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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of GBP/USD on September 25; The Pound Doesn't Care Where or When to Rise







Guess what? The GBP/USD pair continued to move upward on Tuesday. The movement was relatively weak this time, but we also warned about this yesterday. Yes, the market didn't have reasons to sell the dollar and buy the pound this time, but it didn't have them on Monday either. Nevertheless, the British currency also grew on the first trading day of the week. Let's recall that on Monday, the UK published the Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMI) for the services and manufacturing sectors, which turned out to be weaker than expected. Therefore, the pound had every reason to fall by at least 30-40 pips. And it did fall, but what's the point if it eventually rose by 80 pips without any reason? On Tuesday, there was no news from the UK or the US, yet the British currency continued its sluggish growth. Thus, we can draw an unambiguous conclusion – time passes, but the situation in the forex market doesn't change. We've been talking about the illogical upward movement since the beginning of the year because even back then, it was evident that the pound was rising much more frequently than there was positive news from the UK or negative news from the US. It's the end of September, and the pound still rises whenever and wherever it wants. You can endlessly debate that the market is "experiencing a rise in risk sentiment" or that "the market expects a divergence in Federal Reserve and Bank of England rates," but all of this is just an attempt to present wishful thinking as reality. The US dollar has been falling for two consecutive years. If the market is currently pricing in the future divergence between the Fed/BoE rates, why was the pound rising a year ago or even a year and a half ago?



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 26, 2024



If on Tuesday the dollar weakened without any serious reasons, aside from the contrived hype stirred up by the leading American media, then yesterday it strengthened, once again defying common sense. There were no significant macroeconomic data releases, but a 4.7% drop in new home sales certainly can't support strengthening the US currency. Most likely, the market was correcting the imbalances that had arisen the day before, returning to the levels it was on Tuesday morning. In other words, the situation in the market remains unchanged, albeit accompanied by considerable volatility. Today's published data on US GDP is unlikely to have much impact, as it concerns final figures expected to merely confirm the preliminary estimates already factored in by the market. Attention can be paid to the durable goods orders, which might decrease by 0.1%. Given that the market cannot remain motionless, a decline in orders will likely lead to a symbolic weakening of the dollar.

The EUR/USD pair temporarily surpassed the 1.1200 level during market speculation, but market participants could not stabilize the quote above it. As a result, a price pullback occurred, with the pair still trading near the peak of the upward cycle. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator moves around the median level of 50, indicating a price pullback. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average (MA) lines are intertwined, corresponding to a pullback phase. Expectations and Prospects For the next phase of growth, it's necessary to stabilize the quote above the 1.1200 mark throughout the day. In this scenario, the high set in July 2023, which stands at 1.1276, is highly probable to be updated. Otherwise, we can expect fluctuating movement around the current levels. The complex indicator analysis in short-term and intraday periods indicates a pullback.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 27, 2024



After the US dollar's unclear rise on Wednesday, it started losing ground yesterday without any particular reason. Especially since the macroeconomic data in the United States generally matched expectations. The final GDP data confirmed the preliminary estimates, which the market had already factored in. The changes in jobless claims were symbolic and couldn't influence the situation. So, this is simply a matter of a bounce and an attempt to correct the imbalances. Today, even such data won't be published, so logically, the market should consolidate around the achieved levels. However, we shouldn't rule out the high volatility accompanying this process. Nevertheless, in the end, the quotes should settle near the levels at which yesterday's trading ended.

Despite local speculations, the EUR/USD pair is moving within the limits of the peak of the upward cycle, with the 1.1200 level area acting as resistance. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator moves in the buyers' area of 50/70, indicating a prevailing bullish sentiment among market participants. Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average (MA) lines are directed upward, corresponding to the main trend direction. Expectations and Prospects For the next phase of growth, the quote needs to stabilize above the 1.1200 mark throughout the day. In this scenario, the high set in July 2023, which is the 1.1276 level, is highly probable to be updated. Otherwise, we may experience some choppy fluctuations around the current values.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on September 30, 2024



Despite the impressive volatility, the foreign exchange market situation has remained unchanged. Considering the empty macroeconomic calendar, such a scenario seemed the most likely. Most importantly, the beginning of the new trading week is also marked by a lack of statistical data. So, today's scenario might repeat Friday's. However, the week will be eventful, at least due to the release of the US Department of Labor report, but it will only be released on Friday. With each passing day, the calendar will gradually be filled with increasingly significant macroeconomic data. For example, preliminary inflation data for the Eurozone will be published as early as tomorrow.

The EUR/USD currency pair has formed another stagnation around the local high of the upward trend. The 1.1200 level serves as resistance for buyers. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical tool is moving along the 50 median level, which confirms the price stagnation. As for the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines are directed upward, corresponding to the main trend direction. Expectations and Prospects For the next phase of growth, the quote must stabilize above 1.1200 throughout the day. In this scenario, the high set in July 2023, which is 1.1276, is highly probable to be updated. Otherwise, we can expect variable fluctuations around the current values. The complex indicator analysis in short-term and intraday periods indicates a pullback.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on October 1, 2024



Although Jerome Powell repeated his words during the press conference following the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the dollar was actively rising. The head of the Federal Reserve didn't say anything new. However, the strengthening of the dollar began several hours before his speech and essentially ended before it even started. The reason is that other officials from the US central bank also spoke. And their rhetoric has changed somewhat. In particular, Raphael Bostic, who had previously clearly supported another 50 basis points cut in interest rates, suddenly made a reservation that this step would only be justified in case of a sharp deterioration in the labor market situation. This significantly increased the importance of the United States Department of Labor report, which will be published this Friday. However, given that no one expects a sudden spike in unemployment, such statements simultaneously reduced the likelihood of such a substantial interest rate cut. Thus, the strengthening of the US dollar became a logical development. At the same time, there is a high probability that today, the dollar will continue to strengthen its position. This time, the reason will be the preliminary inflation data in the Eurozone, which indicates that consumer price growth may slow down from 2.2% to 1.8%. However, the dollar's growth will be limited because interest rates were already lowered by 60 basis points during the recent European Central Bank meeting. In other words, the ECB has already accounted for the further decline in inflation. Nevertheless, inflation falling below 2.0% still creates preconditions for further monetary policy easing, though not immediately but in the near future.

The EUR/USD currency pair has been moving at the peak of the upward cycle for the fifth consecutive day. The resistance level is 1.1200, below which a price stagnation has formed. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical tool has crossed the median 50 line in a downward trajectory, indicating an increase in the volume of short positions on the euro. As for the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average (MA) lines have changed direction, suggesting price stagnation. Expectations and Prospects It can be assumed that the stagnation serves as a stage of regrouping trading forces, with the bullish sentiment preserved among market participants. In this case, stabilizing the price above the 1.1200 mark during the day could lead to an update of the mid-term trend's high, which is at 1.1276. Otherwise, we expect further fluctuations around the current values. The complex indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods points to a pullback.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on October 2, 2024

The preliminary estimate of euro area inflation showed a slowdown in the growth of consumer prices from 2.2% to 1.8%. Although the data fully matched forecasts, this report marked the beginning of the dollar's strengthening. However, it was primarily driven by U.S. macroeconomic data, particularly the JOLTS report, which showed not only 8.0 million job openings (against a forecast of 7.7 million) but also 3.1 million layoffs, compared to an expected 3.3 million. In other words, the situation in the U.S. labor market is somewhat better than expected. Consequently, the Federal Reserve has no grounds for another 50 basis point rate cut. However, today's ADP report could introduce some adjustments and potentially weaken the dollar. According to forecasts, employment is expected to grow by only 90,000, which is more than twice as low as what is needed to maintain labor market stability at least. Employment data holds much more weight than job openings and layoffs. The dollar may retreat to the levels it held before the release of the preliminary inflation data from the Eurozone.

The stall at the peak of the upward trend ended with an active sell-off of euro positions, leading to the formation of a full-scale correction toward the upper zone of the psychological level of 1.1000/1.1050. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical tool is moving in the lower 30/50 area of the indicator, indicating increased interest in short positions on the market. As for the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines (MA) are pointed downward, corresponding to the ongoing corrective cycle. Expectations and Prospects The speculative momentum favoring dollar positions still prevails in the financial markets. For this reason, a test of the 1.1000 level cannot be ruled out. Further development will depend on how the price behaves around this value. A partial recovery may occur if the volume of short positions on the euro decreases. However, if we see price stabilization below the 1.1000 level, a move toward the lower deviation of 1.0950 is possible.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 3, 2024




Yesterday, the single European currency declined by 22 pips, while the stock market (S&P 500) rose by 0.01%. Overall, stock indices closed mixed, but the VIX index fell by 1.87%, and it still needs to increase by 25.7% to reach its September peak of 23.76. There's no sign of a flight from risk. Even oil prices fell yesterday, and investors were not keen on holding U.S. government bonds in their portfolios.

On the weekly EUR/USD chart, the price has reached strong support — the point where the Kijun-sen line intersects with the 138.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The channels on the Marlin oscillator also create a strong potential reversal point at the intersection of the lower boundaries of both the descending and ascending channels. The divergence formed during the downward movement may reverse. We also see that the price has not yet tested the 200.0% and 238.2% Fibonacci reaction levels at 1.1230 and 1.1350. There are good prospects for the price to correct this oversight. If the price can overcome the 138.2% retracement level (1.1033 – yesterday's low) and consolidate, the downward trend will continue to strengthen.

On the daily chart, the price is close to consolidating below the Kijun-sen line, which requires today's close to be below this line. Marlin is slightly turning upward in the downtrend territory. Considering the situation on the weekly chart, the main events will likely unfold next week.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on October 4, 2024




The dollar is on hold in anticipation of the release of the U.S. Department of Labor report. Moreover, there is increasing speculation that the report's content may be slightly better than forecasts. In particular, based on recent labor market data, there are doubts that the unemployment rate will rise from 4.2% to 4.3%. It is more likely to remain at its current level. Furthermore, it appears that 140,000 new jobs will be created outside of agriculture, rather than the previously predicted 130,000. While this number isn't huge, given the population size and growth rate in the U.S., it is still slightly more than initially expected. This could lead to further strengthening of the U.S. dollar. However, everything will depend on the content of the U.S. Department of Labor report.


The EUR/USD currency pair is in a corrective phase from the resistance level 1.1200. As a result, the price has reached the support level of 1.1000. In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical tool is moving in the sellers' zone of 30/50, indicating the appeal of short positions on the euro. However, oversold conditions are already being observed in shorter-term periods. As for the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average (MA) lines are directed downward, in line with the ongoing corrective cycle. Expectations and Prospects Based on the theory of support around the 1.1000 level, the volume of short positions could decline, potentially leading to a price rebound. If the price stabilizes above 1.1050, a clearer signal for increased long positions on the euro may emerge. However, if the price stabilizes below the 1.1000 level, further declines toward the 1.0900/1.0950 area are possible. The complex indicator analysis for the short-term period points to a price rebound from the 1.1000 level. For the intraday period, the indicators continue to show a bearish sentiment.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Daily Price Movement of EUR/USD Main Currency Pairs, Monday October 07, 2024.




With the appearance of deviations between the price movements of the main currency pair EUR/USD which formed a Higher-High (Double Top) while inversely proportional to the Stochastic Oscillator indicator which actually formed a Higher Low, it gives an indication that in the next few days seller pressure will begin to occur even though a strengthening correction could occur but as long as it does not break above the level of 1.1145, EUR/USD will still remain under pressure and will try to test the level of 1.0943 if this level is successfully broken down, Fiber will try to test the next two targets, namely 1.0829 and 1.0679.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on October 8, 2024


Retail sales in the Eurozone grew by 0.8%, which was only slightly below the forecast of 0.9%. Nevertheless, this is an excellent result after a decline of -0.1%. However, judging by the market's reaction, investors are focused on further strengthening the dollar. Despite the dollar being overbought, no local rebound has occurred, and the market remained stagnant. The formal reason for this was the Eurozone data, which turned out to be slightly worse than expected. But after all, we are talking about sales growth, not a decline. Considering that today's macroeconomic calendar is empty, we will likely see not so much a continuation of the stagnation but rather a slow weakening of the euro.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 09.10.2024



The market seems to be at a standstill, not so much because of the absence of any macroeconomic data but rather due to the anticipation of tomorrow's inflation data release in the United States. Some data has been released, such as crude oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute, which surprised significantly with an increase of 10.9 million barrels. However, these figures rarely substantially impact the market, as they precede the more influential report from the U.S. Department of Energy. Nevertheless, this sharp increase has already led to adjustments in forecasts for today's figures, with investors now expecting a 1.9 million barrel rise in inventories. However, the dollar will wait for the release of inflation data due tomorrow. According to forecasts, the growth rate of consumer prices is likely to slow from 2.5% to 2.3%. Given the dollar's clear overbought status, a slowdown in inflation could be an excellent trigger for a significant correction. However, no one is willing to take risks prematurely, as U.S. data have been full of surprises lately.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 10.10.2024


The dollar continues its triumphant march, even amid talks that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates by fifty basis points again. Today's release of inflation data in the United States fueled these discussions. The growth rate of consumer prices will likely slow from 2.5% to 2.3%, bringing it closer to the target level of 2.0%. However, despite the confident slowdown in inflation, it is doubtful that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will lower the refinancing rate by fifty basis points at its next meeting. After all, inflation is just one of the key indicators. Another is the labor market. Based on recent data, unemployment has once again declined, which supports the case for maintaining higher interest rates. It's clear that the U.S. central bank won't tighten its monetary policy further, but a large-scale easing is also not on the table. Nonetheless, the dollar is overbought, and the market needs at least a local correction. Thus, a slowdown in inflation could be an excellent reason for a correction.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on October 11, 2024



Yesterday's moderately pessimistic news from the U.S. unsettled the euro, causing it to fluctuate within a daily range of 55 points and close the day with a loss of only 4 points. The number of unemployment benefit claimants increased by 42,000 over the week, casting doubts on the strong employment data from last Friday. The core CPI rose in September from 3.2% to 3.3% year-on-year, while the overall CPI fell from 2.5% to 2.4%, against an expectation of 2.3%. Naturally, the potential ECB rate cut next week is also adding pressure. However, the dollar's balance remains uncertain due to tensions in the Middle East and the simultaneous easing of monetary policy by both the ECB and the Federal Reserve. Considering the ongoing strong growth in the stock and commodity markets, the euro could potentially begin to strengthen ahead of the ECB meeting, as it seeks this balance. Since the start of the week, the euro has only declined by 38 points, clearly indicating its reluctance to fall further.

On the daily chart, the price has consolidated below the 1.0950 level. The long lower shadow indicates that another attempt to reach 1.0882 is unlikely. Even if the euro is declining from the 1.1185 level, this entire movement appears as indecisive trading driven by geopolitical factors. It is likely to end with the price breaking above the 1.1010 level. A breakthrough above 1.1076, along with the MACD line, would signal the euro's return to medium-term growth.

On the four-hour chart, the price's convergence with the oscillator has evolved. The Marlin oscillator is in positive territory but has not yet exited the consolidation range. The reversal is still in progress. Here, the price needs to break above the 1.1010 level to also overcome the resistance of the MACD line. We continue to wait.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for October 14, 2024



The new economic measures announced by the Chinese government on Saturday did not meet investors' expectations. Essentially, it was only a statement of intent, with plans for gradual implementation, especially in the real estate sector and local governments. Nevertheless, Asian markets are up today, continuing Friday's optimism (S&P 500 up by 0.61%).

Tomorrow, data on industrial production in the Eurozone (1.8% for August) and ZEW indices, which are also expected to show strong growth dynamics, will be released. We expect the price to break above the 1.0950 resistance level.

On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is fluctuating near the zero line, and the price is under pressure from the indicator lines. The price needs to consolidate above the 1.0950 level before encountering the MACD line; otherwise, the euro could decline below 1.0882.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for October 15, 2024



The euro stubbornly refuses to reverse direction. Even yesterday's 0.77% rise in the stock market, which set a new all-time high, did not halt the euro's decline. The euro is close to consolidating below the 1.0882 level and collapsing to 1.0777. If this happens, the long-term reversal to a downtrend would have already begun with a turn from 1.1186 in a dull and uneventful manner, without triggering the liquidation of large sell orders (reportedly the largest volumes since April).

This scenario became highly probable this morning due to the proximity of the price to the key level. Additionally, the S&P 500 reached its anticipated reversal target, and oil prices dropped by 3.45% yesterday. Now, we doubt the euro will find the strength, or investors' will, to support the single currency against the ECB's rate cut. If the euro does rise, it is unlikely to go above 1.1010, with the best-case scenario being a move to 1.1076 for a retest of the MACD line. Today, European industrial production data and ZEW business sentiment indexes might provide some support for the euro

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