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Forecast for GBP/USD on August 9, 2023



GBP/USD Over the past two days, we observed that the British pound falsely settled above the MACD indicator line (and above the 23.6% Fibonacci level) on Monday. Then it made a false breakout to the downside on Tuesday, narrowly missing the target support level at 1.2666.







This morning, the price is returning above the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Surpassing yesterday's peak at 1.2784 opens up the target for further corrective growth towards 1.2880 (50.0%). If the price solidifies below 1.2720, it opens up the target at 1.2666. Afterwards, it can further fall towards 1.2590.







On the four-hour chart, the price is trying to overcome the resistance of the MACD line. It's aided by the Marlin oscillator, which is already in the positive territory. The price only needs to settle above 1.2760. It has a 60% chance at growth.



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USDCHF, H4 | React off Resistance level?







The USD/CHF chart currently exhibits a bearish momentum, indicating a continuing downward trend. In light of this bearish sentiment, there's a likelihood of the price extending its decline towards the 1st support level at 0.8718, which gains importance due to its alignment as an overlap support. Additionally, reinforcement to the support structure comes from a secondary support at 0.8678. Conversely, attention is directed towards the 1st resistance level at 0.8776, marked by its classification as a multi-swing high resistance, potentially obstructing upward movement. Furthermore, a 2nd resistance at 0.8824 is identified as a pullback resistance, intensifying its potential to hinder price advancement.



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USDJPY, H4 | React off Resistance level?







The current USD/JPY chart reflects a bearish momentum, indicating an ongoing downward trend. In light of this momentum, there is a possibility that the price might react bearishly upon reaching the 1st resistance level, potentially leading to a decline towards the 1st support. The significance of the 1st support at 143.81 is highlighted as it serves as an overlap support and is further reinforced by a 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement. Similarly, the 2nd support at 142.78 is identified as an overlap support and aligns with a 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement. On the contrary, the 1st resistance level at 144.86 gains importance as a multi-swing high resistance. This level gains additional strength from its alignment with a 61.80% Fibonacci Projection and a 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, adding to its potential as a resistance level.



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USDCHF, Day | React off Resistance level?







The USD/CHF chart is displaying a strong downward trend, indicating bearish momentum.



With this bearish view, there's a possibility of a negative price reaction near the first resistance level, potentially leading to a decline towards the first support level.



The significance of the initial support at 0.8558 is due to its role as a support level marked by multiple swing lows. Also, a secondary support at 0.8312 adds to the overall support structure.



Conversely, the primary resistance level at 0.8769 is notable for aligning with a resistance point observed in earlier data.



Furthermore, a secondary resistance at 0.8902 is recognized as a potential pullback point, potentially introducing resistance against upward movement.



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Forecast of USD/JPY on August 15, 2023



USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair is approaching the target level of 145.90. The Marlin oscillator is gradually turning downwards on the daily chart, indicating a correction towards the nearest support level at 144.73. If the pair surpasses this mark, the next corrective target would be the MACD line at 143.97.







If the price consolidates above 145.90, the pair might continue to rise to the nearest resistance of the global hyperchannel around the 147.90 mark. Beyond this level lies the 148.50 target. The bulls will probably aim for the 147.90-148.50 range next.







The shorter timeframe shows us that the MACD line is approaching the support line of 144.73. This fact certainly supports the uptrend, reducing the risk of a deep correction. However, the Marlin oscillator, being a leading indicator, is not growing but gradually decreasing. We expect traders to struggle at the 144.73 level.



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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 16, 2023



EUR/USD Yesterday's performance was structurally similar to August 10th – a high upper shadow stopped by resistance. This time, the MACD line provided resistance.







At the end of the day, the euro settled below this line and below the target level of 1.0924. Now the target is the support level of 1.0865. Consolidating below this level opens the target range of 1.0761/88. It looks like the stock market is already going into a medium- or long-term decline – we never got the expected corrective spike in quotes.







On the four-hour chart, the price also settled below the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is descending in the downtrend territory.



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GBP/USD, H4 | Bearish Continuation Expected?







The GBP/USD chart exhibits a bearish trend within a descending channel. It suggests a potential move towards the 1st support at 1.2670, aligned with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement. Additional support is at 1.2591, while resistances stand at 1.2779 and 1.2824, linked with Fibonacci retracement and swing levels respectively. The current chart patterns underscore the ongoing bearish momentum.



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Indicator analysis: Daily review of EUR/USD on August 18, 2023



Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The EUR/USD currency pair may move upward from the level of 1.0871 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.0917, the 14.6% pullback level (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, a continued upward movement is possible to the 1.0940 resistance level (thick red line).







Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

Indicator analysis - up;

Fibonacci levels - up;

Candlestick analysis - up;

Trend analysis - up;

Bollinger bands - bottom;

Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:



Today, the price may move upward from the level of 1.0871 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.0917, the 14.6% pullback level (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, a continued upward movement is possible to the 1.0940 resistance level (thick red line).



Alternatively, the price may move upward from the level of 1.0871 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.0917, the 14.6% pullback level (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, a downward movement is possible to the 61.8% pullback level (red dotted line).



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EUR/USD analysis for August 21, 2023 - Key resistance level on the test







Technical analysis:



EUR/USD has been trading upside this morning but I found that market is testing important pivot resistance at 1.0893.



In case of the rejection of the resistance at 1.0893, I see potential downside rotation towards $1.0850.



In case fo the breakout and hold above resistance at 1.0893, I see further rally towards 1.0920 and 1.0950



Stochastic oscillator is showing bullish divergence and bull reading.



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Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Nasdaq 100 Index, Tuesday August 22, 2023







If we look at the 4-hour chart for the Nasdaq 100 index, even though the price is currently below the Supertrend AI indicator, but it has the potential to be corrected upwards, which can be seen from the Trendilo indicator which is trying to break above its Lower band so that 15301.86, and then #NDX still has a chance to continue its decline in the near future to the level of 14701.94 as the main target and 14401.97 as the next target to be achieved.



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Trading plan for GBP/USD on August 23. Simple tips for beginners



Analyzing Tuesday's trades: GBP/USD on 30M chart







The GBP/USD pair showed quite an interesting downward movement on Tuesday. It retreated after testing the upper band of the sideways channel, in which it has been trading in for over three weeks. The chart above clearly shows what we mean. Thus, despite quite an interesting movement during the day (which was not provoked by a macroeconomic or fundamental background), the pair stayed within the sideways channel, meaning that the flat persists. We already mentioned this – no matter what movements we see, the pair is still moving sideways.



On Tuesday, there was nothing interesting about the economic calendar. One report in the US and a speech by a Federal Reserve official. Even if these events had a slim chance of affecting the market, they certainly aren't the reason for the dollar's growth. Since the upper band of the channel has been tested again, so now we can expect the pair to fall to the 1.2620 level.



GBP/USD on 5M chart

Two trading signals were formed on the 5-minute chart. During the European session, the pair hovered around the 1.2787-1.2791 area for several hours, afterwards it finally rebounded from it, forming a sell signal. Subsequently, the price successfully breached the 1.2748 level at its first attempt and there were no more signals for the rest of the day. Therefore, the short position should have been closed manually towards the evening, with a profit of no less than 40 pips, which is quite good given that volatility was 80 points.







Trading tips on Wednesday:



On the 30-minute chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to move in a sideways channel. We still expect the pound to fall, as we still believe it is overbought and unreasonably expensive. However, the market has taken a break for now, so either trade within the sideways channel or wait for the flat to end. In the coming days, we can expect the pound to fall by about 100 pips. The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2499, 1.2538, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2653, 1.2688, 1.2748, 1.2787-1.2791, 1.2848-1.2860, and 1.2913. Once the price moves 20 pips in the right direction after opening a trade, you can set the stop-loss at breakeven. On Wednesday, PMIs in the services and manufacturing sectors will be published in both the UK and the US. These aren't crucial reports, and they are unlikely to move the pair out of the flat.



Basic trading rules:

1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal.

2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored.

3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.

4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.

5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.

6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.



How to read charts:



Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.



Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade.



MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines.



Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.



Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.



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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 24, 2023



EUR/USD

Yesterday, the euro broke through the key support level at 1.0834. By the end of the day, the euro had risen by 17 points. The nature of this movement suggests that this breakthrough was false. This morning, the price continues to rise above the 1.0865 level. The Marlin oscillator continues its upward turn. Market participants are concerned that tomorrow, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will confirm the idea of a strong American economy and hint at another rate hike(possibly by 0.50%).







The concern arises from the fact that seemingly obvious things might be interpreted differently by the Fed itself, implying that there might be no further tightening. Generally, the Jackson Hole conference doesn't discuss specific issues, such as a rate hike in a month or two, so there will be opportunities for speculation in interpreting Powell's words. Considering the increased volatility of the EUR/USD pair, it might reach the target range of 1.0924/42 regardless of the tone set by the Fed chair. The question is about the euro's medium-term perspective.







On the four-hour chart, following the false downward movement, the price returned above the MACD line, and the Marlin oscillator entered the positive territory. An uptrend in the short-term, and the target range of 1.0924/42 is in sight. Consolidating above this range will open up the next target at 1.1012.



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EURUSD, H4 | Bounce off support level?







The EUR/USD pair is showing bearish tendencies, emphasized by its movement in a descending channel and its position beneath a bearish Ichimoku cloud, hinting at a possible price reversal. Given these signals, the pair may continue its descent towards the 1st support at 1.0741. This support gains significance from being an overlap support and its alignment with the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension and 100% level. The 2nd support lies at 1.0666, known as a swing low support. If there's an upward shift, the 1st resistance is at 1.0837, marked as an overlap resistance. The 2nd resistance is at 1.0923, another overlap point. In between, an intermediate resistance exists at 1.0802, serving as a pullback resistance.



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USDCHF, Day | React off resistance level?







The USD/CHF chart displays a bearish trend within a descending channel, indicating a continued price decline. There's a potential for the price to react bearishly at the 1st resistance of 0.8850, influenced by its overlap resistance classification and Fibonacci confluence with the 50% and 61.80% retracement levels, before moving towards the overlap-supported level at 0.8702. The 2nd resistance at 0.8920, also an overlap resistance, strengthens its significance by aligning with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement.



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JAPAN JOBLESS RATE RISES TO 2.7% IN JULY







The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 2.7 percent in July, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Tuesday.



That exceeded expectations for 2.5 percent, which would have been unchanged from the June reading.



The jobs-to-applicant ratio ticked down to 1.29, shy of forecasts for 1.30, which again would have been unchanged.



The participation rate was 63.1 percent, matching forecasts and steady from the June level.



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