ForexMart's Daily Market Analysis

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AI Breaks and Breaks: Amazon Spends, Microsoft Gains, Nasdaq Slips

U.S. Indexes Close Lower: 'Chip' Fever and Earnings Expectations
The American stock market ended Wednesday with a decline, as chipmakers slipped and investors paused, awaiting corporate earnings.

Microsoft: Beating the Estimates
After the market closed, Microsoft and Meta Platforms (banned in Russia) reported earnings that exceeded revenue forecasts. These positive results drew attention to upcoming reports from other tech giants, reinforcing confidence in the "heavyweights" of the tech market.

Alphabet: 'Magnificent Seven' Reports Offer a Bright Spot
Among the largest players in the top "Magnificent Seven," Alphabet also showed impressive results. Its 2.8% growth on Tuesday after beating third-quarter revenue and earnings expectations gave the market a small boost, helping to offset the negative impact from the decline in chipmaker stocks.

Chipmakers Under Pressure: AMD and Qorvo Slump
Shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Qorvo faced significant pressure. Grim forecasts triggered drops of 10.6% and 27.3% in their stock prices, respectively.

Heavy Losses for Super Micro and Nvidia
Super Micro Computer dropped 32.6% after Ernst & Young stepped down as the company's auditor. Nvidia also ended in the red, with a 1.4% drop.

Tech Sector Hit Hard
The information technology sector saw the biggest drop among S&P 500 sectors, down 1.34%, while the communication services sector showed slight growth due to Alphabet's success.

Market Optimism Fades
According to Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities, the volatility in Qorvo, Advanced Micro, and Super Micro stocks is raising questions and "dulling the rosy picture" set by Alphabet's impressive report.

Focus Turns to Earnings and Forecasts
"There will be a laser focus on earnings and company guidance reports," added James, highlighting the intense anticipation among investors.

Small Losses but Significant Expectations
Wednesday ended with small declines across major indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 91.51 points (0.22%) to settle at 42,141.54. The S&P 500 also slipped, down by 19.25 points (0.33%) to 5,813.67, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded the largest drop, losing 104.82 points (0.56%) to close at 18,607.93.

U.S. Economy Grows but Below Expectations
According to preliminary data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, GDP grew by 2.8% annually in the third quarter, slightly below the forecasted 3.0% growth rate. This minor gap between actual and expected results raised some concerns in the market, although the overall growth trend remains positive.

Private Sector Exceeds Job Growth Expectations
In other positive news, the private sector saw stronger-than-expected job growth. October added 233,000 new jobs, above forecasts, signaling steady recovery in the labor market and giving investors a reason for optimism, reinforcing expectations of consumer activity and economic strength.

Political Tensions: Harris and Trump Run Neck-and-Neck
With the upcoming presidential election on November 5, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is a hot topic among market participants. According to the latest polls, the candidates are running neck and neck. Investors are keeping a close eye on the election's potential impact on economic policy and the market.

Disappointing Corporate Reports: Eli Lilly and Starbucks
Eli Lilly disappointed investors, dropping 6.2% after falling short of sales forecasts for its popular weight loss and diabetes medications. Analysts expected better results, leading to a decline in the pharma giant's stock.

Starbucks reported a decline in quarterly sales, with a decrease in global demand impacting the company's profits. Investors closely monitoring the cafe chain received confirmation that global economic challenges have affected even the largest brands.

NYSE Remains Positive Despite Declines
Despite the overall market downturn, the New York Stock Exchange showed a positive balance: for each stock that declined, another rose. A total of 210 new highs and 52 new lows were recorded, indicating a mixed sentiment, with many investors remaining optimistic.

New Highs and Lows: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Show Divergent Movement
The S&P 500 recorded 24 new 52-week highs and five new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite saw 126 new highs and 98 new lows. This divergence in performance illustrates mixed investor sentiment, with investors balancing between growth expectations and concerns for the tech sector.

Amazon Up Next: Markets Brace for Earnings Report
Amazon is expected to release its financial results on Thursday, and the forecasts suggest trends similar to recent reports from other tech giants. Investors worry that aggressive investments in AI and infrastructure could impact the company's high margins, potentially reducing interest in its stock.

Tech Sector Under Pressure: AI Comes at a High Cost
Shares of major tech giants continued to decline in aftermarket trading on Wednesday. A key challenge these companies face is balancing ambitious AI initiatives with the need to demonstrate short-term returns. "Investing in AI is costly. Building capacity is expensive," commented GlobalData analyst Beatriz Valle.

Capacity Competition: Capital Expenditures on the Rise
Tech corporations are in a race to build AI infrastructure, but widespread adoption of the technology will take time. According to Visible Alpha, Microsoft's quarterly capital expenditures now exceed its annual spending level before 2020. Meta has also significantly increased its spending, with quarterly investments now comparable to its annual costs before 2017.

Microsoft: AI Spending Increases and Potential Azure Slowdown
Microsoft reported a 5.3% increase in capital spending to $20 billion in the first fiscal quarter and confirmed further increases in AI investment in the coming quarter. However, the company warned that growth in its Azure cloud business may slow due to limited data center capacity. This statement added to investors' concerns.

These investments will undoubtedly help tech giants strengthen their positions in the AI market in the long term, but for now, the question of profitability and margin growth remains open.

Investments and Their Impact: Microsoft Slows Margins for Future Gains
Head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, Gil Luria, points out, "Investors sometimes overlook that each time Microsoft makes major investments, it dampens the company's margin by a full percentage point, which can drag on for the next six years." According to Luria, the current capital expenditures could slow Microsoft's margin metrics, creating a temporary barrier to profitability.

Chipmakers Struggling to Meet Demand: AI Growth Drives Shortages
Chip manufacturers like Nvidia face challenges in meeting the growing demand for AI components. Advanced Micro Devices, which reported earnings earlier this week, emphasized that AI chip demand is surging faster than production capacity. The company warned that AI chip supply will likely remain limited into next year, leaving some orders unfulfilled.

AI Investments Echo the Early Days of Cloud Technology
These substantial investments by tech giants hark back to the times when companies actively invested in cloud technology, waiting for customers to adopt and adapt to the new technology.

High-Stakes Bet on AI Infrastructure
"We're on the verge of significant opportunities, even if building infrastructure may raise questions for investors in the short term," said Meta (banned in Russia) CEO Mark Zuckerberg, commenting on the company's current spending. He stressed that the company plans to continue making substantial investments in AI infrastructure, preparing for future demand and long-term results.
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Microsoft's Big AI Spend Weakens Wall Street, Nasdaq Dow

U.S. Indices Close in the Red: AI Costs Hit Market Optimism
All three major U.S. stock indices ended Thursday's trading session in negative territory after reports from Microsoft and Meta Platforms (banned in Russia) highlighted rising AI-related expenses that could impact future profits, dampening enthusiasm for the mega-cap companies that had driven this year's rally.

Microsoft: Record Profits Couldn't Prevent Stock Drop
Despite Meta Platforms (banned in Russia) and Microsoft (MSFT.O) surpassing profit expectations, their stocks fell significantly, with Meta dropping by 4.1% and Microsoft by 6%. This decline followed reports indicating rising AI costs, which investors perceived cautiously, seeing the potential for these costs to reduce profit margins.

The "Magnificent Seven" Lose Ground
Among other tech giants in the so-called "Magnificent Seven," both Amazon.com (AMZN.O) and Apple (AAPL.O) released their quarterly results. Amazon exceeded revenue forecasts, driven by strong growth in its cloud division, while Apple pleased investors with higher-than-expected iPhone sales and met expectations in both revenue and profit.

Amazon Up, Apple Down: Market Reacts to Earnings Reports
As a result, Amazon.com shares rose by 4.5% after market close due to solid quarterly results that exceeded Wall Street's estimates. Apple shares, however, slipped by 2% despite its positive report, remaining aligned with investor forecasts. During the regular trading session, Amazon saw a decline of 3.3%, while Apple's shares fell by 1.8%.

Alphabet Also Ends Lower
Alphabet (GOOGL.O), which reported earlier on Tuesday, also faced pressure, with its shares dropping by 1.9%.

Investors Wary: Unlimited AI Budgets Raise Questions
"The 'Magnificent Seven' are clearly hinting that their AI-related budgets remain open-ended, and this isn't a comforting message for investors," said Carol Schleif, Chief Investment Officer at BMO Family Office. "While long-term benefits for the U.S. economy could be substantial, the short-term question remains: where is the immediate profit from these investments?"

Microsoft Points to Rising Capital Expenditures
Microsoft confirmed that increasing capital expenditures are linked to its expansion of AI investments, potentially affecting its profit margin, causing uncertainty among shareholders.

Market Downturn: Major Indices Lose Ground
The market reacted with declines across all major indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) closed down by 378.08 points, or 0.90%, at 41,763.46. The S&P 500 (.SPX) dropped by 108.22 points, or 1.86%, to 5,705.45, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 512.78 points, or 2.76%, ending the trading day at 18,095.15.

Monthly Losses: Market Ends Extended Growth Streak
Amid September's fluctuations, the S&P 500 lost 0.99% for the month, Nasdaq fell by 0.52%, and the Dow ended with a 1.34% loss, marking the end of a five-month growth streak for the Dow and S&P.

Inflation Continues to Rise: Consumer Spending Exceeds Expectations
According to the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a key inflation indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve, prices rose by 0.2% in September, aligning with analyst forecasts. However, the annual core inflation rate reached 2.7%, slightly above the 2.6% forecast, while consumer spending also exceeded expectations, adding further uncertainty regarding the central bank's future actions.

Intel Faces Restructuring Costs and Write-Downs
Intel (INTC.O) presented its earnings report post-market close, which showed the impact of restructuring costs and asset write-downs. Despite optimization efforts, the company's financial results fell short of expectations, leading to a restrained reaction from investors.

Market Under Pressure: NYSE Decliners Outnumber Advancers
On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the number of declining stocks outpaced gainers by more than two and a half times, at a ratio of 2.66 to 1. During the trading day, the S&P 500 recorded 24 new 52-week highs and nine new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite registered 59 new highs and 159 new lows, reflecting the general negative market sentiment.

U.S. Consumer Spending Rises, Economy Strengthens
Thursday morning data indicated that U.S. consumer spending in September exceeded expectations, providing a positive signal for the economy, directing it toward a stronger growth trajectory in the year's final quarter. This increase in spending could bolster confidence in economic resilience.

Labor Costs Slow Growth
Another report showed that the Employment Cost Index (ECI), the broadest measure of labor costs, rose by 0.8% in the third quarter. This growth marked the slowest pace since mid-2021, lower than the previous quarter's 0.9% figure, indicating a potential easing in wage inflation.

Dollar Weakens as Yen and Euro Strengthen on Economic News
The dollar came under pressure against the yen after the Bank of Japan took a slightly more hawkish stance than anticipated, while the euro gained ground following data indicating faster-than-expected inflation in the eurozone in October. This factor supported arguments for a cautious approach to potential rate cuts by the European Central Bank, adding additional strength to the euro.

Dollar Index Declines, Yen and Euro Gain Ground
The dollar index, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.2% to 103.88, while the euro edged up by 0.04% against the dollar to $1.0859. Meanwhile, the dollar weakened 0.8% against the Japanese yen, reaching 152.18 yen. These currency fluctuations come amid expectations for the upcoming Fed meeting.

Rate Cut Anticipation: Markets Almost Certain
The market is nearly convinced that the Fed will implement a 25-basis point rate cut during its November 6-7 meeting. However, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is only a 70% chance of an additional cut in December, reflecting investor caution.

Eyes on Employment Report and Presidential Race
Traders and investors are focused on key events in the coming days, with October's U.S. employment report due on Friday and the presidential election set for Tuesday. Polls indicate a close race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris, adding uncertainty on the political front.

Global Indices Fall, Bond Yields Rise
The global MSCI Index (.MIWD00000PUS) closed down by 12.64 points, or 1.50%, at 832.30, and saw a 2.3% decline in October, ending a five-month winning streak. The European STOXX 600 index also ended the day in the red, down 1.2%.

Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds rose following the release of economic data. The 10-year bond yield increased by 1.8 basis points to 4.282%, nearing Tuesday's four-month high of 4.339%.

Cryptocurrency Market Under Pressure: Bitcoin Loses Ground
On the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, fell by 3.2%, reaching $70,458. This level is about 4% below its all-time high from March, signaling short-term fluctuations amid market volatility.

Gold Retraces After Record High, Monthly Gains Remain Strong
Gold retreated slightly after hitting a new all-time high, though it wrapped up a fourth consecutive month of gains, supported by demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold dropped by 1.6% to $2,740.45 per ounce, after reaching a peak of $2,790.15 earlier in the session. Gold prices saw a 4% increase over the month, underscoring its appeal during times of instability.

Oil Prices Surge Amid Middle East Tensions
Oil prices continued their upward movement in response to reports suggesting that Iran is preparing to launch an attack on Israel from Iraq within days. WTI crude futures surged by $1.81, reaching $70.42 by 3:00 PM ET. Brent crude futures for January delivery also rose by $1.82, hitting $73.98. U.S. crude climbed by 1.33%, settling at $69.52 per barrel, while Brent rose by 0.94%, ending at $73.23 per barrel.

This increase highlights the oil market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks and confirms its reaction to potential escalations in a region that remains a crucial energy supplier.
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Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for November 1-4, 2024: sell below $2,766 (21 SMA - 61.8%)

Early in the American session, gold is trading around 2,750, within the uptrend channel, and below the 21 SMA, bouncing after having reached the low of 2,732.

Yesterday, after having reached the low of 2,790, gold made a strong technical correction. Today we observed a technical rebound. However, the instrument remains under bearish pressure. Hence, we could expect that if the metal reaches the 61.8% Fibonacci level around 2,766, it could be seen as an opportunity to resume selling.

On the other hand, in case gold breaks the inverted pennant pattern sharply, we could expect it to reach the 3/8 Murray area around 2,734. The instrument could even continue its fall next week and reach the 200 EMA around 2,673.

The key is to pay attention to the 61.8% retracement level. Below this area, the outlook will remain bearish for gold. Therefore, traders will have an opportunity to sell below this area.

Should XAU/USD bounce and consolidate above 3/8 Murray, we could look for buying opportunities with the target at 2,766 as this could confirm that a strong bottom is in place.
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Markets in election grip: Dow, S&P fall, Nvidia climbs steadily

U.S. Stock Market Wrap-Up: Election Anticipation and Investor Anxiety
U.S. stocks ended slightly down on Monday after a volatile trading session, with investors bracing for a decisive week as the nation prepares to choose its next president and the Federal Reserve gets set to release a key policy statement.

Final Push: Trump vs. Harris
In the final hours of the presidential race, candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris pulled out all the stops in an effort to secure crucial votes. Polls show a close race, and it may take several days to determine the winner.

Trump Trades Lose Steam
Some of the so-called "Trump trades" faced declines after recent polling showed Harris, a Democratic vice president, leading in Iowa. This led to a dip in the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) ended up with a 12.37% gain, recovering from early losses of nearly 6%.

Harris's Odds Rise in Betting Markets
Following the Iowa poll, Harris's odds against the former Republican president increased on several betting sites, which many market participants view as a predictor of election outcomes.

"We'll need until at least Thursday to determine who won, so unfortunately, this week will likely be quite volatile," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York.

"Earnings are doing well, the Fed will likely lower interest rates, and the only true uncertainty is the election. Hopefully, it will be resolved sooner rather than later, so investors can get back to business as usual," Stovall added.

Wall Street Indices Struggle Amid Uncertainty
On Monday, major U.S. stock indexes slid into the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell by 257.59 points, or 0.61%, closing at 41,794.60. The S&P 500 (.SPX) also declined, losing 16.11 points, or 0.28%, to settle at 5,712.69. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) joined the downtrend, shedding 59.93 points, or 0.33%, and ending at 18,179.98.

Bond Yields Continue to Slide
On the bond market, ten-year U.S. Treasury yields took another hit, falling 6.4 basis points to 4.299%, following an initial drop of 10 basis points. Investors anticipate a volatile week as they await election results and policy clarity.

Russell 2000 Gains on Falling Yields
With bond yields declining, the Russell 2000 (.RUT) saw a modest 0.4% increase, as lower borrowing costs tend to benefit small-cap stocks, which are seen as more likely to gain from lower rates.

CBOE Volatility Index Rises: Fear Index Holds Steady Near Highs
The CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX), known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," climbed to 21.94, staying well above its long-term average of 19.46. It hovered near last week's two-month high of 23.42, reflecting heightened market tension over the pending election and potential economic fallout.

Fed Rate Cut Expected with Near Certainty
Heading into Thursday, investors are almost certain the Federal Reserve will cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 98% chance of a rate cut and only a 2% chance the Fed will hold rates steady. This expectation has been priced into the market, heavily influencing investor sentiment.

Energy Sector Leads Gains Amid Oil Surge
Among the S&P 500's 11 major sectors, energy (.SPNY) led the way, gaining 1.87%, buoyed by a rise in oil prices following OPEC+'s decision to postpone production hikes.

Nvidia Replaces Intel in Dow
Chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA.O) saw a modest 0.48% gain after news that it will replace Intel (INTC.O) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In response, Intel's shares dropped 2.93%, weighing on the Dow.

Marriott Slips on Lowered Profit Outlook
Hotel operator Marriott International (MAR.O) declined by 1.59% after lowering its 2024 profit forecast due to weak domestic travel demand in the U.S. and China.

Constellation Energy Takes a Hit Following FERC Rejection
Constellation Energy (CEG.O) performed the worst in the S&P 500, down 12.46%. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission denied a deal to expand capacity at Amazon's data center, which is directly connected to Talen Energy's nuclear plant in Pennsylvania, pressuring the utilities sector, which fell 1.21%.

Rising Stocks Outnumber Decliners on NYSE and Nasdaq
On Monday, advancers outpaced decliners on the New York Stock Exchange by a ratio of 1.37 to 1, while on the Nasdaq, the ratio was a narrower 1.01 to 1 in favor of gaining stocks, suggesting a mild overall bullish sentiment despite general caution.

Highs and Lows: Mixed Market Momentum
The S&P 500 registered 10 new 52-week highs and four new lows, reflecting positive expectations in select sectors. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite saw 66 new highs but also 128 new lows, highlighting heightened volatility among technology and innovation stocks.

Trading Volume: Slightly Below Average, But Significant
U.S. trading volumes reached 11.31 billion shares, just under the 20-day average of 11.71 billion. This may indicate a cautious stance among market participants ahead of major events like the Fed meeting and presidential election.

Air France KLM Faces Downgrade and Stock Pressure
Shares of Air France KLM (AIRF.PA) fell after Morgan Stanley downgraded the airline from "equal weight" to "underweight." On Tuesday, the stock dropped roughly 2% at the start of the trading session.

Challenging Cash Flow Outlook for Air France KLM
Morgan Stanley noted that while Air France KLM's stock isn't overly expensive by historical standards, it trades at a notable premium to its peers among national carriers. This premium, combined with challenging free cash flow prospects, suggests a cautious outlook for the airline.

Third-Quarter Earnings in Europe: Surpassing Expectations but China Concerns Linger
Despite economic challenges, many European companies are surpassing low market expectations for third-quarter earnings, with investors rewarding top performers. However, concerns over weak demand in China continue to temper enthusiasm, prompting caution.

Lowered Forecasts Ease the Bar for Earnings Growth
Data from LSEG I/B/E/S shows that analysts revised down profit growth expectations by 380 basis points in the two months before the earnings season. Normally, such adjustments are around 100 basis points, but the substantial drop in projections has made it easier for companies to exceed expectations.

STOXX 600: More Companies Beating Expectations
So far, around 50% of companies in the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index have reported their earnings, with approximately 56% exceeding forecasts. Citi equity strategists note that this figure aligns with the quarterly average, indicating that European firms are holding steady despite market turbulence.

U.S. Elections Add a Layer of Uncertainty for Europe
The upcoming U.S. elections add another layer of uncertainty, with analysts expecting that the resulting volatility could continue to impact European stocks as investors wait to see how the election outcome might influence the global economy.

Market Dynamics Shift: Reward for Outperformance and Penalties for Misses
This quarter, companies that have exceeded expectations are being notably rewarded by investors. On the other hand, those missing forecasts are feeling the pressure as the market takes a tougher stance on underperformance.

European Banks Boosted by High Interest Rates
European banks have enjoyed another strong quarter as persistently high interest rates continue to support profit margins. Even as the European Central Bank signals potential rate cuts, investor sentiment remains positive.

Higher Structural Rates: A Win for Banks
"Interest rates will structurally remain higher than in previous cycles," remarked Thomas McGarrity, head of equity at RBC Wealth Management. He believes this will benefit banks significantly, allowing them to sustain strong margins. "We're in a favorable position and won't be backing down," McGarrity added.

Financial Sector's Profit Growth Among the Highest
Data from LSEG I/B/E/S shows that the financial sector saw 20.6% profit growth in the third quarter, ranking it third among major sectors after utilities and basic materials. So far, 80% of financial companies have reported earnings that beat analyst expectations.

Economic Stagnation Hits Small and Mid-Caps Hardest
Meanwhile, Europe's economy remains in a state of stagnation. The industrial sector, particularly reliant on energy, faces challenges from rising costs and weak global demand. For small- and mid-cap companies focused on the domestic market, these issues create significant headwinds and unstable growth prospects.

European Stocks Historically Undervalued: Attractive Ratios for Investors
Currently, European stocks remain historically undervalued. The average 12-month forward P/E ratio stands at 13.6x, lower than the long-term average of 14.3x. Mid-cap stocks appear even more attractive, trading at a forward P/E of 12.7x compared to the long-term average of 15x. This undervaluation makes European assets appealing to investors seeking growth potential in stable markets.
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XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold faced strong selling pressure today, dropping to the key level of $2,700—its nearly three-week low—within an hour before the European session.

The Republican candidate, Donald Trump, leads in the U.S. presidential race and is likely to become the 47th President of the United States. This development triggered aggressive selling of the yellow metal and a sharp rally in the U.S. dollar.

Additionally, concerns over deficit spending and expectations for less aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, contributing to divestment from gold.

Technical Analysis

The $2,725–$2,720 level continues to act as immediate strong support. A break below this region could accelerate the decline, potentially testing levels below the key $2,700 level. This level aligns with the lower boundary of the short-term upward trend channel, extending from late July into early August. A decisive break below this threshold would pave the way for a deeper correction from the recent all-time high reached last week, likely dragging the XAU/USD pair toward the next significant support zone around $2,675.

On the other hand, the $2,750 level now serves as the immediate hurdle. A move above this level could lift the price to the next barrier at $2,790 or the all-time high reached last month. Beyond this, the key $2,800 level is expected to act as a critical pivot point. Sustained strength beyond this threshold would set the stage for resuming the well-established upward trend.

Market Sentiment

Adding to the pressure, the risk-on sentiment—evidenced by a strong rally in U.S. stock futures—indicates that gold, as a safe-haven asset, faces a downward path of least resistance.
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Trump 2.0 - Markets Explode: Dow, S&P, Nasdaq Hit Record Highs!

Trump Back in the White House: Record Growth on Wall Street

On Wednesday, U.S. stock indexes showed a sharp rise, reaching record levels, after Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election in a sensational victory. Four years after leaving the political arena, he returned, surprising many analysts and investors.

Strong Start: Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Reach New Highs
The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite indices ended the day at historic highs. Investors responded enthusiastically to the prospect of tax cuts and possible deregulation, anticipating that the new president will continue to express his views on a wide range of issues, from the dollar's exchange rate to the state of the stock market. However, increases in import tariffs, which Trump may initiate, raise concerns about inflation and budget deficits.

"Trump Trades" in Action: Bond Yields and Record Bitcoin
Investor optimism led to higher yields on U.S. government bonds, with the base yield on 10-year treasury bonds reaching a four-month high at 4.479%. Bitcoin also saw record highs, exceeding the $76,000 mark. The dollar also showed significant growth, recording its largest single-day percentage gain since September 2022.

Investors' Forecasts and Expectations
"Investors seem to have been adjusting their portfolios to capture some of the risk exposure in anticipation of an outcome that seemed unlikely," said Mark Luschini, Chief Investment Strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.

Trading Results: Wall Street Celebrates
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) added 1,508.05 points, or 3.57%, reaching 43,729.93. The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose by 146.28 points, or 2.53%, to 5,929.04, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) gained 544.29 points, or 2.95%, reaching 18,983.47.

Record Market Gains: Dow and S&P See Largest Single-Day Growth in Two Years
The impressive gains in the Dow and S&P 500 on Wednesday marked the largest single-day jump since November 2022. The Nasdaq index also hit a peak unseen since February, confirming the market's positive sentiment amid political shifts. This growth reflects investor expectations for economic reforms and policy changes with Trump's return.

Financial Sector Leads the Way
The financial sector stood out, surging by 6.16% and becoming the strongest of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500. Banking stocks showed substantial growth as banks may benefit from deregulation. The S&P 500 Bank Index (.SPXBK) increased by 10.68%, setting a new two-year high.

Small-Cap Stocks Also See Gains
The Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap companies, also rose by 5.84%, marking the largest increase since November 2022. This growth highlights expectations that small businesses will receive support through promised tax incentives and deregulation, reducing risks associated with import tariffs. However, experts warn that small companies remain vulnerable due to their reliance on credit and sensitivity to interest rate changes.

Interest Rate Risk: A Challenge for Small Business
Rising U.S. Treasury bond yields may pose additional challenges for small businesses, which typically rely more on borrowed funds. "If interest rates continue to rise and reach levels seen last October, around 5%, it could be problematic not only for small companies but for the entire market," Mark Luschini cautioned.

Fear Index Hits New Low as Inflation Concerns Persist
The CBOE Volatility Index, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," fell by 4.22 points, reaching a six-week low of 16.27. This decline reflects market participants' confidence in stability, despite rising concerns over future inflation and potential interest rate hikes under Trump's economic policy.

Real Estate and Utilities Under Pressure
Sectors sensitive to interest rates saw a decline: real estate stocks fell by 2.64%, and utilities lost 0.98%. These industries were among the few showing a downturn, as investors weighed the potential for tighter Federal Reserve policy and its impact on future borrowing costs.

Central Bank Policy Adjustments Expected
In light of the current conditions, many analysts predict that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points, a decision likely to be confirmed at the meeting concluding Thursday. However, traders have started adjusting their expectations, reducing bets on a December cut and the number of rate reductions expected next year, following CME's FedWatch index.

"Trump-Friendly" Stocks Rise: Media Group and Tesla in the Spotlight
Stocks that analysts believe may benefit from Trump's second term started to rally. Trump-affiliated Media & Technology Group rose by 5.94% after a volatile session, while Tesla surged by an impressive 14.75% following support from CEO Elon Musk, who expressed backing for Trump's campaign.

"Election Echoes" Throughout the Market
"The results of these elections are leaving traces in everything happening in the markets right now," noted Paul Christopher, Head of Global Investment Strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Trump's promises to adjust tariffs, cut taxes, and deregulate business have encouraged investors to invest in assets that are likely to benefit from such an economic policy.

Currencies in Focus: Mexican Peso and Euro Under Pressure
Currency markets faced significant fluctuations as investment flows reflected concerns over Trump's potential trade policy. The Mexican peso dropped to a two-year low, while the euro was headed for its biggest daily decline since 2020, underscoring fears about possible tariffs.

Record Trading Volume: Yuan and Peso Take the Lead
Trading intensity reached new highs. By 10 a.m. Central Time, CME Group (CME.O) recorded unprecedented online trading activity for the offshore Chinese yuan, reaching a historic level of $33 billion. The Mexican peso also attracted increased attention, with the volume of futures contracts exceeding the usual average by 43%, highlighting investors' interest in instruments sensitive to tariff policy changes.

Political Support for "Trump Trades"
The strengthening position of Republicans in the Senate boosted investor confidence in supporting Trump's economic agenda. Although the vote count in the House of Representatives was still ongoing, a Republican victory could provide Trump with support for implementing key economic decisions, sparking market excitement.

Long-Term Global Economic Impact
Experts believe that the election results may have a far-reaching impact on U.S. tax and trade policy and could alter the status of the country's major financial institutions, which will inevitably affect assets worldwide.

Treasury Bonds Under Pressure: Inflation and Debt Concerns
Sales of U.S. Treasury bonds increased as investors anticipate higher consumer prices due to potential tariff hikes and expect government spending to raise debt levels. The yield on 10-year bonds reached a four-month high, pausing at 4.48%, before slightly pulling back.

Trump's Economic Agenda: Inflation and Deficit on the Horizon
According to David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, if Donald Trump successfully implements his economic initiatives, this could lead to budget deficits, tax cuts, and inflation due to new tariffs. "High inflation and increased deficits will inevitably push long-term interest rates up," the expert emphasized.

Cryptocurrencies Soar: Bitcoin Hits Record Highs
The cryptocurrency market responded positively to potential regulatory changes: Bitcoin surged to a new record as investors see Trump's victory as a chance to ease control over digital assets. BlackRock Investment Institute noted that Trump's second term could be accompanied by deregulation, including banking policy relaxation, which may boost the crypto market.

Record Overnight Trades: Robinhood Rides the Wave
Trading began before dawn. Robinhood Markets (HOOD.O) recorded the largest overnight session since this feature launched in May 2023. Trading volume was 11 times the average as traders eagerly bought shares of companies likely to benefit from Trump's policies: from Coinbase Global (COIN.O) and iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT.O) to companies linked to Trump and his supporter Elon Musk.

Contrasting Sectors: Energy and Crypto Rise, "Green" Stocks Decline
Political shifts have driven up shares of cryptocurrency, energy companies, and private prison operators. However, renewable energy stocks faced pressure as markets assess the likelihood of continued support under the new administration.

Congressional Control: What's Next for Trump's Economic Program
Now, investors are watching closely to see if Republicans can retain the House majority after securing the Senate. If Republicans maintain control in Congress, it could greatly facilitate Trump's agenda, potentially impacting a wide range of economic decisions.

Market Leaders and Laggards: Advances Outpace Declines
On the New York Stock Exchange, advancing stocks significantly outnumbered declining ones by a ratio of 1.51 to 1, while on the Nasdaq, the ratio was 1.84 to 1, emphasizing the optimistic market sentiment. The S&P 500 recorded 138 new 52-week highs and 12 lows, while the Nasdaq Composite set 456 new peaks, with 115 companies hitting new lows.

Record Trading Volume
Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 18.68 billion shares, significantly exceeding the 20-day average of 12.16 billion. Such activity reflects unprecedented investor interest in the potential impacts of Trump's return as the market anticipates economic reforms and policy shifts.

Europe Under Pressure: Germany in the Crosshairs
The uncertainty over U.S. politics comes at an unfortunate time for the European Union. The potential victory of Republicans led by Donald Trump has heightened concerns over sweeping tariffs on European goods, which could reach 10%, dealing a blow to exporters. Germany, whose main export market is the U.S., faces particular risks, especially in the automotive sector, where higher tariffs could significantly erode the competitiveness of German manufacturers.

European Markets Decline: STOXX 600 and DAX Under Pressure
News of possible tariff threats triggered a negative reaction on European stock markets. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell by 0.54%, while Germany's leading DAX index dropped by 1.13%. Investors are reassessing their portfolios amid ongoing political uncertainty.

Focus on Central Bank Decisions
On Thursday, attention will be split between political changes and key monetary policy decisions. The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, Sweden's Riksbank, and Norway's central bank are all set to announce their rate decisions, which could significantly impact global markets, heightening volatility and awareness of economic shifts.

Spotlight on the Fed: Rate Cuts and Powell's Commentary
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the interest rate by a quarter point at this meeting. However, investors' main focus will be on what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says about new inflation risks linked to potential tariffs and immigration restrictions proposed by the Trump administration. Experts believe that the regulator's future steps may depend on how quickly inflationary pressures mount.

Interest in Bank of England Forecasts
The Bank of England is also considering a quarter-point rate cut, and analysts are focused on potential signals regarding future inflationary pressures. The new government budget, which could drive inflation, is a source of concern for markets, and investors are closely watching for any financial forecasts from U.K. authorities.

Sweden and Norway: Diverging Paths
The Swedish Riksbank is expected to make a more significant cut, lowering the rate by half a point. Meanwhile, Norway's central bank will likely maintain a wait-and-see approach, keeping rates unchanged as the market faces continued uncertainty.
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Political instability, rate cuts and Nvidia's record: what's happening in the market?

US markets end the day higher amid Fed rate cuts
US stock markets ended trading on Thursday with a confident rise, helped by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point (25 bps). This development strengthened the positive trend that began after Donald Trump returned to the US presidency.

Fed Cuts Rate as Labor Market Weakens, Inflation Nears Target
The Federal Reserve has decided to cut rates by 0.25%, citing signs of weakness in the labor market and a gradual move in inflation toward the central bank's 2% target.

Markets had largely expected the move, almost entirely factoring the rate cut into their forecasts for the November meeting. Investors are now watching closely for any follow-up comments from Fed officials that could shed light on the future direction of monetary policy.

Hopes for Economic Growth Push Indexes Higher
Expectations of a return to corporate tax cuts and Trump-led regulatory easing have fueled investor optimism, sending key stock indexes higher. The Dow Industrials and S&P 500 posted their biggest one-day gains in two years last trading session, while the Nasdaq was not far behind, continuing to move in the green.

Expert Comment: "Rate Cut Keeps Caps Level, But Eases Them"
"The Fed has kept the drama out of this eventful period," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Wisconsin. "A quarter-percentage point cut leaves the federal funds rate still in cap territory, but it's not as tight as it used to be." He said Trump's return to the presidency could bring a modest improvement in growth, but it would also likely lead to higher inflation. "The Fed will likely have to cut rates at a more cautious pace," Jacobsen concluded.

U.S. Indexes End Mixed
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) was virtually unchanged, down just 0.59 points to 43,729.34. The S&P 500 (.SPX) added 0.74%, rising 44.06 points to 5,973.10, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) was the biggest gainer, rising 1.51%, or 285.99 points, to end the session at 19,269.46.

Communications Leads as Warner Bros Discovery Gains
Communications (.SPLRCL) was the biggest gainer among sectors, jumping 1.92%. This was helped by a massive 11.81% gain in Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.O) after the company reported unexpectedly strong third-quarter earnings, which encouraged investors to buy into the sector.

Financials Slow Down
The financial sector (.SPSY) was among the laggards, losing 1.62% after a strong rally in the previous session. In particular, banks (.SPXBK) fell 3.09%, reversing a significant gain from Wednesday. JP Morgan (JPM.N) and Goldman Sachs (GS.N) also showed negative dynamics, with their shares falling 4.32% and 2.32%, respectively, putting pressure on the Dow.

Expectations for rate cuts weaken
Sentiment towards further rate cuts has become less optimistic in recent weeks. Economic data points to economic resilience, which could push inflation higher. Such a scenario is likely amid expected tariff changes and increased government spending under the policies of the new Trump administration.

Powell: Fed ready for changes
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the final decision on the central bank's December policy has not yet been made. However, he stressed that the Fed is prepared to adjust the course and pace of its actions given the current economic uncertainty.

Investors are keeping a close eye on Congress
One of the key factors attracting investors' attention remains the possibility of the Republicans taking control of both houses of Congress. If this happens, it will be easier for Donald Trump to advance his economic agenda, which will potentially increase support for the business sector and cause a positive reaction in the market.

Treasury yields retreat after rally
After a wild rally in recent weeks, 10-year Treasury yields retreated for a time. The benchmark yield, which hit a four-month high of 4.479% on Wednesday, eased slightly after the Fed's announcement to close at 4.332%.

Unemployment remains stable
U.S. jobless claims rose slightly last week, data showed Thursday, pointing to stable labor market conditions. The lack of a significant increase in unemployment is a boost to confidence in economic resilience, easing concerns about the need for urgent changes in monetary policy. NYSE and Nasdaq rally, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit record highs

On the New York Stock Exchange, gainers outnumbered losers by nearly twice (1.94 to 1). On the Nasdaq, the ratio was 1.18 to 1. The S&P 500 posted 56 new 52-week highs and just 4 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 193 new highs and 88 new lows.

Trading activity on U.S. exchanges beats averages
Turnover on U.S. exchanges reached 16.78 billion shares on Thursday, well above the average daily volume of 12.46 billion shares over the past 20 trading days.

MSCI Global Index Continues to Rise
The MSCI Index of global equities (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.9% to a new record high, signaling continued appetite for global markets amid a pickup in economic activity.

European Markets Rise
Europe's STOXX 600 Index (.STOXX) rose 0.6% following a strong start to Asian trading. The index was also supported by Chinese blue chips, which jumped 3% (.CSI300). Investor sentiment was boosted by expectations of more stimulus measures, which outweighed concerns over escalating trade tensions.

Corporate Tax and Deregulation Optimism
"Equities are reflecting expectations of lower corporate taxes and reacting positively to the prospect of deregulation, which will benefit earnings," said Naomi Fink, chief strategist at Nikko Asset Management. Companies across industries see new growth potential in the policy, spurring further investor interest in key assets.

Treasury yields continue to decline
U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline following the Fed's rate cut, although analysts warn that the process may be less sustainable than expected under the new Trump administration.

Republican victory: potential implications for growth and inflation
There is growing consensus among economists that a Republican election win could be a catalyst for more accommodative fiscal policy. Matthias Scheiber, head of portfolio management at Allspring Global Investments, believes that the combined effect of new tariffs and stimulus could boost the economy but also increase inflation pressures.

Yields: Reaction to rate cuts
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 9 basis points to 4.3355% on Thursday, after rising 14 basis points the previous day. The 30-year yield also fell more than 6 basis points to 4.5393% after a big jump the previous day.

Dollar Loses Ground Amid Corrections
The dollar fell 0.7% against a basket of major currencies, reversing Wednesday's biggest one-day gain in more than two years. Many traders began to close positions on a Trump victory and were looking ahead to the Fed's upcoming decision, weighing on market sentiment.

Euro Strengthens Amid Political Change in Germany
The euro rose 0.7% to $1.0803, partly reversing a 1.8% average loss the previous day. The euro is recovering as investors digest the latest political developments in Germany, where Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner, leading to the collapse of the coalition government and likely to lead to early elections. Euro Strengthening Forecasts

Deutsche Bank analysts note that while events in Germany are still in the early stages, potential political stability could strengthen confidence in the euro. Economic forecasts also point to possible positive effects if the new government adopts a more proactive fiscal stance.

German Bond Yields Rise
German 10-year bond yields rose 4.8 basis points to 2.441%, reflecting market expectations for future EU policy developments.

Bank of England cuts rates amid inflation risks
Meanwhile, the Bank of England has cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, its second such move since 2020. The regulator has signaled that further cuts will be gradual, given the risks of rising inflation following the new government's budget presented last week.

Pound sterling also shows gains
The British pound also regained some of its positions and rose by 0.8%, rising to $1.2986 after falling by 1.24% on Wednesday.

Norway, Sweden central banks stick to their previous course
Norway and Sweden central banks held their meetings on Thursday, which resulted in no significant changes for the currency markets, fully meeting analysts' expectations. Norges Bank decided to leave interest rates at a 16-year high, maintaining its commitment to tight monetary policy. At the same time, Sweden's Riksbank cut rates by 50 basis points, softening its approach to monetary policy.

Bitcoin at Record Highs
The Bitcoin cryptocurrency has rapidly recovered its recent losses and reached a new all-time high of $76,780 overnight. Against this backdrop, Donald Trump said that he would make the United States the "crypto capital of the world," which has increased investor interest in digital assets.

Gold and Oil Are Gaining Momentum Again
After a significant drop of more than 3% on Wednesday, gold showed confident growth, increasing by 1.8% and reaching $2,707.21 per ounce. Despite this, the price of gold remains close to its recent record high of $2,790.15.

Oil prices also showed positive dynamics after the sell-off caused by the US presidential election. Brent crude futures rose 0.6% to $75.40 a barrel, while U.S. WTI crude rose 0.5% to $72.04 a barrel.

Nvidia Takes the Lead
The leading AI chipmaker rose 2.2%, helped by investor optimism that regulation and tax cuts will be eased following the Republican nominee's election victory. Nvidia's market capitalization reached $3.65 trillion, surpassing Apple's record high of Oct. 21 and becoming the world's most valuable company, according to LSEG.

Apple Strengthens the Market
Apple shares gained 2.1% on Thursday, taking the company's market capitalization to $3.44 trillion. The gains are part of a broader trend in tech, with the S&P 500 index of major tech companies gaining more than 4% over the past two days as Donald Trump wins the presidential election.

Nvidia Leads the AI Race
Nvidia has been the biggest beneficiary of the recent AI frenzy, outperforming giants like Microsoft and Alphabet. Nvidia shares have risen 12% in November and have tripled in value this year. Nvidia is steadily outperforming the world's biggest companies in the race to dominate computing power and cutting-edge technology.

Incredible Market Cap Growth
Today, Nvidia's market cap exceeds the combined value of giants like Eli Lilly, Walmart, JPMorgan, Visa, UnitedHealth Group, and Netflix. Analysts forecast Nvidia's quarterly revenue to increase 80% to $32.9 billion when the company reports results on November 20, underscoring its growing influence in the global market.

Tech trio: tussle for dominance
In June, Nvidia temporarily became the world's most valuable company, but was later overtaken by Microsoft and Apple. Today, the three tech giants are locked in a tight race for the top spot, with each remaining at similar market caps.
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Trump Victory Echoes: S&P 500 Breaks 6,000 on Positive Economic Trends

Markets Riding: Trump, Fed Rates Fuel Optimism
The S&P 500 briefly crossed 6,000 on Friday night, ending the week with its biggest gain of the year. Trump and his political outlook had a powerful impact on investor sentiment, raising hopes for favorable economic reforms.

Economic impact of rate cuts
Expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut announced by the Federal Reserve this week have added confidence to stock markets. The Fed's actions have increased the appetite for growth, which could not but be reflected in the performance of stock indices.

The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) recorded their best weekly results since November 2023. Nasdaq, in turn, demonstrated its best week in two months, strengthening amid growing expectations for economic growth and higher corporate earnings.

Political changes: what does a Republican victory promise?
One of the key factors influencing stock markets has become the political situation in the United States. Donald Trump's victory in the election and the possible control of the Republican Party over the Senate and the House of Representatives create the preconditions for stabilization of the political situation. Many believe that this will facilitate the implementation of ambitious plans for tax cuts and deregulation, which in turn stimulates the growth of corporate profits and investment.

Trump and Tax Reform
Corporate tax cuts and deregulation were the main drivers of the Nasdaq's rally, with three straight days of record closings. As a result, the S&P 500 ended the week with its 50th record close this year, underscoring the strength of the current bullish trend.

Mike Dixon, head of research and quantitative strategy at Horizon Investments, said: "While the 6,000 mark is psychologically significant, given all the events of the week, I don't think it matters whether we close at 6,005 or 5,995. The market still put up an impressive gain."

So, it's been a very positive week for stock indices, with major events like the election and the Fed decision continuing to impact financial markets, creating positive expectations for investors.

Markets in the green: News that influenced the rally
This week brought a lot of positive news for stock markets, with investors reacting strongly to the improvements in the economy and politics. As one analyst emphasized, "this flow of good news is much more important than whether the indicator will be at 6000 or slightly below when the market closes." All this prevails over technical issues, highlighting the strong optimism among traders.

Indices on the rise: Dow at a record
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 259.65 points (0.59%), ending the day at 43,988.99. The S&P 500 added 22.44 points (0.38%), closing at 5,995.54, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 17.32 points (0.09%), reaching 19,286.78.

All three indices posted impressive gains for the week, with the S&P 500 up 4.66%, the Nasdaq up 5.74%, and the Dow up 4.61%.

Records and Strong Sectors
One of the highlights of the week was the Dow's historic performance, which surpassed the 44,000 mark for the first time. Salesforce stood out among the growth drivers, with shares rising 3.59% on the back of the company's plans to hire 1,000 new employees to expand its artificial intelligence business through its Agentforce tool.

Interest rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and utilities were the best performers among the 11 S&P 500 groups. This came as Treasury yields continued to decline for a second session after a sharp jump in the wake of political events.

Fourth consecutive gain
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the week on a positive note, recording a fourth consecutive gain. This confirms that investors are confident that the market will continue to strengthen, despite possible political and economic risks.

Thus, the week turned out to be especially favorable for stock markets, supported by positive news, strengthening of large companies and lower rates, which together gave a strong impetus for further growth.

Market Trends: Yields and Tariffs
Despite positive moves in stock markets, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained at a four-month high. This weighed on investors' expectations for the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. Markets adjusted their forecasts amid growing concerns about the administration's proposed tariffs, which could reignite inflationary pressures.

Russell 2000: Small-cap stocks post strong gains
The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks posted a phenomenal 8.51% gain for the week, the biggest weekly gain since April 2020. Experts believe that stocks focused on the domestic U.S. market are benefiting from favorable economic conditions, such as potential tax relief, less regulation, and less reliance on foreign trade and tariffs.

Consumer Optimism
US consumer sentiment indicators hit a seven-month high in early November, with the household expectations index rising in particular, reaching its highest in three years. Republicans are optimistic about the economic outlook, which is having a noticeable impact on confidence, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Problems in the Tech Sector
Despite the overall market growth, several large companies saw a noticeable decline. For example, Airbnb shares fell by 8.66% after the company failed to meet investors' expectations for third-quarter profit. Pinterest fared even worse, with its shares falling by 14% after disappointing revenue forecasts.

Chinese Companies: Declining Interest
Chinese companies' listings on US exchanges also lost value. Investors did not appreciate the latest fiscal support measures from the Chinese government. For example, JD.com shares fell by 6.99%, while Alibaba lost 5.94%.

Market Leaders and Losers
Amid these fluctuations, rising stocks significantly outnumbered falling stocks. The ratio was 1.7 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange and 1.21 to 1 on the Nasdaq, indicating that positive sentiment prevailed among investors despite some setbacks in large companies.

Markets on the Rise: New Records and Growing Volumes
The S&P 500 Index recorded 88 new 52-week highs and only 10 lows, while the Nasdaq Composite surpassed the 211 new records mark despite 108 lows. Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges amounted to 15.46 billion shares, which was significantly higher than the average of 12.74 billion over the past 20 trading days.

The Fed and Expectations of Rate Cuts
Amid these records, positive economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve supported market sentiment. On Thursday, it announced a long-awaited 25 basis point interest rate cut, helping to bolster investor confidence. But the key question is how long the central bank can maintain this stance, as its actions will depend on how effectively inflation is brought down.

Inflation and Growth Expectations
The November 13 consumer price index report should confirm that inflation is continuing to decline, according to Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth. U.S. inflation data has been an important indicator in recent months for the Fed as it tries to balance its policy between stimulating the economy and controlling prices.

Trump and Potential Tariffs: Risks to Prices
However, investors are concerned about potential tariff hikes proposed as part of Donald Trump's program, which could put pressure on consumer prices and add uncertainty to the economy. Meanwhile, economic data continues to surprise, with a recent report showing the U.S. economy grew by a robust 2.8% in the third quarter, another positive sign.

CPI forecasts: Moderate growth
Economists forecast the consumer price index (CPI) to rise 2.6% in October from a year earlier. That's up slightly from the 2.4% gain in September, which was the slowest in three years. Still, that pace remains well below the peak inflation levels seen in 2022 that prompted the Fed to raise rates sharply.

Inflation Impact on Fed Rates: New Forecasts
As inflation rises, perceptions of how the Federal Reserve will adjust rates in the future are changing. Market expectations have changed significantly since Donald Trump's election victory. According to federal funds futures, investors now expect rates to be cut to 3.7% by the end of 2025, up 100 basis points from September's estimate. These forecast revisions are based on new economic and political realities.

Rate Cuts as Growth Drivers
Expectations of future rate cuts are playing a major role in supporting growth stocks, along with strong corporate earnings results and optimism about artificial intelligence. Investors are betting that easy monetary policy will continue to spur growth, especially in sectors that are actively using new technologies and innovation.

Markets brace for more policy changes
However, the initial euphoria in the markets may come under pressure as Trump begins to reveal specific policy plans and appoint key figures. According to analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management, Trump's victory so far raises more questions than answers for investors. With each new statement from the presidential transition team, markets will test how these changes will affect the economy and financial flows.

Regulation and Opportunities for Wall Street
The expected policy changes have also generated waves of anticipation in the banking and financial sectors. In particular, financial institutions are counting on the loosening of regulations under the new administration. Wall Street is actively preparing to seize this opportunity, hoping for more lenient financial policies that will give impetus to further development and profit growth.

Trump and Lobbyists: Preparing for Regulatory Changes
After Donald Trump's election victory, financial trade groups are busy compiling lists of changes that they want to propose to the new president's transition team. Industry sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, say a list of proposals covering key regulatory issues is already being actively developed for delivery to Trump's team.

Industry Ready for Action
The process is the result of months of discussions between the transition team and various industry groups, lawyers, and lobbyists. The goal of these meetings, the sources say, is to lay the groundwork for implementing Trump's promises when he potentially returns to the White House in 2025. Reflecting the importance of these initiatives, several trade groups are willing to submit their proposals urgently.

Room for Aggressive Moves
The intensity of preparations for potential regulatory changes underscores the new administration's desire to act quickly and decisively, especially in key areas such as banking, where debate has already emerged over future rules and regulations.

Bank Groups Oppose Basel III Endgame
A major concern in the banking industry is the proposed Basel III Endgame rules, which would require large banks to hold significantly more capital to mitigate risk. The measures have already drawn criticism from banking groups, which have lobbied for months to reduce the requirements. Now they are hoping that the new administration will either roll back the rules or offer more flexible changes to ease the burden on financial institutions.

Banks Want Easier Regulation
U.S. banks are actively seeking ways to ease regulations, especially on issues that currently cause them the most trouble. The banks want relief from some tough requirements, including fair lending rules, which they continue to fight in court, according to sources. In addition, the financial institutions are pushing for easier annual stress tests for large banks and easier evaluation of mergers and acquisitions.

Easy Capital and Basel
Large U.S. lenders say that while they support the core principles of the Basel standards, the international norms for the banking industry, they want more flexible capital requirements. The changes would allow banks to stay within existing rules but reduce the burden on banks by allowing them more flexibility in decision-making, people familiar with the matter said. Discussions on the issues are still ongoing, and lobbying efforts are in the early stages.

Banking Regulatory Issues
Another major issue for banks is the tightening of their oversight by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Under Rohit Chopra, the agency has stepped up enforcement efforts, causing further concern in the banking community. The CFPB is becoming a major focus for lobbyists seeking to soften the impact of such initiatives on banking institutions.
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Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 12, 2024

Despite the public holiday in the United States, the market remained active, and the euro continued to lose ground. The reason lies in the aftermath of the elections. While the outcomes of the presidential and Senate elections are clear, the distribution of seats in the House of Representatives remains uncertain. Yesterday, it was reported that the Republican Party is on the verge of securing a majority in both chambers of Congress.

This scenario implies that nothing would prevent the Republicans from passing a new tariff law, primarily affecting the European Union—already in a fragile state. Germany's economy seems to have narrowly avoided slipping into recession, though most economists believe it is inevitable and likely to begin next quarter. The introduction of higher tariffs by the U.S. would only exacerbate the European economy's issues.

In other words, political factors have retaken center stage, and investors are closely monitoring developments in the House of Representatives. With the vote count nearing completion, clarity is expected in the coming days. Should the Republican Party secure victory, the euro will weaken further. Conversely, if the Democrats gain the majority, a significant rebound could occur, potentially leading to a correction.

For now, macroeconomic data will play a secondary role. Moreover, with tomorrow's U.S. inflation report looming, the macroeconomic calendar remains relatively empty until then.
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Crisis on the Horizon? Politics and Economics Drown Dow, Nasdaq, Tesla

Profit-Taking Wave: Wall Street Indexes End Day Lower
The key U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Tuesday as investors sought to take profits after the recent rally that began amid the presidential election. Markets are anxiously awaiting fresh U.S. inflation data this week, which could significantly impact future price action.

Post-Election Records: Investors Assess Prospects
Stock indices have been on a tear since the November 5 election, buoyed by new President Donald Trump's promises to cut taxes and loosen business regulations. Market participants have been buying up shares, hoping that these measures will support economic growth and revive the corporate sector.

Inflation Concerns Have Cooled Enthusiasm
However, optimism in the market declined on Tuesday, as investors began to worry that the policies proposed by the Trump administration could trigger a rise in inflation. Amid these concerns, European markets also fell, losing 2%, after statements from the European Central Bank, who warned that higher tariffs from the United States could hurt the global economy.

Tesla and Others Lose Ground After a Jump
Some companies that investors had previously been buying up in anticipation of their rise under the new administration have retreated after reaching peaks. Tesla (TSLA.O) shares fell 6% on Tuesday, despite an impressive 40% gain since the election.

Economic growth is a positive sign, but bonds are under pressure
Karen Karniol-Tambour, co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater Associates, emphasized at the Yahoo Finance Invest conference that despite the risks, U.S. stocks remain attractive assets amid the expected sustainable economic growth in the U.S. She noted that this dynamic is supporting the stock market, although the yield on 10-year Treasury notes has already reached a four-month high, rising amid an expected review of economic policy.

Russell 2000 - from peak to trough
The Russell 2000 small company index (.RUT) fell 1.8%, although on Monday it finished trading at the highest level in the last three years. Meanwhile, rising Treasury yields have added pressure on stocks as bond investors begin to price in the Trump administration's future policies.

Treasuries as a Worry Signal for Stocks
Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, described the current situation as a difficult balance, with rising 10-year Treasury yields creating a headwind for the stock rally. "On the one hand, investors are cheering about the stimulus package, but on the other, the bond market is signaling its displeasure," he explained.

Ablin added that tariffs, tax breaks, and immigration restrictions could fuel inflation, something that is not lost on the bond market, which is sensitive to such developments.

Global Impact and Inflation Data Expectations
Ameriprise Financial Chief Economist Russell Price noted that U.S. stocks were also pushed lower by weakness in overseas markets and profit-taking ahead of key U.S. inflation data. The consumer price index is due out on Wednesday, followed by producer price and retail sales data, both of which could shed light on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.

These data add short-term risks for investors, Price said. "It's likely the anticipation of these numbers that is driving the modest declines we've seen in the markets today," he said.

Wall Street Closes Lower as Major Indexes Slip
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) ended the day down 382.15 points, down 0.86% to 43,910.98. The S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 17.36 points, or 0.29%, to close at 5,983.99, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 17.36 points, or 0.09%, to close at 19,281.40.

Amgen Under Pressure, Sliding Late
The biggest decliner on the Dow was Amgen (AMGN.O), which fell more than 7% amid a sell-off that intensified toward the end of the session. Amgen shares fell after Cantor Fitzgerald said it could cause side effects from its experimental obesity drug MariTide, which showed a 4% drop in bone mineral density.

Materials and Healthcare Down, Communications Gaining
Among the 11 key S&P 500 sectors, Materials (.SPLRCM) saw the biggest decline, falling 1.6%. The second-largest loser was Healthcare (.SPXHC), with Amgen accounting for a significant portion of the losses. In contrast, Communications (.SPLRCL) was in the green, gaining 0.5% on the day.

Fed Focus: Kashkari and Barkin Assess
The markets also took notice of statements from the Federal Reserve. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday said current U.S. monetary policy remains "moderately restrictive" and is helping to slow inflation and the economy, albeit only slightly. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, meanwhile, said the Fed is prepared to take action if inflation risks intensify or the labor market shows signs of weakening.

Novavax Slips as Revenue Forecast Cuts
Biotech company Novavax (NVAX.O) shares fell 6% after the company announced it was cutting its full-year revenue forecast. The reason was weaker-than-expected sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, which disappointed investors.

Honeywell at its peak: Elliott Investment backs it
Meanwhile, Honeywell (HON.O) shares soared 3.8% to a record high. The rally came as activist investor Elliott Investment increased its stake in the company by more than $5 billion, giving investors confidence in the industrial giant's future growth.

Stocks on the market: More decliners than gainers
Declining stocks were significantly outnumbered on the New York Stock Exchange, with a ratio of 3.48 to 1. Meanwhile, the NYSE recorded 328 new highs and 101 new lows. Declining stocks also outnumbered advancing ones on the Nasdaq, with 3,012 of the 4,336 shares trading down and 1,328 gaining. The S&P 500 posted 55 new 52-week highs and 16 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite added 193 new highs and 129 new lows.

Volumes on the rise, Asian stocks under pressure
Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 15.29 billion shares, above the 20-session average of 13.17 billion. Meanwhile, Asian stocks also fell on Wednesday, as a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields fueled worries ahead of key inflation data that could impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.

Short-term bond yields rise, dollar strengthens
Short-term U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply on Tuesday, hitting their highest since late July. The move also helped the dollar strengthen, hitting a more than three-month high against the Japanese yen as the market reopened after the Veterans Day holiday.

Trump Policy and Inflation Expectations
Since Donald Trump was elected president, rising bond yields have been a clear trend as market participants anticipate that promised tax cuts and tariffs could lead to a larger budget deficit and more government borrowing. Such a scenario, analysts say, would also fuel inflation, making it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates further.

Tug of War: Stocks and Bonds
Against this backdrop, the U.S. stock market enjoyed a record rally, but that optimism quickly turned to caution as bond yields began to rise. Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, noted that the move remains part of the so-called "Trump trade," which is based on the idea of more deficit spending. "However, as we have seen before, higher risk-off asset rates are starting to put pressure on equity valuations, creating a tug-of-war between the bond and equity markets," he added.

Bitcoin Returns to Record High: Betting on Trump's Crypto-Friendly Policy
Bitcoin is slowly but surely moving towards its all-time high, approaching the $90,000 mark. Its price is currently hovering around $88,195, reflecting market participants' expectations inspired by Trump's promise to turn the US into a global crypto hub. Investors are hoping that possible regulatory easing will give the cryptocurrency a new boost.

China in Focus: Commodity Market Weakening
Meanwhile, global commodities have come under pressure as traders are worried about China's economic outlook, which may have to contend with new trade tariffs from the US. The economic stimulus measures announced by Beijing have not yet inspired confidence in the ability of market participants to quickly recover the largest Asian economy.

Asian Markets Tumble
Asian markets are also down, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) down 0.9%, while the mainland China Property Index (.HSMPI) fell 1.3%. Chinese blue chips (.CSI) were unchanged. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) and South Korea's Kospi (.KS11) fell 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively, while Australia's (.AXJO) also fell 1.1%, weighed down by commodity stocks.

US Futures and Bond Yields: Sustained Tension
S&P 500 futures are down 0.1%, continuing their gains after an overnight 0.3% drop. Meanwhile, the yield on two-year Treasury notes hit 4.34%, the first time it has risen to 4.367% since late July. The 10-year yield remains at 4.43%, not far from the four-month high of 4.479% set immediately after Trump's landslide election victory.

Dollar on the cusp: Yen strength raises expectations of intervention
The dollar hit 154.94 yen for the first time since late July before falling back to 154.56 yen. That brings the dollar/yen pair closer to the important 155 yen threshold, which many analysts see as a potential point at which Japanese policymakers could intervene verbally to prevent the yen from weakening further.

Japanese policymakers ready to act
Last week, Atsushi Mimura, head of the Japanese Ministry of Finance's foreign exchange bureau, stressed that Japanese policymakers are prepared to act quickly if there are significant exchange rate movements, raising market expectations of possible intervention.

Dollar Index at Spring Highs
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the currency against a basket of six major currencies including the yen and the euro, settled at 105.92, just off Tuesday's high of 106.17 — the highest since early May.

Fed Rate Cut Prospects: Chances Dim
The chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by a quarter point at its next meeting on Dec. 18 is now 60%, down from 77% a week ago, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

The release of U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data later Wednesday could further weigh on those expectations. Economists are forecasting a 0.3% monthly increase in the core measure, which could dampen hopes for a rate cut.

Euro at one-year low
The euro is trading at $1.0625 after slipping overnight to $1.0595, its lowest in 12 months, reflecting the dollar's resilience amid expectations of a stronger US economy.

Europe under attack: Trump's tariffs will impact
As in China, concerns about US trade policy are growing in Europe. Trump said earlier that the EU would "pay a heavy price" for not importing enough US goods, putting the bloc's economy at risk and adding uncertainty to trade relations.

Copper prices fall: Demand weakens
On the London Metal Exchange, copper prices fell 2% to their lowest in two months. The drop reflected weakening demand for the metal, much of which comes from China, where the economy is also under pressure from global tariffs and domestic problems.

Oil remains under pressure: OPEC forecasts are cut
The global oil market is also going through difficult times. On Tuesday, OPEC revised down its forecasts for global oil demand growth, noting the slowdown in the Chinese economy and weakness in some other regions. Against this background, Brent crude futures rose by 0.2%, reaching $72 per barrel, and American WTI also rose by 0.2%, to $68.26, but remained close to monthly lows.

Gold tries to recover
On the precious metals market, gold strengthened slightly, adding 0.4% and reaching a price of about $2,607 per ounce. This small increase was an attempt by the metal to recoup losses after falling to a nearly two-month low in the previous session, caused by the strengthening dollar.
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Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for November 14-16, 2024: buy above $2,553 (2/8 Murray - rebound)

Early in the European session, Gold (XAU/USD) was trading around 2,563 below 2/8 Murray and within the downtrend channel forming since October 29.

On the H4 chart, we can see that during yesterday's American session, gold reached the area of 3/8 Murray and the 21 SMA, which acted as strong resistance in light of the US inflation data.

In the next few hours, we believe that gold could have a recovery, as technically we observe an oversold signal.

We believe that a technical bounce is likely to occur around the S_1 support located at 2,653 or around the bottom of the downtrend channel located at 2,550. Above this area, we will have an opportunity to buy.

Additionally, if gold consolidates above 2/8 of Murray located at 2,578, it will be seen as a positive signal and we can buy with targets at 2,619 and 2,621.

If gold continues its bearish cycle, the immediate support is located around 2,539 (1/8 Murray). The eagle indicator is reaching an extreme oversold zone. So, we believe that there could be a technical reboundin the next few days.
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Gold ends the week with the worst performance in three years

Gold ends the week with a drop, reaching the lowest level in the last three years. The market value of the precious metal has been declining throughout the week and has lost more than 4% of its value. Spot gold is currently trading at $2,561 per ounce.

Experts believe that the decline in the value of gold is due to a strong dollar and expectations of a stricter US monetary policy under Trump. Also, high interest rates make gold less attractive to investors.

Comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in which he stressed the need for caution in rapidly lowering rates, also affected market sentiment.

Perhaps the price of gold will rise in the future and reach the $ 2,600 mark again, but the coming week will show how the market will be affected by reports on retail sales in the United States and statements by representatives of the Fed.
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Oil is growing amid the aggravation of the geopolitical situation

Oil prices started the week with an increase caused by the aggravation of the geopolitical situation over the weekend. At the same time, concerns about the demand for oil in China, the largest consumer, and forecasts of an abundance of it in the world are holding back price growth.

Brent futures rose 0.34% to $71.67 per barrel, while WTI contracts rose 0.31% to $67.50 per barrel.

The decision of President Biden's administration to allow Ukraine to use American weapons for strikes on Russian territory has become a serious turn in US policy. This event may lead to an increase in the so-called «geopolitical risk premium» in the oil market, as it increases tensions in the world.

A decrease in the capacity of refineries in China and a slowdown in production growth in the country are also causing concern among investors. In addition, uncertainty in global financial markets is related to the pace and scale of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. In the United States, the number of active oil drilling rigs decreased last week, reaching the lowest level since July.
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Tesla Buzz, Nasdaq Gains, Nvidia Intrigue — Wall Street Events

Nasdaq and S&P 500 Results: Nvidia on the Horizon, Tesla Surprises
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 ended Monday's trading in the "green zone," recouping some of their previous losses. Investors turned their attention to Nvidia's (NVDA.O) earnings call, while Tesla's (TSLA.O) shares rose sharply on expectations of favorable policy changes from the new Trump administration.

Nvidia: AI bets continue
Nvidia is set to report third-quarter financial results on Wednesday, with investors awaiting answers to a key question: whether strong demand for chips is continuing and whether the AI euphoria that has driven growth this year is sustaining the market.

The company, which has accounted for about 20% of the S&P 500's earnings over the past 12 months, is expected to post 25% EPS growth in the third quarter, according to analysts at BofA Global Research. However, Nvidia shares fell 1.3% after reports of new AI chips overheating in server systems.

Expert Comments: Moderate Optimism
"Nvidia is the last of the Magnificent Seven to report quarterly results. While we are seeing revenue and interest pick up, the current level of expectations is not as high as it was a quarter or two ago," said Carol Schleif, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office.

Tesla: Jump on Expectations
Tesla shares have soared, reflecting positive market sentiment about possible policy changes associated with the new administration. Such growth underscores investors' desire to seize opportunities in a rapidly changing environment.

The sentiment around Nvidia and Tesla in the coming days may become an indicator of the future direction of the market, which promises many surprises for traders.

US indices: Nasdaq and S&P 500 in the green, Dow Jones declines
Trading on the US stock market on Monday ended with mixed dynamics of key indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) lost 55.39 points (-0.13%) to end at 43,389.60. At the same time, the S&P 500 (.SPX) added 23.00 points (+0.39%) to end at 5,893.62, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 111.69 points (+0.60%) to end at 18,791.81.

Energy and Tesla: Who's Pulling the S&P 500 Up
The energy sector (.SPNY) led the S&P 500, rising 1.05%. Consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) followed suit, adding 1.04%. Tesla was in the spotlight, with shares jumping 5.6% after Bloomberg's report.

Donald Trump's transition team is reportedly considering loosening regulations on self-driving cars, fueling investor interest.

Meanwhile, industrials (.SPLRCI) were among the laggards, posting the biggest declines among sectors.

CVS Health Gains Strength
In notable corporate news, CVS Health (CVS.N) shares rose 5.4%. The jump was the result of the company announcing it would expand its board by adding four new members as part of a deal with Glenview Capital Management.

Experts Predict Volatility
Carol Schleiff, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office, said, "There could be significant volatility in some sectors right now until we hear more details about the decisions of the new Trump team, which is expected later this month."

Market Takes Stock of the Year
Despite a correction following the sharp post-election rally, sentiment on Wall Street remains positive.

The year 2024 is drawing to a close, demonstrating the resilience of the U.S. stock market, although its future direction will depend on political decisions and new macroeconomic factors.

Stock Market: Holiday Season, Political Uncertainty, and Expectations from the Fed
U.S. stock indexes ended last week with the largest losses in the last two months. Investors are worried about the slowdown in the pace of easing by the Federal Reserve, as well as uncertainty around Donald Trump's appointments to his administration.

Retailers under close scrutiny
The start of the week coincided with an active holiday shopping season, which shifts the market's focus to the largest retail players. Walmart (WMT.N), Lowe's Companies (LOW.N) and Target (TGT.N) are preparing to release their results, which will become an indicator of the state of American consumer demand.

Balance of Power: More Winners on the NYSE
On the New York Stock Exchange, gainers outnumbered decliners 1.71 to 1, with 159 new yearly highs and 88 new yearly lows.

On the Nasdaq, the picture was balanced, with 2,158 gainers and 2,150 decliners. The S&P 500 posted 29 new yearly highs and 13 new yearly lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 69 new yearly highs and 265 new yearly lows.

Trading Activity Beats Averages
Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 14.94 billion shares, exceeding the 20-day average of 14.12 billion. This activity indicates that traders are paying close attention to market events.

Global sentiment: Stocks rise, dollar falls
Global markets were positive on Monday, with stocks rising while the US dollar slipped, although it remains close to its yearly peaks. Investors moderated expectations about the Federal Reserve's next move, easing some of the pressure on the currency.

The holiday season is coming, and its outcome is expected to add clarity to the overall picture of the US economy.

Trump appointments and economic uncertainty: focus on key positions
US President-elect Donald Trump is busy building his team, filling important positions in the areas of health care and defense. However, key appointments for financial markets – the Treasury Secretary and the Trade Representative – remain open, adding uncertainty to the outlook.

New policies: taxes and tariffs in focus
The incoming Trump administration is expected to focus on two priorities: tax cuts and higher tariffs. Economists say such measures could trigger higher inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates.

Bond Yields: A Red Flag?
The U.S. Treasury yield market has seen yields fall amid heightened volatility. The benchmark 10-year note has lost 1 basis point to 4.416%.

"The 10-year yield reflects budget and deficit concerns, and signals underlying inflation risks if new tariffs are imposed," said Wasif Latif, president and chief investment officer at Sarmaya Partners.

Inflation: Back on the Table
The structure and scale of tariffs that the new administration may initiate have inflationary potential, according to Latif. "The bond market is sending a clear signal. The stock market may have paused last week, but today it seems to be riding a wave of optimism again," he said.

Markets: Balancing Expectations and Risks
Investors continue to balance optimism over economic stimulus measures with concerns that new tariffs and rising inflation could complicate the Fed's monetary policy. In the coming weeks, attention will focus on filling key positions and the details of the Trump administration's economic strategy.

European Markets Under Pressure: Real Estate and Utilities in the Red
European stock markets ended the day lower, led by weakness in the real estate and utilities sectors. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index (.STOXX) lost 0.06%, reflecting a cautious investor mood.

Global Markets: Gains on Nvidia Expectations
Sentiment was more positive in global markets, with the MSCI World Index (.MIWD00000PUS), which tracks stocks around the world, rising 0.35% to 845.60. Nvidia (NVDA.O) earnings on Wednesday remain in focus.

Analysts expect strong revenue growth from the company, which continues to dominate the AI chip space. Nvidia shares have nearly tripled this year, becoming a key driver of the S&P 500's record highs.

Dollar and Forex: Strengthening Against the Yen
The U.S. dollar rose 0.29% against the Japanese yen to 154.605. However, the dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, was down 0.51% at 106.19. Despite the decline, the currency remains close to its one-year high of 107.07, reflecting the overall strength of the U.S. economy.

Oil Market: Prices Rise Sharply
Oil prices have shown a significant strengthening after the news of production suspension at Norway's largest Johan Sverdrup field.

Brent crude futures closed at $73.30 per barrel, up 3.2%. Similarly, WTI crude also gained 3.2%, closing at $69.16 per barrel.

Looking Ahead: What to Expect from Markets
Investors are eagerly awaiting earnings reports from Nvidia and other tech giants, which could set the tone for future market dynamics. The oil sector continues to react to geopolitical events, while currency traders will be watching for cues from the Federal Reserve.

Gold Returns: Prices Rise After a Week of Losses
Gold prices have rebounded after six straight days of declines. Spot gold rose 1.93% to $2,610.73 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures rose 1.7% to $2,614.60. The weakening U.S. dollar was the main driver of the precious metal's gains.

Market Calm: A Pause in News Flow
"Markets should be more stable this week as the flow of macro and policy news from the U.S. slows," said Jim Reed, head of global economics and thematic research at Deutsche Bank. The agenda continues to focus on the appointment of key figures in the new Donald Trump administration.

S&P 500 Forecasts: Growth in Perspective
Goldman Sachs has updated its forecast for the S&P 500 (.SPX), expecting it to reach 6,500 by the end of 2025. This target implies growth of 10.3% from the current value of the index, which closed at 5,893.62.

Morgan Stanley has provided a similar forecast, suggesting that the S&P 500 will reach the same level by the end of next year. The bank bases its expectations on improving corporate earnings, easing of the Federal Reserve interest rate policy in 2024, and a strengthening business cycle.

Market Leaders: The Magnificent Seven Continue to Dominate
Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the key drivers of the index's growth are the companies of the so-called "Magnificent Seven." These are Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta (banned in Russia), Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. Experts are confident that these giants will outperform the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 in 2024.

Cautious Optimism
The stabilization of the gold market, optimism about the growth of the stock index and the easing of the Fed policy next year create the basis for favorable conditions. However, markets remain sensitive to any new macroeconomic and political events that could change the current trajectory.

The "Magnificent Seven" continue to lead, but by a narrow margin
The shares of tech giants, known as the "Magnificent Seven", retain their leadership, but their gap with the rest of the S&P 500 index will shrink to 7 percentage points, the smallest in the last seven years, Goldman Sachs concluded in a research note published on Monday.

Macro and Micro: Where are the risks hidden?
"While these companies' strong financial results support their outperformance, the impact of macroeconomic factors such as trade policy and economic growth rates strengthens the position of the other 493 companies in the S&P 500," Goldman analysts emphasized.

The company's forecasts include 11% growth in corporate earnings and a 2.5% increase in real US GDP by 2025.

Tariffs and Bonds: A Double Threat for the Market
Goldman Sachs also warned that the US stock market could face serious risks in 2025. Among them are the possible introduction of new tariffs and rising bond yields, which could put pressure on stocks.

On the other hand, a more accommodative fiscal policy or friendly measures from the Federal Reserve could stimulate further growth.

Economic Policy: Betting on Change
Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election brought clarity to the key directions of his economic program. Tax cuts and tariff hikes are the main promises that experts believe could accelerate inflation and limit the Fed's room to maneuver with interest rates.

Earnings Outlook: A Realistic View
Goldman expects S&P 500 earnings per share to rise to $268 by 2025. This figure reflects a positive but cautious view of corporate earnings prospects, given possible macroeconomic changes and political risks.

Results: Balancing Growth and Challenges
Investors are closely monitoring market dynamics, trying to find a balance between the opportunities presented by tech giants and the risks associated with changes in economic and trade policies. A difficult road lies ahead, in which it is important to consider both local and global factors.
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The main events by the morning: November 20

The United States will not change its nuclear policy, despite changes in Russian doctrine. According to Bloomberg, a Pentagon spokesman said that the United States has no data indicating that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The changes in the Russian nuclear doctrine, according to Pentagon officials, did not come as a surprise to Washington.

Biden approved the supply of anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, which are prohibited by an international agreement. The United States made this decision to help Ukrainian troops deter the advance of Russian troops. The shipments include mines that are subject to the prohibitions of the Ottawa Convention, signed by 164 countries, including the United States and Russia.

Japan and China continue to actively sell American government bonds. Japanese investors sold a record $61.9 billion of U.S. bonds in the three months ended September 30, and Chinese funds disposed of $51.3 billion worth of treasuries over the same period. Experts attribute these actions to the expectations of Donald Trump's return to power.

Vladimir Putin will visit India to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Against this background, Bloomberg noted the failure of US efforts to isolate Russia on the world stage. At the same time, Washington cannot put pressure on India, as it considers it a key ally in the confrontation with China.

Trump may lift sanctions against Russia at the end of the conflict in Ukraine. A representative of the President-elect's transition team commented on the prospect of easing and lifting Washington's sanctions against Moscow, as well as normalizing trade and economic relations between the United States and Russia. He stated that this is «certainly an opportunity if the conflict in Ukraine turns out to be resolved.»
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