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Post by kostiaforexmart on Feb 19, 2020 8:14:44 GMT -5
USD/CAD. February 19, 2020 – Looney grows in anticipation of inflation data
Today, the USD/CAD pair is showing a decline after strong growth the day before. The instrument continues to move within the trading range of 1.32-1.33, reacting to the publication of macroeconomic data from the US and Canada.
Yesterday, the US dollar managed to grow to 1.3280 after the release of data on business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York: in February the index rose from 4.8 to 12.9 points. Statistics from Canada, on the contrary, reflected a decline in production sales in December by 0.7% m/m after a decline of 1% m/m last month.
However, today Canadian dollar began to grow in anticipation of data on the consumer price index of Canada, which will be published today in the evening. Experts expect annual inflation to rise to 2.3% in January against growth to 2.2% in December. If the forecast is confirmed, the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will decide to mitigate monetary policy will decrease significantly, and the Canadian dollar will receive an incentive for further growth.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Feb 20, 2020 8:16:39 GMT -5
EUR/USD. February 20, 2020 – Euro sideways at 1.08
The euro is moving horizontally at the level 1.0800. Market dynamics remain calm in the absence of negative news on the topic of coronavirus. The US dollar is still strong reacting to comments from the Fed on the stability of the US economy.
Thursday is not rich in significant events, the pair will continue to fluctuate slightly near the level of 1.08. Tomorrow you should pay attention to the publication of PMI indices in the EU and the US. If the indices turn out to be worse than expected, this could reduce the risk appetite on global markets at the end of the week.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Feb 21, 2020 10:05:02 GMT -5
EUR/USD. February 21, 2020 – Dollar continues to strengthen
Negative sentiment at global sites has been rising again due to a sharp increase in the number of coronavirus infected in South Korea. At the same time, the markets continue to trend towards the strengthening of the US dollar, which is growing in tandem with the main currency competitors.
Yesterday, the Philadelphia Fed index of business activity was published, which rose sharply to 36.7 points. Positive regional data give reason to expect an increase in the ISM business activity index for the United States as a whole, which supports the dollar.
Statistics on business activity in Europe were published today. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) in Germany increased from the level of 45.3 to 47.8 points. Experts predicted a decline to 44.8. The IHS Markit composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) in France also rose – to 51.9 points in February from 51.1 in January. Analysts predicted a value of 51.0 points.
However, these statistics provided the euro only temporary support – the pair managed to rise slightly above the 1.08 level, but the growth was quickly replaced by a decline. During the day, the euro will continue to fall to an area below 1.08.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Feb 25, 2020 8:18:25 GMT -5
EUR/USD. February 25, 2020 – Euro under pressure amid the spread of coronavirus in Italy
Sentiments at global sites are again deteriorating amid a sharp increase in the number of coronavirus cases outside of China. Northern Italy became the new epicenter of the outbreak, where more than 200 cases of the disease are currently recorded. This situation puts pressure on the European currency, since the further spread of the disease can lead to a significant decrease in the GDP of European countries in the future.
The pair EUR/USD continues to move in the range of 1.08-1.09. The current euro quote is 1.0830. Yesterday, the currency rose significantly after the German business climate index IFO was released: the indicator unexpectedly rose to 96.1 points, while analysts expected a decline to 95.3.
Today we should pay attention to the speech of Richard Clarida from the Fed – the politician intends to highlight the impact of coronavirus on the US economy and to clarify the further course of movement of the monetary policy of the Fed.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Feb 26, 2020 8:47:46 GMT -5
EUR/USD. February 26, 2020 – Euro declines from 1.09
Negative sentiment continues to dominate global markets as investors fear the coronavirus epidemic could escalate into a global pandemic. As you know, the number of cases outside of China continues to grow steadily.
Yesterday, US President Donald Trump announced that the vaccine against the virus would be ready soon, and also announced the upcoming cut in taxes on the middle class in the United States, but this news did not support the dollar. The current quotation of the pair is 1.0870.
The euro has been strengthening for several days. Currency is supported by technical factors: most carry trade operations in emerging markets are funded by the euro, which is strengthened when investors withdraw from risky assets.
However, the coronavirus continues to spread throughout Europe, which puts European currency at risk. During the day, we expect a decrease in the euro from the level of 1.09.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Feb 27, 2020 8:32:12 GMT -5
EUR/USD. February 27, 2020 – Euro skyrocketed to 1.0950
The euro today shows a significant increase, up to 1.0950. Currency is supported by technical factors: most carry trade operations in emerging markets are funded by the euro, which is strengthened when investors withdraw from risky assets. And risk appetite at global sites continues to decline amid further growth in the spread of coronavirus outside of China.
However, the growth of the euro is unlikely to be long-term, since the US dollar is still strong, and macroeconomic data from the US continue to signal the stability of the US economy. Sales of new homes in the US in January rose to 764 thousand against 708 thousand a month earlier. The price of a new house also increased – by 14% in January.
Today, you should pay attention to the speeches by the ECB President Christine Lagarde and Evans from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, as well as the release of statistics on US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2019. The indicator is expected at 2.1%.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Feb 28, 2020 8:28:18 GMT -5
USD/CAD. February 28, 2020 – Canadian dollar updates lows
The Canadian dollar is showing a strong fall at the end of the week. The current quotation of the USD/CAD pair is 1.3465. The main pressure on the loonie rate is provided by the situation in the oil market, where Brent quotes fell below the level of $50 per barrel. Prices fell to a minimum of two years, as investors fear that the coronavirus epidemic could be the biggest shock to the economy since the 2008 crisis.
Next week, the Bank of Canada will hold a meeting at which the regulator may surprise market participants with a lower rate, despite the main forecast assuming that the rate remains at 1.75%. The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee is gradually lowering its confidence regarding the weak influence of coronavirus on the country's economy.
Today, attention should be paid to the publication of quarterly and monthly reports on GDP. Analysts expect a significant slowdown in growth in the IV quarter, so the Canadian dollar may continue to fall to 1.35.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Mar 2, 2020 8:31:43 GMT -5
EUR/USD. March 2, 2020 – Euro reaches 1.11
Investors' appetite for risky assets on global markets is moderately recovering after the world's leading central banks announced their readiness to maintain economic activity in the face of the risks associated with the spread of coronavirus.
On Friday, the US Federal Reserve announced that the regulator intends to use monetary policy instruments to maintain the country's economy. Market participants expect that the key rate in the US will be reduced immediately by 50 bp. already at the March meeting. The readiness to take large-scale measures on the eve was also expressed by the Central Bank of Japan.
Thus, the EUR/USD pair continues to grow, almost closely approaching the level of 1.1100. However, the European currency is still under pressure from the further spread of the coronavirus throughout Europe. Therefore, the pair may show a slight decrease from level 67,00.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Mar 3, 2020 7:35:55 GMT -5
EUR/USD. March 03, 2020 – Euro firmly fixed above 1.11
The euro did not manage to overcome the level of 1.1185 and it again started to decline to the area of 1.11. At global sites, the appetite for risky assets is recovering after the ECB, the US Federal Reserve and other world Central Banks announced their readiness for additional monetary stimulation of the economy to mitigate the detrimental effects of coronavirus. Moreover, today representatives of G7 countries will discuss a package of measures aimed at minimizing the consequences of the epidemic.
Today is not rich in significant macro statistics, and the dynamics of trading will be determined mainly by the news background on the topic of coronavirus. However, you should pay attention to inflation data in the eurozone. Consumer price growth slowed from 1.4% in January to 1.2% in February.
The euro continues to strengthen from the level of 1.11. During the day, «eurobulls» will rise to the level of 1.1150.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Mar 4, 2020 8:17:06 GMT -5
EUR/USD. February 04, 2020 – Dollar weakens after unplanned US Fed rate cut
The US dollar came under pressure after an unexpected decision by the US Federal Reserve to lower the interest rate by 50 bp, without waiting for the meeting scheduled for March 18. The last time a rate cut outside a scheduled regulator meeting in the US occurred during the 2008 crisis.
Such actions by the authorities may signal that the risks of a recession in the US economy are still great. Moreover, today in the markets there is a restoration of appetite for risky assets. As a result, the pair EUR/USD rose to the level of 1.1215.
Today, you should pay attention to the US labor market data from ADP, as well as the publication of the ISM index in the non-manufacturing sector of the economy. In the case of weak data, the risk appetite in the evening hours may worsen, which will allow the dollar to somewhat regain its position in pair with the euro. The current quotation of the pair is 1.1150.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Mar 4, 2020 8:18:57 GMT -5
EUR/USD. March 04, 2020 – Dollar weakens after unplanned US Fed rate cut
The US dollar came under pressure after an unexpected decision by the US Federal Reserve to lower the interest rate by 50 bp, without waiting for the meeting scheduled for March 18. The last time a rate cut outside a scheduled regulator meeting in the US occurred during the 2008 crisis.
Such actions by the authorities may signal that the risks of a recession in the US economy are still great. Moreover, today in the markets there is a restoration of appetite for risky assets. As a result, the pair EUR/USD rose to the level of 1.1215.
Today, you should pay attention to the US labor market data from ADP, as well as the publication of the ISM index in the non-manufacturing sector of the economy. In the case of weak data, the risk appetite in the evening hours may worsen, which will allow the dollar to somewhat regain its position in pair with the euro. The current quotation of the pair is 1.1150.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Mar 5, 2020 9:19:55 GMT -5
EUR/USD. March 05, 2020 – The euro slowed down its growth at the level of 1.12
The level of 1.1200 restrains further growth of the European currency, the current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.1170. The day before the US dollar was under pressure after an unexpected Fed rate cut by 50 bp at once. However, yesterday evening this pressure slightly decreased amid the publication of strong labor market data from ADP and the ISM index in the service sector, which in February rose from 55.5 to 57.3.
Today it became known that the California authorities in the United States announced an emergency mode because of the risks of the coronavirus spread, and Italy decided to close schools until March 15 in the fight against the epidemic. The news signals that the risks of a recession in many economies are still extremely high.
Today you should pay attention to the weekly statistics on initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Experts predict a decrease in the number of calls from 219 thousand to 215 thousand.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Mar 6, 2020 5:24:44 GMT -5
EUR/USD. March 06, 2020 – Euro approaches 1.13 high
The euro continues to increase the pace of strengthening, approaching the level of 1.1300. Pressure on the dollar was exerted by an unplanned reduction in the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve, reflecting the fears of the authorities about the presence of significant risks in the country's economic system.
Moreover, the Fed rate can be cut by another 25 basis points (from the current target range of 1.00-1.25% per annum) at the meeting on March 18-19. This could trigger a wave of sales of the American currency and send the pair to the 1.1400 area.
The spread of coronavirus in Europe remains high, which puts pressure on risky assets. Today's statistics on the US labor market may have an additional negative impact on risk and dollar if the current data are below forecast. In case of further deterioration in risk appetite, the euro will continue to receive support in the Forex market.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Mar 10, 2020 8:14:27 GMT -5
EUR/USD. March 10, 2020 – Euro fell from highs to 1.1325
The growth of the European currency was stopped by the level of 1.15 – EUR/USD quotes fell on Tuesday to around 1.1325. Yesterday, a drop in the oil market to $32 per barrel triggered a collapse of major indices around the world. In addition, the continued spread of coronavirus outside of China also continues to put pressure on world markets.
It became known that Italy introduced a regime of emergency measures to combat the virus throughout the country, and the head of WHO said that the outbreak of the virus is already very close to becoming a pandemic. The presence and further spread of coronavirus in Europe puts pressure on the euro.
The US dollar, in turn, is under the negative impact of rising yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds and expectations of a Fed rate cut immediately by 70 bp. on the meeting of the American regulator on March 18.
During the day, the EUR/USD pair will continue to grow from the level of 1.1325.
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Post by kostiaforexmart on Mar 11, 2020 7:54:01 GMT -5
EUR/USD. March 11, 2020 – The pair near 1.13 in anticipation of US inflation data
The US stock market is gradually recovering after the collapse on Monday, and investor sentiment on global markets remains relatively optimistic. The current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.1300. The dollar received some support after U.S. President Donald Trump discussed payroll tax cuts with Republican officials as part of tax breaks.
However, the further spread of coronavirus outside of China still retains the risks of further sales in the financial markets. The number of cases worldwide continues to increase. In the USA, in particular, the number of cases has already exceeded 1000 people.
Today, attention should be paid to inflation data in the United States, which may reflect its deceleration from 2.5% to 2.2%. Amid the expectation of another Fed rate cut at the March meeting, this slowdown could trigger a wave of sales of the US dollar.
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