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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 4, 2024



Yesterday, September 3rd, was quite eventful: The S&P 500 was down 2.12%, oil was down 4.78%, the dollar index was up 0.07%, and the yield on 5-year U.S. government bonds down 2.09% to 3.63%. Given this turn of events, the likelihood of the euro reversing from the support of the embedded green price channel line is very low. We expect the support at 1.1010 to be breached and the target level of 1.0950 to be reached. The Marlin oscillator on the daily time frame has entered the downtrend territory.

In the 4-hour chart, Marlin is rising against the trend of the daily oscillator and has even formed a slight convergence with the price. There are two possible scenarios here: a market reversal pattern or a standard limited rise—a brief release of oscillator tension before further decline. The reversal could occur either at the zero line or slightly above it, forming a false breakout into the positive territory.

However, what interests us most now is the market reversal pattern. According to the CFTC data, the largest euro position of the current year was accumulated last week. A fresh report will be released on Friday. If the big players plan to knock out the rest of the market participants, the timing is perfect. One of the key upcoming releases is the U.S. labor report for August, due the day after tomorrow. The forecast suggests an increase in new jobs by 160-164,000 compared to 114,000 in July and a decrease in the unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.2%. Undoubtedly, such data will lower the still-aggressive market expectations regarding the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, and this could result in the closure of euro purchases.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 5, 2024



Despite yesterday's increase in volatility and the expansion of the sideways range, the euro maintained the boundaries of safe wandering, closing the day at the upper boundary of this range—at the resistance level of 1.1085. The Marlin oscillator continued to develop within a narrow range along the zero neutral line.

Today, the euro will likely decline as we await tomorrow's US employment data. The data is expected to be strong, and the primary scenario for the euro remains bearish. An attack on the support level of 1.1010 is likely. In the 4-hour chart, the price convergence with the Marlin oscillator has been processed.

The price was raised by 67 pips from the day's low. At the resistance level of 1.1065, the price also met the balance indicator line. A downward price reversal from this line tells us that yesterday's rise was a standard correction. A breakdown of the downward movement is possible if the price consolidates above the level of 1.1140, which is marked as a key MACD line.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on September 6, 2024



The EUR/USD pair is in a recovery phase from a recent corrective cycle. The upper deviation of the psychological level of 1.1000/1.1050 serves as a support, where an increase in the volume of long positions was observed. In the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the buyers' area of 50/70, indicating an increase in the volume of long positions for the euro. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines have changed direction from downward to upward, corresponding to the end of the corrective phase. Expectations and Prospects In case of further growth, we expect the euro to recover fully, with a target at the resistance level of 1.1200. This move may indicate an extension of the medium-term upward trend. However, due to the release of the United States Department of Labor report, technical analysis takes a back seat, as speculators will primarily focus on data when making trading decisions. The complex indicator analysis points to the process of the euro's recovery in the short-term, intraday, and medium-term periods.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 9, 2024



The currency market's reaction to Friday's US employment data was surprisingly muted – the dollar index changed by 0.07%, gold dropped by 0.73%, and oil by 2.14%. The stock market reacted strongly, with a decline of 1.73%. In the non-farm sector, 142,000 new jobs were created in August against a forecast of 162,000, with July's figures revised downward by 25,000. Unemployment decreased from 4.3% to 4.2%. The broader U6 unemployment rate increased from 7.8% to 7.9%. However, hourly earnings increased by 0.4% for the month. Overall, our expectations for good data were met. But we don't see the authorities' desire to manipulate the market here; the data came out at the forecast level and maintained a slight intrigue regarding the September rate cut. We believe the rate will be lowered by 0.25%, but some players are still pricing in a 30% probability of a 0.50% rate cut in September and a 41% probability of a 0.50% cut at the December meeting. Hence, the main movement of the dollar strengthening will start from September 18.

On Thursday, September 12, the European Central Bank will lower the rate by 0.25%. Market participants fully anticipate such a decrease, but it has not yet been priced in. We believe that market participants will wait until the Federal Reserve's decision and then start actively buying dollars. Currently, on the daily chart, the euro is in a balanced state—at the support level of 1.1085—and this equilibrium is confirmed by the Marlin oscillator, which is on the zero line. According to the main scenario, the euro needs to consolidate below the support level, and then an attempt can be made to target 1.1010. Generally, we expect the euro to be in the range of 1.0888-1.0905.

In the 4-hour chart, the price is above the balance line, with Marlin in the positive area. Price growth is possible, but it is limited by the MACD line around 1.1113. In general, the sideways movement of the euro is likely today and tomorrow.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 10, 2024







At the end of yesterday, the euro fell by 51 pips. This is probably a continuation of the reaction to Friday's US employment data. The euro can no longer hold back the obvious (reasons) — the imminent European Central Bank rate cut and the restrained pace of the Federal Reserve's rate cut on a locally overbought euro. Germany's CPI for August will be released today, expected to fall from 2.3% y/y to 1.9% y/y. In the UK, July's unemployment rate is expected to fall from 4.2% to 4.1%. The euro may continue its downward slide.



The euro is still within the consolidation range of 1.1030/85 theoretically, but on the daily time frame, the price is already pushing through the nearest embedded line of the descending green price channel. The movement's target is the level of 1.1010. From there, an assault on 1.0950 will begin, reinforced by the MACD line. If the price is not contained, we expect strong movement directly from the moment the ECB cuts rates on September 12th.



In the 4-hour chart, the price consolidated below both indicator lines, with Marlin declining in the negative area. The prevailing short-term trend is downward.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 11, 2024



If the debate between Donald Trump and Joseph Biden was a real disaster, yesterday's debate with Kamala Harris was much smoother and didn't cause any panic. So, the markets were able to ignore them. Investors can now calmly focus solely on U.S. inflation, especially since the rate of consumer price growth is expected to slow from 2.9% to 2.6%. This would likely convince the markets of a 50-basis-point cut in the Federal Reserve's interest rate. Thus, there is a high likelihood of a significant weakening of the U.S. dollar.

After testing the previous week's local low, the EUR/USD pair has resumed its corrective cycle. However, this movement didn't lead to any radical changes; the price merely returned to the upper deviation area of the psychological level of 1.1000/1.1050. In the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the lower 30/50 range, indicating bearish sentiment among market participants. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point downwards, which coincides with the direction of the price movement. Expectations and Prospects Stabilizing the price below the 1.1000 mark is necessary for the next phase of the decline. However, this would only shift the local support level to the lower region of the psychological range. Until that happens, traders are considering a price rebound as the main scenario on the market. The complex indicator analysis suggests a price rebound in the short term, while indicators point to a downward cycle in the intraday period.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 12, 2024

The slowdown in inflation in the United States turned out to be more significant than even the most optimistic forecasts, yet the situation in the currency market remained unchanged. Almost immediately after it was revealed that the consumer price growth rate had slowed from 2.9% to 2.5%, major media outlets began focusing on core inflation, particularly in its monthly measure rather than the annual one. Core inflation increased by 0.3%. Although the U.S. central bank never mentions this indicator and is thus largely insignificant, the media started claiming that the Federal Reserve will slowly lower interest rates because of core inflation. As a result, the media frenzy somewhat balanced out the actual data, leaving the market in its previous position. Today, all eyes are on the European Central Bank's board meeting. The market has long been prepared for the refinancing rate to be lowered from 4.25% to 4.00%, so this fact will not affect investor sentiment. Everything will depend on the statements ECB President Christine Lagarde may make during the subsequent press conference, particularly regarding the central bank's future actions. The market is concerned only with the pace of monetary policy easing at least until the end of this year. If the head of the ECB announces even one more rate cut, it will substantially boost the U.S. dollar, allowing it to continue strengthening its position.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 13, 2024



Perhaps never before have we seen a scenario where, following a 60 basis point cut in the refinancing rate, the currency issued by the central bank making such a significant move actually rises. But that's precisely what happened yesterday. After the European Central Bank lowered the interest rate from 4.25% to 3.65%, the single currency didn't even consider a decline. On the contrary, it grew quite confidently. And this was the largest single cut in the refinancing rate in the entire history of the ECB. While it's now listed in virtually every economic calendar that this outcome was predicted, that's not entirely accurate. Right before the meeting, forecasts were pointing to a rate of 4.00%. That was changed almost after the fact. So, this large cut was an outright surprise. This raises the question of why the euro continued to rise afterward. The answer lies in the comments made by ECB President Christine Lagarde. During her press conference, she explicitly stated that the ECB is putting the monetary policy easing process on hold. In other words, no more rate cuts for now. The market, however, had expected this process to be drawn out over a more extended period. Now, the Federal Reserve will be lowering interest rates, not the ECB. This shift in expectations likely spurred the euro's rise. However, interest rates in the United States are still significantly higher than those in Europe, which is unlikely to change. The only question is the size of the interest rate disparity. This fact will continue to put pressure on the euro. Once the market recovers from the initial shock, the dollar will likely resume steadily strengthening its position.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 16, 2024







The market is starting to prepare for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting this Wednesday, which is causing the euro to continue strengthening its position. The anticipation centers around the market's expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. There are still strong expectations of a 50-basis-point cut. As a result, it may turn out that after the first rate cut in several years, the dollar could rise if the Fed lowers the key rate by only 25 bps. Until then, the dollar will likely remain under pressure and gradually lose value.



The EUR/USD pair is currently in a recovery phase following a recent corrective move. The psychological level of 1.1000 serves as support. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator moves within the buyers' area of 50/70, indicating an upward sentiment among market participants. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upward, aligning with the price movement. Expectations and Prospects If the next stage of the euro's recovery continues amid the market's dollar sell-off, stabilizing the price above the 1.1100 mark could increase the volume of long positions. Under this scenario, the pair may move at least toward the recent local high of September. As an alternative scenario, there could be a slowdown in the recovery cycle, with the price returning to the upper area of the psychological level. The complex indicator analysis indicates an ongoing upward cycle in the short-term, intraday, and medium-term periods.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 17, 2024







Leading media outlets are increasingly promoting the idea of a 50-basis point cut in the U.S. rate, contributing to further weakening of the U.S. dollar. Considering that the Federal Open Market Committee meeting is tomorrow, this trend is likely to persist until the close of today's trading. However, the scale of the dollar's weakening is expected to be somewhat more modest than yesterday. The dollar will find some support from macroeconomic data. Despite the possible slowdown in retail sales growth, from 2.7% to 2.2%, the decline in industrial production of -0.3% is likely to turn into growth of 0.2%. So, two key sectors of the economy might show growth, which should provide at least some support for the dollar.



Since the start of the new trading week, the euro's recovery has accelerated, allowing it to surpass the 1.1100 level. This price movement indicates more than a 60% recovery relative to the recent corrective cycle. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the buyers' area of 50/70, indicating a bullish market sentiment. It is worth noting that the overbought zone has already been reached. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upward, aligning with the price movement. Expectations and Prospects The price's stabilization above 1.1100 may indicate further growth in the volume of long positions in the euro, which, from a technical analysis perspective, suggests the possibility of the price rising toward the resistance level of 1.1200. The alternative scenario considers a slowdown in the upward cycle in the form of a pullback due to the euro's local overbought condition in the short term. The complex indicator analysis indicates a sustained upward cycle in the short-term, intraday, and medium-term periods.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 18, 2024







If the leading U.S. media were assuring the inevitability of a 50 basis points interest rate cut on Monday, yesterday, it seemed everyone had forgotten about those reports. The same outlets casually began talking about a 25 bps cut instead. This, of course, had its effect and even allowed the dollar to start strengthening from the opening of the U.S. trading session. But in reality, it no longer matters much how big today's interest rate cut will be. The dollar has been losing ground since spring when talks about the upcoming monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve began to intensify. The market has already priced in one or two cuts—those very 50 bps. Of course, the fact that this is the first rate cut in several years will impress the markets, and the dollar will weaken for some time. But the scale of its decline will still be minor. What's far more important is what Fed Chair Jerome Powell will say. But, based on his previous speeches, he will most likely stick to ritualistic phrases, essentially saying that future interest rate decisions will consider macroeconomic dynamics. In other words, the head of the Fed is unlikely to say anything concrete. Therefore, the market will eventually return its focus to the interest rate disparity, which has recently shifted significantly in favor of the dollar. It's quite possible that once the initial emotions subside, the dollar will start to strengthen. This process could take several months.



During its upward momentum, the EUR/USD pair nearly reached the local high of September 6, at which point the volume of long positions decreased. As a result, a pullback-stagnation occurred, fitting within the component of the upward cycle. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator exited the overbought zone during the pullback but remained in the bullish area of 50/70. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upward, aligning with the price movement. Expectations and Prospects Price stabilization above the 1.1150 level is necessary for the next growth phase. Under this scenario, a complete recovery from the recent correction and an update to the medium-term trend's high is possible. It's important to note that today, technical analysis takes a backseat, as speculators' primary focus is on the outcome of the Fed meeting. The complex indicator analysis suggests a pullback in the short term, while indicators are geared towards an upward cycle in the intraday and medium-term periods.





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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 19, 2024




For the first time in four years, the Federal Reserve lowered its interest rates by a substantial 50 basis points. This move was driven not only by the steady slowdown in inflation but also by the U.S. central bank's concerns about the potential slide of the economy into a recession. However, what is truly surprising is the market's reaction— the dollar immediately started to rise significantly. The reason lies in the statements made by Jerome Powell. The head of the U.S. central bank promptly warned the markets not to expect the same pace of monetary policy easing to continue. According to him, the Federal Open Market Committee is considering cutting interest rates by another 50 bps by the end of this year, but this will happen gradually. With only two meetings left this year, this means 25 basis points at each meeting. However, everything will depend on macroeconomic dynamics. Given that the pace of inflation will surely slow down, there is a possibility that the central bank might only lower its interest rates once before the start of next year. This is precisely why the dollar began to strengthen, as the markets were expecting a more aggressive monetary policy easing. Today, the focus shifts to the Bank of England, which will likely set the tone for further actions by key central banks. The British central bank is expected to keep its interest rates unchanged. In the context of the Fed starting to lower its rates, such a step by the BoE would provide momentum for the pound to rise. This, in turn, would also pull up the euro via the dollar index.


The EUR/USD pair, driven by a strong flow of news and information, shows increased volatility. During this period, the price almost reached the 1.1200 mark. The upward sentiment remains undeniable despite the previous trading day's closing near the opening level. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the buyers' zone of 50/70, indicating a bullish sentiment. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upward, aligning with the current price movement. Expectations and Prospects For the next stage of growth, price stabilization above 1.1150 is necessary. Under this scenario, it is possible to see an update of the mid-term trend high, located around the 1.1200/1.1280 range. Comprehensive indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods supports a sustained upward trend.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 20, 2024







After the Bank of England kept its interest rates unchanged, investors finally realized that the situation in the market was changing somewhat. The number of votes in favor of lowering the key rate decreased, which means the British central bank put on pause further easing monetary policy. Not long before, the European Central Bank implemented a significant rate cut, indicating that any further reductions would occur in the more distant future. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is just starting its monetary policy easing journey. In other words, only the United States will be lowering interest rates in the near future, while in Europe, they will remain unchanged. This is precisely why the dollar is losing ground, and it seems this process will continue for several months.



The EUR/USD pair has almost fully recovered its value after the recent corrective cycle. Currently, the price is fluctuating around the local high of the upward trend. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the buyers' zone of 50/70, indicating a bullish sentiment. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upward, aligning with the price movement direction. Expectations and Prospects The price's stabilization above 1.1150 reflects a bullish sentiment among market participants. However, buyers still face resistance in the 1.1200/1.1280 area, which represents the peak of the medium-term trend. This area must be overcome to strengthen the current trend; otherwise, it could act as resistance. The complex indicator analysis indicates an upward cycle in the short-term, intraday, and medium-term periods.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on September 23, 2024



On Friday, the euro tried for the third time to test the resistance of the target level of 1.1186 and the upper boundary of the price channel. If this continues, the resistance will eventually fall. Consolidating above this level will open the target of 1.1276. However, this will not yet signal the start of a medium-term rise, as the potential divergence with the Marlin oscillator may still take effect.

Several counter-dollar currencies have already formed such divergence. The euro can reverse without divergence, similar to what happened in November 2022 but in an upward scenario. For this to occur, the Marlin oscillator must consolidate in the downtrend territory, and the price must subsequently consolidate below the MACD line.

On the four-hour chart, Marlin is close to crossing into negative territory. If the price breaks through the support level of 1.1076, it will also mean breaking through the MACD line in this time frame. The situation remains bullish on both timeframes, so we will wait to see how events unfold. The Eurozone September Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will be released today. A slight weakening is expected, with the composite PMI from S&P Global forecasted to drop from 51.0 to 50.6. This upward trend may change.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 24, 2024

The business activity indices in Europe were expected to remain broadly unchanged, while the United States would show a significant decline. However, the outcome was somewhat different. Initially, the composite business activity index in the Eurozone dropped from 51.0 to 48.9. This decline was due to a decrease in the services activity index, from 45.8 to 44.8, and the manufacturing index, from 52.9 to 50.5, despite forecasts predicting an increase to 53.0. These figures immediately strengthened the dollar, which only slowed down after the opening of the US trading session. The composite index of business activity in the United States was expected to decline from 54.6 points to 53.0 points, but it only decreased to 54.4. This was despite the manufacturing index dropping from 47.9 to 47.0, with a forecast of 48.0. The key factor was the services activity index, which, instead of decreasing from 55.7 to 54.0, rose to 55.4. Overall, business activity is declining on both sides of the Atlantic. While this was a complete surprise in Europe, the situation in the United States is somewhat better than expected. The economic calendar is generally empty until the end of the current week. Thus, the only thing the market can rely on is media reports. The market will likely consolidate around the already achieved values if no sensational news arises.

Despite a slight pullback in the euro's exchange rate against the dollar, the quotation remains near the local high of the upward trend. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator has fallen below the 50 midpoint, indicating a retracement. However, this does not mean the sellers have broken the upward cycle. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines have locally changed direction due to the pullback. Expectations and Prospects For the next phase of growth, it is necessary to stabilize the quotation above the 1.1200 mark. In this scenario, there is a high probability of surpassing the high set in July 2023, which is 1.1276. Otherwise, we can expect a range-bound movement around the current values. The complex indicator analysis indicates a retracement in the short-term and intraday periods. The indicators are oriented towards an upward trend in the medium term.


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