.5 million barrels.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jan 10, 2020 8:32:59 GMT -5
EUR/USD. January 10, 2020 – The dollar remains strong at 1.11
The EUR/USD pair remains stable just below 1.1100. The ending week was rich in publications on the American labor market. On Wednesday, data on the number of jobs in the private sector from ADP came out, which reflected an increase of 202 thousand against a growth a month earlier by 124 thousand. The forecast assumed an increase of 140 thousand.
Yesterday, data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits for the week were presented: the number of Americans first applying for benefits fell to a minimum level of 5 weeks. The indicator decreased by 9 thousand – to 214 thousand.
Today, attention should be paid to the release of statistics on the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP). Experts believe that the indicator grew in December by 266 thousand after an increase of 162 thousand in November. Average hourly wages are expected to increase by 0.2% in monthly terms.
Thus, such strong statistics providing significant support to the US currency will allow the dollar to consolidate below the level of 1.11.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jan 13, 2020 8:01:19 GMT -5
EUR/USD. January 13, 2020 – Dollar is under pressure from weak labor market data
The euro is showing some growth at the beginning of the new trading week. The current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.1115. The dollar was pressured last week by the publication of weak US labor market data for December. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector last month rose only 145 thousand against the forecast of expansion by 162 thousand. A similar indicator for November was fixed at around 256 thousand.
The average hourly earnings, according to current statistics, increased in December by only 0.1% mom. A month earlier, the indicator rose 0.3% m/m, a similar increase was expected now. At the same time, the unemployment rate remained stable at 3.5%, as predicted.
Thus, the dollar responded with a decline in this data. During the day, we do not expect sharp price spikes; the pair will continue to fluctuate slightly in the region above 1.11.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jan 14, 2020 7:43:17 GMT -5
GBP/USD. January 14, 2020 – Pound weakens since the beginning of the year
The British currency stopped its decline at 1.2950 and managed to stabilize below the level of 1.3000. Earlier, weak data on industrial production in the UK put pressure on the sterling exchange rate. According to statistics, the volume of industrial production in the country in November fell by 1.2% on a monthly basis against the growth of 0.4% m/m in October.
Manufacturing output also showed a decline in November – by 1.7% m/m. At the same time, the volume of production in the construction sector recovered after the October fall by 2.2% m/m, showing an increase of 1.9% m/m.
British GDP data also disappointed the markets: the economy slowed down by 0.3% on a monthly basis after rising 0.1% in October. Experts note that such figures reflect the weakest growth rate of the British economic system over the past 7 years.
As a result, the pound fell from 1.33 to 1.30 in just a couple of weeks.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jan 15, 2020 8:16:49 GMT -5
EUR/USD. January 15, 2020 – Euro weakly grows to 1,1150
The pair EUR/USD today is growing moderately to around 1,1150 in anticipation of the signing of the first phase trade agreement between the US and China. It is noted that although the States are still ready to halve 15% duties on Chinese goods worth $120 billion, duties on the remaining $360 billion of Chinese imports will remain at a rate of 25%.
This suggests that the parties failed to reach an agreement on the main trade issues, which could cool the optimism of investors in the future.
Today, the European currency was supported by data on the industrial production of the eurozone. The indicator grew by 0.2% in November, in contrast to the fall of -0.9% in October. Nevertheless, recent data turned out to be worse than analysts' forecasts, expecting an increase of 0.3%. Thus, the EUR/USD pair will continue to grow moderately throughout the day.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jan 16, 2020 8:52:21 GMT -5
EUR/USD. January 16, 2020 – Euro faintly grows amid the results of signing a deal between the US and China
Yesterday, the euro showed moderate growth to the level of 1.1160 after signing the first-phase trade agreement between the US and China. The deal obliges China to increase purchases of American goods by $200 billion from the 2017 level, as well as to avoid manipulating the exchange rate and taking additional measures in the issue of protecting intellectual property of American technologies.
The United States, in turn, promised to reduce duties on Chinese goods in the amount of $120 billion from the current 15% to 7.5% and give up duties on the remaining Chinese imports. At the same time, 25% duties on $360 billion will remain unchanged. However, the US President noted that the issue of reducing these tariffs can be considered when discussing the second stage of the transaction. The results of the meeting did not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair, although they reduced the overall tension on world sites.
Today, attention should be paid to the publication of the minutes of the ECB meeting and the speech of the head of the European regulator K. Lagarde. As you know, next week there will be a meeting of the European Central Bank, at which the regulator will present a new monetary policy strategy in Europe.
Also today the United States will provide data on changes in retail sales for December and the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. Moreover, you should pay attention to the NAHB January Housing Market Index.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jan 17, 2020 8:17:29 GMT -5
EUR/USD. January 17, 2020 – Euro is down to 1.11
The Euro moved lower to 1.1100 after the release of data on retail sales in the United States and the business activity index from the Philadelphia Fed. The growth of the first indicator remained at the level of 0.3% m/m, and business activity increased from 2.4 to 17.0.
Together with that, the European currency was pressured today by data on inflation in Europe. The growth rate of consumer prices in the Eurozone accelerated to 1.3%, and in all EU countries – to 1,6%.
An important event that can influence the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair next week will be the ECB meeting. If the regulator's rhetoric turns out to be tougher than at the end of last year, the Euro will receive significant support and will be able to return to the 1.1200 area.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jan 20, 2020 8:02:04 GMT -5
EUR/USD. January 20, 2020 – Euro started to decline again
The euro has been declining for the third week in a row. The current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.1080. However, experts believe that soon the European currency will be able to return to the medium-term ascending channel, which started from the beginning of December 2019.
The outflow of capital to the stock market may contribute to the growth of the currency, caused by the decline in tension in trade relations between the US and China after the conclusion of the first phase trade agreement last week.
This week, you should pay attention to the Index of sentiments in the business environment of Germany (01.21). Analysts predict a decline from 10.7 to 4.3 points, which may slightly weaken the euro. On Thursday, the ECB will unveil its decision on the interest rate and hold a press conference with the leadership of the European regulator. On Friday, market attention will be attracted by a series of publications of estimated indicators of business activity both in Germany and in the eurozone as a whole.
Today will be a calm day, as US sites are closed due to the celebration of Martin Luther King National Day.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jan 21, 2020 8:08:51 GMT -5
EUR/USD. January 21, 2020 – Euro strengthens after ZEW data release
The euro started to grow again, breaking the 1.1100 mark. Today, amid a large number of reports about the spread of the new coronavirus in China, all risky assets have come under pressure.
During the day, the euro will continue its moderate strengthening, having received support after the publication of the index of economic expectations from ZEW in Germany in January. The indicator unexpectedly increased significantly – to the level of 26.7 points from 10.7. Analysts had expected the index to rise to only 15.0 points. Fresh data peaked since July 2015.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jan 22, 2020 8:41:42 GMT -5
EUR/USD. January 22, 2020 – Euro below 1.11 under the pressure of several factors
The US dollar started to rise today, receiving support after the American president's statement about the imminent start of negotiations with China on the second stage of the trade deal. In addition, Trump said that the new budget of the country is planning an amendment to reduce taxes on the middle class, which will be able to support the growth of the American economy. As a result, the EUR/USD pair fell to the level of 1.1075.
Yesterday, however, the Euro made attempts to grow after the publication of the ZEW economic expectations index in Germany, which rose to 26.7 – the highest level since 2015. In addition to pressure from the strengthening dollar, the euro also received a portion of the negativity after another statement by D. Trump. The American president said that the United States can immediately impose duties on imports of European cars and restrictive measures on goods from France, if the parties do not reach a trade agreement in the near future.
Thus, today the European currency will be trading below the level of 1.11.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jan 23, 2020 8:16:57 GMT -5
EUR/USD. January 23, 2020 – Euro is trading in the range of 1.1070-1.1100
Sentiments at global sites continue to deteriorate amid further reports of the spread of coronavirus in China. Chinese authorities have already closed the exit from Wuhan, which is the city-epicenter of the disease.
Thus, the euro remains below the level of 1.11. At the same time, the dollar was supported by D. Trump's reports that a plan to lower taxes on the middle-classed Americans will be prepared over the next 90 days.
Today, attention should be paid to the ECB meeting and the press conference of the head of the regulator K. Lagarde. Market participants expect that the rate will be maintained at -0.5%, and Lagarde will present the announcement of a revision of the regulator’s long-term monetary strategy. In anticipation of this event, the EUR/USD pair will trade in the range of 1.1070-1.1100.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jan 24, 2020 8:34:35 GMT -5
USD/CAD. January 24, 2020 – Looney fell after a meeting of the Bank of Canada
Yesterday, the USD/CAD pair managed to grow to the level of 1.3170, but today the Canadian currency is showing some strengthening to 1.3130. The loony weakened after the announcement of the results of the Bank of Canada meeting. The regulator decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, noting that a decrease in the future is possible if the pace of economic recovery continues to slow down.
In addition, the Central Bank lowered its forecast for economic growth in the IV quarter to 0.3% against 1.3%, which was forecasted in October.
Additional pressure on the «Canadian» was provided by data on the consumer price index, according to which inflation in Canada in December remained unchanged at 2.2%. The situation in the oil market also does not give optimism. Oil quotes also continue to decline amid the threat of the spread of coronavirus from China around the world.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jan 27, 2020 7:44:17 GMT -5
EUR/USD. January 27, 2020 – Euro declines to 1.10
The sentiments on global sites remains negative due to the further spread of coronavirus in China. To date, nearly 3,000 cases have been reported in China, and 80 cases have already been fatal. As a result, the pair EUR/USD fell to the level of 1.1015. Pressure on the euro had Friday's data on business PMI in the eurozone. Despite the fact that the indicator turned out to be better than expected (47.8 vs 46.8), it still remains below 50 points, which indicates a further reduction in business activity in the EU manufacturing sector.
This week, attention should be paid to the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be held on Wednesday (January 29). Analysts predict that the rate will remain unchanged. At the same time, the regulator can indicate its policy on injecting dollar liquidity into the system.
If the Fed expresses its readiness to continue purchasing treasury bills, this could support risky assets and limit negative market sentiment. Today, during the day, the euro will continue to fluctuate near the level of 1.10.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Jan 28, 2020 9:08:28 GMT -5
GBP/USD. January 28, 2020 – Sterling drops to 1.30
The pound continues to decline actively, having approached the level of 1.30. This week is very important for the British currency – on Thursday a meeting of the Bank of England will take place, at which the regulator can soften its monetary policy.
In addition, January 31 is the date of Brexit, when the UK will officially cease to be part of the European Union. This event could lead to increased market volatility.
Additional pressure on the sterling is provided by the general strengthening of the US dollar, which has received support, as investors tend to invest in less risky assets amid the spread of concerns about the Chinese coronavirus.
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