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Post by instaforexbella on Jul 8, 2024 4:30:52 GMT -5
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 8, 2024 Although 206,000 new jobs were created outside the agricultural sector, significantly exceeding the forecast of 160,000, the overall content of the US Department of Labor report turned out to be simply appalling. This was mostly due to the downward revision of previous data from 272,000 to 218,000. This means that for three consecutive months, fewer than 250,000 new jobs have been created, which is not even enough to maintain labor market stability. Consequently, the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%. In other words, unemployment has been rising for three consecutive months. This sharply increases the likelihood of interest rate cuts during the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which led to the dollar's weakness. The issue lies in the extremely weak data, which were significantly worse than expected. Considering that today's economic calendar is practically empty, the market will be guided by other factors, particularly the dollar's oversold condition. In addition, the results of the early parliamentary elections in France are likely to disappoint the markets. This is not so much due to the defeat of President Macron's party but rather because of the clear victory of parties that the media describe as far-right. From the perspective of leading business publications, which significantly influence the markets, this is a highly negative factor. Thus, the dollar has every chance to recover some of its recent losses. EUR/USD closed the week above the level of 1.0800, which in terms of technical analysis is a sign that the market sentiment is bullish. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI reached the overbought zone and left. Based on the absence of a complete corrective movement, we can conclude that at this time the market is reassessing long positions on the euro. On the same chart, the Alligator moving averages are headed upwards, which corresponds to the upward cycle. Outlook If we focus solely on the technical analysis, keeping the price above the level of 1.0800 may eventually lead to further growth for the euro, on the basis of which it is possible to test the local high of the medium-term trend. The bearish scenario will come into play in case of a pullback, if the price settles below the level of 1.0800 for at least a 4-hour period. In terms of complex indicator analysis, the short-term period does not have stable indicators since the price is stagnant. In the daily period, the bullish sentiment is still in force. Analysis are provided by InstaForex. Read more: ifxpr.com/4637Dwf
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Post by instaforexbella on Jul 9, 2024 2:31:14 GMT -5
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 9, 2024 In the absence of any economic reports or news, the market remained in its previous positions. But today it must move. And it's not about the imminent release of US inflation data. After all, this data will be released on Thursday. Today, Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell will testify before the US Senate Banking Committee. And tomorrow, he is due to report to the House of Representatives. Politicians will certainly raise the issue of interest rates, especially since the unemployment rate in the United States has been rising for three consecutive months. As a result, the market has revised its expectations regarding the timing and pace of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing. Investors are hoping to receive confirmation of the updated forecasts. If these expectations are met, the dollar will resume its decline. EUR/USD maintains a bullish bias after settling above the 1.0800 level. As a result, there is an increase in the volume of long positions. This may point to the recovery process in the euro. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the upper area of 50/70, which points to the bullish sentiment. On the same chart, the Alligator moving averages are headed upwards, which corresponds to the upward cycle. Outlook If the price settles above the 1.0800 mark, it could climb to the 1.0900 level. The bearish will come into play if the price returns below the 1.0800 level. Analysis are provided by InstaForex. Read more: ifxpr.com/4eYrKj9
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Post by instaforexbella on Jul 10, 2024 3:47:06 GMT -5
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 10, 2024 Although senators asked Jerome Powell questions about lowering interest rates, the head of the Federal Reserve System gave little away and he gave evasive answers. So, the situation remains unchanged. Today's speech in the House of Representatives is unlikely to bring anything new either. Moreover, the U.S. central bank is waiting for inflation data, which will be released tomorrow. Thus, the most likely scenario is a period of market stagnation. Despite the fact that the EUR/USD pair has slowed down its upward cycle, the quote has been holding above the 1.0800 level for five trading days. This points to bullish sentiment. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the upper area of 50/70, which corresponds to an upward trend. On the same chart, according to the Alligator indicator, two out of the three moving average lines are intertwined. This indicates that the upward cycle is stagnant. Outlook The euro could rise further if the price settles above the 1.0800 level. We expect an increase in the volume of long positions above the 1.0850 mark. The bearish scenario will come into play if the price returns below the 1.0800 level. Comprehensive indicator analysis in the short term does not have stable indicators due to stagnation. In the intraday period, the indicators are reflecting an upward cycle. Analysis are provided by InstaForex. Read more: ifxpr.com/4cXsKm3
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Post by instaforexbella on Jul 11, 2024 1:58:57 GMT -5
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Weekly Price Movement of S&P 500 Index, Thursday July 11 2024. Even though on the weekly chart the S&P 500 index still appears to be dominated by Buyers, this is indicated and confirmed by the price movement of #SPX which moves harmoniously in an upward channel and the price movement is above the EMA 20 & EMA 50, but with the appearance of deviations between price movements #SPX which makes higher-highs in its price movements while the MACD indicator makes higher-lows on the contrary, so in the next 1 to 2 weeks it has the potential to be corrected and weakened down to level 5322.39, but as long as the weakening correction does not penetrate below level 4946.59, this index will still has the opportunity to strengthen again to level 5919.63. Analysis are provided by InstaForex. Read more: ifxpr.com/3WhML0X
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Post by instaforexbella on Jul 12, 2024 4:12:49 GMT -5
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 12, 2024 Inflation in the United States was expected to decrease from 3.3% to 3.1%, which in itself convinced the market of the imminent start of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve. However, US consumer inflation eased to 3.0% in June. As a result, the dollar immediately started to lose its positions quite significantly. The market is now convinced of two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. The first rate cut is expected in September, and the second in December. These forecasts and expectations are quite justified. So, locally, the market is entering a phase where the USD stays lower. Of course, there will be pauses and minor pullbacks along this path. Something similar was observed yesterday, closer to the end of the U.S. trading session. Most likely, the pullback will continue today, and the market will try to settle slightly below current values. After that, the pair could move towards the dollar's decline. During speculative growth, EUR/USD almost reached the level of 1.0900, and the volume of long positions decreased. As a result, the market experienced a minor pullback, which can be considered a process of regrouping trading forces. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI locally ended up in the overbought zone when it reached the resistance level of 1.0900. On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which reflects the quote's movement. Outlook To start a new wave of growth, the price must settle above the 1.0900 level. Otherwise, the current pullback may linger in the market. In terms of complex indicator analysis, a pullback is likely in the short term. Indicators signal an upward cycle in the intraday period. Analysis are provided by InstaForex. Read more: ifxpr.com/3zDZu5n
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Post by instaforexbella on Jul 15, 2024 2:53:40 GMT -5
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 15, 2024 EUR/USD By the end of the week, the euro managed to reach the target level of 1.0905, which is the upper boundary of the descending price channel on the weekly timeframe. The divergence with the Marlin oscillator suggests a reversal, but once again, a gap is interfering. This gap doesn't significantly affect the technical pattern of the reversal because it can be recouped without any noticeable impact. If the price manages to consolidate above 1.0905, the euro will continue to rise to 1.0964 or even higher. A double divergence has formed on the 4-hour chart. Recouping the gap may not even disrupt the divergence. The first sign of a reversal is when the price moves below the Kijun-sen line (1.0853). This will likely happen no sooner than tomorrow. Analysis are provided by InstaForex. Read more: ifxpr.com/3W5mwtf
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Post by instaforexbella on Jul 16, 2024 4:26:29 GMT -5
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 16, 2024 Yesterday, the dollar was stable amid mixed economic reports and statements of the central bank officials. On the one hand, the eurozone industrial production data, the rate of decline of which slowed down from -3.1% to -2.9%, should have lifted the dollar. After all, despite the slowdown, it was expected to rise from -3.0% to -2.0%. But this was offset by Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell's statement that the inflationary dynamics in the United States indicates a slowdown in consumer price growth to the target level of 2.0%. In other words, the head of the Fed almost directly stated that the rate cut is coming into view. And naturally, this weighs on the dollar. Today, the market can focus on the U.S. retail sales report, the growth rate of which should slow down from 2.3% to 2.1%. So the doll During the upward cycle, locally EUR/USD found itself at the values of the beginning of spring, which indicates the prevailing interest in long positions. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the upper area of 50/70, which suggests that the euro may rise further. On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which reflects the quote's movement. Outlook Keeping the price above the level of 1.0900 may lead to an increase in the volume of long positions. In this scenario, the euro could move towards the resistance level of 1.1000. Otherwise, the area of 1.0900 will act as resistance, which will lead to a temporary stagnation or a pullback. The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the short-term and intraday periods, indicators are providing an upward signal. Analysis are provided by InstaForex. Read more: www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/382297
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Post by instaforexbella on Jul 17, 2024 4:22:41 GMT -5
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 17, 2024 The dollar was steady despite relatively good data on retail sales. In fact, their growth rate in the United States slowed from 2.6% to 2.3%. The thing is that the growth rate was expected to slow down from 2.3% to 2.1%. So in theory, the dollar should have strengthened somewhat. However, the general sentiment on the dollar is quite negative, as investors expect the Federal Reserve to start lowering its interest rate soon. Thus, the retail sales data simply supported the dollar, preventing it from falling further. Apparently, today we expect a repeat of yesterday's scenario. Sentiments about the Fed's monetary policy still weighs on the dollar. It will be supported by the industrial production data, whose growth rate in the United States should accelerate from 0.1% to 0.4%. But the eurozone inflation data as a whole can not be considered, as the final data are published, designed only to confirm the preliminary estimates, the market has already taken into account. EUR/USD is moving around the resistance level of 1.0900, which indicates that the bullish sentiment is still in force. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the upper area of 50/70, which suggests that the euro may rise further. On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which reflects the quote's movement. Outlook Based on the absence of a full-scale correction, we can conclude that there's a high volume of long positions on the euro. Rising above the level of 1.0900 may lead to a new round of growth, where buyers will face the psychological level of 1.1000. As an alternative scenario, traders are considering movement along the level of 1.0900. The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the short-term and intraday periods, indicators are providing an upward signal. Analysis are provided by InstaForex. Read more: ifxpr.com/3Y7Vbtc
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Post by instaforexbella on Jul 18, 2024 2:33:38 GMT -5
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 18, 2024 Despite excellent industrial production data, with growth rates in the United States accelerating from 0.3% to 1.6%, the dollar still weakened somewhat. What's even more intriguing is the fact that this happened long before the industrial production data was published. And even before the final inflation data was released in the eurozone. Although they certainly couldn't have influenced anything, as they completely matched estimates. Apparently, this is how the market prepares for the Federal Reserve drawing closer to an interest rate cut. The market is confident that this will happen as early as September. However, today, market participants will focus on the European Central Bank's board meeting. And although the ECB's interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, given the inflation dynamics and extremely weak macro data, ECB President Christine Lagarde may still hint at another rate cut. Thus, indicating that the disparity in interest rates between the dollar and the euro could grow even more in favor of the greenback. As a result, the dollar could retreat to the levels seen at the start of yesterday's trading. As the volume of long positions rose when EUR/USD settled above the 1.0900 level, the price moved towards the main psychological level of 1.1000. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI locally reached the overbought zone, but it did not hit any of the critical levels. For this reason, buying volumes still have the potential to rise. On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which reflects the quote's movement. Outlook In case the pair rises further, the quote may reach the psychological level, but it is important to take note of the euro's overbought status. Thus, the pair could pull back or become stagnant within the boundaries of the psychological level. An increase in buying volumes may take place after the price settles above the 1.1050 level. The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the short-term and intraday periods, indicators are providing an upward signal. Analysis are provided by InstaForex. Read more: ifxpr.com/4f55FzB
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Post by instaforexbella on Jul 19, 2024 2:37:20 GMT -5
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 19, 2024 The European Central Bank was widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. What came as a surprise were the Bank's extremely pessimistic assessments of the eurozone economy. This suggests not just further easing of monetary policy, but possibly a more aggressive rate cut. Moreover, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the next interest-rate meeting is "wide open", hinting that another cut is possible. So, it should not be surprising that the euro actively fell on these remarks. Nevertheless, it is likely to be temporary. The market has long been anticipating the ECB's rate cuts. The main focus now is the upcoming rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, once the media starts discussing this topic more actively, the euro will likely rise again. It is quite possible that within just a couple of days, the market will return to the levels seen at the start of yesterday's trading. The volume of long positions on the EUR/USD pair decreased within the lower range of the psychological level of 1.0950/1.1000. As a result, a pullback occurred, causing the price to drop below the 1.0900 mark. The RSI dropped below the average level of 50 in the 4-hour time frame during the price pullback, indicating an increase in the volume of short positions on the euro. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, two out of three moving average lines are intertwined, indicating a slowdown in the upward cycle. However, these are initial signs of a slowdown, which do not change the overall trend. Outlook If the price settles below 1.0900 by the end of the week, the pair may enter a corrective phase. Otherwise, the euro's local weakness may benefit the bulls, leading to a new stage of growth. Complex indicator analysis points to a corrective move in the short-term and intraday time frames. Analysis are provided by InstaForex. Read more: ifxpr.com/3SdOMZC
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Post by instaforexbella on Jul 22, 2024 4:20:53 GMT -5
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Indicator analysis: Daily review of GBP/USD on July 22, 2024 Trend Analysis (Fig. 1) Today, GBP/USD may start moving upward from the 1.2908 level (the close of Friday's daily candle) with a target of 1.2941 – the 23.6% retracement level (red dotted line). The price will likely rise from this level with a target of 1.2980 – the 14.6% retracement level (red dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart) Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator Analysis – Up; Fibonacci Levels – Up; Volumes – Up; Candlestick Analysis – Down; Trend Analysis – Up; Bollinger Bands – Up; Weekly Chart – Up. General Conclusion: Today, GBP/USD may start moving upward from the 1.2908 level (the close of Friday's daily candle) with a target of 1.2941 – the 23.6% retracement level (red dotted line). The price will likely rise from this level with a target of 1.2980 – the 14.6% retracement level (red dotted line). Alternative Scenario: The pair may attempt to continue the downward movement from the level of 1.2908 (the close of Friday's daily candle) with a target of 1.2820 – the 8 EMA (blue thin line). The price will likely rise from this line with a target of 1.2980 – the 14.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). Analysis are provided by InstaForex. Read more: ifxpr.com/3Wm0V06
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Post by instaforexbella on Jul 23, 2024 3:46:39 GMT -5
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of NZD/USD Commodity Currency Pairs, Tuesday July 23, 2024. With the appearance of deviations between price movements and the MACD Histogram indicator on the 4-hour chart of the NZD/USD commodity currency pair, in the near future there will be a strengthening correction in the Kiwi even though currently the bias is still weak, which is confirmed by the price movement which is below the EMA 20 & EMA 50, but as long as the strengthening correction does not broken above the 0.6061 level, NZD/USD will have the potential to weaken again to the 0.5930 level as the main target and if momentum and volatility support it, NZD/USD will fall to the 0.5839 level. Analysis are provided by InstaForex. Read more: ifxpr.com/4cSfxLF
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Post by instaforexbella on Jul 24, 2024 2:31:10 GMT -5
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of GBP/USD Main Currency Pairs, Wednesday July 24, 2024. The cable on the 4-hour chart is still in a bullish condition where this condition is confirmed by the position of the EMA 50 which is still above the EMA 200 (Golden Cross). However, currently there is a weakening correction and has the potential to bring GBP/USD to the level of the 1.2845-1.2829 area. However, as long as the downward correction does not broken below the 1.2775 level, GBP/USD will strengthen again because this is confirmed by the appearance of deviations between price movements and the MACD Histogram indicator and the existence of a Failing Wedge pattern. where based on these two indicators, GBP/USD has the potential to appreciate stronger to the level of 1.2941 and if momentum and volatility support it, GBP/USD will continue its strengthening to the level of 1.3043. Analysis are provided by InstaForex. Read more: ifxpr.com/3YhvNRR
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Post by instaforexbella on Jul 25, 2024 3:55:41 GMT -5
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 25, 2024 The forex market continues to tread water despite the release of economic reports. According to preliminary assessments, European business activity indices have all declined, while only the manufacturing sector's business activity index showed a decrease in the US. Conversely, the composite index and the services PMI data showed growth and exceeded forecasts. Nevertheless, this had no impact on the situation. The weak eurozone data only prevented the dollar from falling. Almost simultaneously, corporate media began promoting the idea of a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in July. This idea may gain traction and pressure the market, contributing to the dollar's weakness. Considering that today's macro data will have a minor impact, as changes in unemployment claims are expected to be purely symbolic, the market will likely gradually move towards pushing for the dollar's decline. EUR/USD is in a corrective phase, trading from the lower area of the psychological level 1.0950/1.1000. As a result, the quote has dropped more than 100 pips, which fits within the cyclical component of the upward trend. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI indicator is moving in the lower area of the 30/50 range. However, it touched the oversold level, indicating an excessive volume of short positions in the euro. During the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs point downwards, aligning with the corrective cycle's direction. Outlook The euro may reach the 1.0800 level if the corrective phase remains intact. However, based on the technical signs of the euro's oversold conditions in the short term, selling volumes may eventually fall, which, in theory, will lead to the end of the corrective cycle. In terms of complex indicator analysis, the volume of long positions may likely rise in the short term. Meanwhile, the bearish bias persists in the intraday period. Analysis are provided by InstaForex. Read more: ifxpr.com/4dgwTl3
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Post by instaforexbella on Jul 26, 2024 3:35:39 GMT -5
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 26, 2024 The situation in the market remains unchanged, and in general, the changes have been purely superficial for the entire week. This is partly due to an almost empty economic calendar. On the other hand, after the sharp increase in political uncertainty in the United States over the past weekend, following Joe Biden's announcement of his withdrawal from the election race, the situation had noticeably become more stable by Monday evening. This also contributed to the normalization of the currency market. Moreover, while at the beginning of the week, American media were trying to hype the potential for an interest rate cut this month, by mid-week, it seemed that everyone had forgotten about it. It appears that nothing will change today either, especially with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting approaching in the middle of next week. The media coverage will likely intensify on Monday, with countless predictions and discussions about the possibility of interest rate cuts. The corrective cycle slowed down around the 1.0825 level. This was followed by a pullback-stagnation phase, characterized by a typical realignment of trading forces. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI indicator is moving in the lower area of the 30/50 range, which suggests that the bearish bias remains intact. In the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs point downwards, aligning with the corrective cycle's direction. Outlook Assuming the bearish sentiment persists, the euro could fall to 1.0800. However, it is important to consider that the upward trend generally remains intact, and the current correction still fits within its cyclical phase. Therefore, it is crucial to carefully analyze potential support levels from which the price could initiate a rebound, possibly marking the beginning of a recovery process in the euro. In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that in the short term, technical indicators lack stable signals due to the stagnant phase. Meanwhile, in the intraday period, the indicators reflect a bearish cycle. Analysis are provided by InstaForex. Read more: ifxpr.com/3WEzf83
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