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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast on EUR/USD from 16.10.2024



It was initially expected that the rate of decline in industrial production in the eurozone would slow from -2.2% to -1.0%, but the decline was replaced by growth of 0.1%. Moreover, previous data was revised upward to -2.1%. The situation in the eurozone's industrial sector was much better than anticipated. Nevertheless, no correction occurred in the currency market. The dollar continued to rise, although the scale of its growth was merely symbolic. The market's behavior seems strange unless we consider the upcoming ECB board meeting. A month and a half ago, the ECB cut the refinancing rate from 4.25% to 3.65%, and after such a significant easing of monetary policy, everyone was confident that interest rates would remain unchanged for the rest of the year. However, at the beginning of this week, rumors started circulating that the ECB might cut the refinancing rate by another 25 basis points—possibly as soon as this Thursday. This is particularly suggested by inflation, which continues to decline steadily. And indeed, on Thursday, the final inflation data will be published, which should confirm this assumption. Thus, the strong industrial production data supported the euro, preventing it from weakening further. Today, the macroeconomic calendar is nearly empty, and the market will likely consolidate around current levels. Ahead of significant events such as the ECB board meeting and the release of inflation data in the eurozone, few will be willing to take major risks.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast on EUR/USD From 17.10.2024

The market seems to no longer doubt that the European Central Bank will again lower the refinancing rate today—by another 25 basis points, from 3.65% to 3.40%. This decision is already being priced into the value of the euro, which has significantly depreciated recently, and there's no doubt that it's oversold. Therefore, even after the ECB announces its decision, there's no need to expect a noticeable weakening of the euro. Given the market's apparent need for at least a local correction, it's likely that soon after the ECB's governing council meeting, we will see the euro rise. This is especially likely if Christine Lagarde announces that inflation targets have been met, meaning that further monetary policy easing is not expected. Such a scenario is quite possible, as preliminary inflation data suggests that the rate of consumer price growth has slowed from 2.2% to 1.8%. The final inflation figures are expected to be published just before the meeting, which should confirm the preliminary estimates.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 18.10.2024

As expected, the European Central Bank lowered the refinancing rate by 25 basis points. However, the central bank managed to deliver a surprise. Over the last three months, the ECB has reduced interest rates by a total of 85 basis points, while inflation has slowed to 1.7%. This was, incidentally, below the preliminary estimate of 1.8%. Against this backdrop, a pause in further monetary easing seemed logical, at the very least. Instead, Christine Lagarde announced yesterday that there would be another rate cut as soon as December of this year by an additional 25 basis points. This development was a complete surprise to investors, and the single European currency continued to lose ground. However, the euro weakening could have been much more significant if it had not been for the U.S. macroeconomic data. Specifically, the growth rate of retail sales in the United States slowed from 2.2% to 1.7%, which, however, turned out to be slightly better than the forecast of 1.6%. On the other hand, the decline in industrial production accelerated from -0.2% to -0.6%, whereas a 0.4% growth had been expected. In other words, the U.S. data provided some support for the euro. In any case, the dollar's overbought condition has worsened even further, and the market will clearly latch onto any minor reason to initiate at least a local correction. However, today's macroeconomic calendar is generally empty. Perhaps the media will provide a reason. The market will likely consolidate around current levels if there are no significant events.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD Technical Analysis for October 21



Higher Time Frames Last week, the bears tested the weekly cloud (1.0862 – 1.0811), but the week ended with only a long lower shadow. The market closed the week above the weekly cloud, so testing these levels will continue. The bears' immediate plans still include breaking through the cloud (1.0862 – 1.0811) and forming a weekly downward target. Meanwhile, the bulls will be aided by the momentum that led to the emergence of an upward correction at the end of last week. This correction's immediate target is the daily short-term trend (1.0897). The next focus will be on the monthly time frame resistances at 1.0912-08 (monthly short-term trend and lower boundary of the monthly cloud) and 1.0932 (weekly medium-term trend).

H4 – H1 The bears still maintain their advantage in the lower time frames, but the pair has risen to the key levels at 1.0855 (central Pivot point of the day) – 1.0874 (weekly long-term trend). Consolidation above this trend and its reversal could shift the balance of power in favor of the bulls. The following targets for upward movement during the day would be the resistances of the classic Pivot points (1.0883 – 1.0899 – 1.0927). If bearish activity resumes and the decline continues, the market's focus will shift to breaking through the supports of the classic Pivot points (1.0839 – 1.0811 – 1.0795).

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 10/22/2024

The anticipated correction for the dollar remains unfulfilled, as the modest signs of its beginning led nowhere. The dollar began to grow actively again. The reason behind this development is a series of statements from Federal Reserve representatives suggesting that there is no need to maintain the current pace of rate cuts. Instead, they even hinted at possibly slowing down the cuts, suggesting a potential pause. This means that by the end of the year, the U.S. central bank might lower rates only once rather than twice as previously anticipated. Not surprisingly, this has fueled the dollar's upward movement. Today, it's the turn of the European Central Bank (ECB) representatives to make statements regarding monetary policy. There's a high chance that the euro might see a rebound, potentially marking the start of the much-anticipated correction. Over the past three months, the ECB has cut the refinancing rate by a total of 85 basis points—a significant reduction. Many expected that the recent ECB Governing Council meeting would not change the rates, which seemed quite reasonable. After such active monetary easing and a drop in inflation below 2.0%, the ECB might opt to pause and observe further developments. This situation could lead to a scenario where, even if the Fed slows its pace of monetary easing, it continues to lower interest rates while the ECB at least takes a short pause, keeping rates steady. This would be enough for the euro to strengthen. Thus, the second attempt at a correction could be successful.


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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 10/23/2024



Although the refinancing rate in the eurozone has been cut by eighty-five basis points over the past three months, the European Central Bank has no plans to slow the pace of its monetary policy easing. Christine Lagarde essentially stated this directly. However, this did not lead to a significant weakening of the single European currency. The scale of the dollar's strengthening has been purely symbolic, mainly because the dollar is already excessively overbought. Moreover, the European Central Bank head made similar statements during the press conference following the last meeting of the European Central Bank's board. So, she didn't provide any fundamentally new information. Nonetheless, the dollar's overbought condition remains. On the contrary, it has slightly intensified. However, the market cannot grasp anything to implement the much-needed correction. Given that today's macroeconomic calendar is almost empty, at best, we may see only a symbolic weakening of the US dollar.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD on October 24 – Technical Analysis Overview


EUR/USD



Bearish players continue to operate below the weekly Ichimoku cloud (1.0811), extending the downtrend. The following bearish targets in this chart section are the daily cloud breakout target (1.0710 – 1.0654) and the monthly support level (1.0611). Bullish players need to rise and consolidate above the weekly cloud (1.0811 – 1.0864) to gain new opportunities and prospects in the current situation, with support from the daily short-term trend (1.0850).

GBP/USD



Yesterday, bearish players left the daily Ichimoku cloud (1.2965) and secured a position below the weekly medium-term trend (1.2939). These levels and the daily short-term trend (1.3003) are currently the nearest targets for bullish players, should they decide to regain their positions and take the initiative. Meanwhile, for the development of the decline and the strengthening of bearish sentiment, the first area of support is at 1.2797 – 1.2864, encompassing the monthly cloud, monthly short-term trend, and the final level of the weekly golden cross of the Ichimoku.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on October 25, 2024



The excessive overbought condition of the dollar has indeed impacted the market, as the single European currency managed to show some growth despite the preliminary estimates of business activity indexes. The composite business activity index in the Eurozone rose from 49.6 to 49.7 points, although the forecast was for 50.1 points. This outcome was due to the services activity index, which fell from 51.4 to 51.2 points, whereas an increase to 51.7 points was expected. However, some support came from the manufacturing activity index, which increased from 45.0 to 45.9 points, exceeding the anticipated rise to 45.2 points. More notable is that the single currency demonstrated slight but consistent growth, even in the face of similar data from the United States, which exceeded forecasts. Specifically, the manufacturing activity index in the U.S. rose from 47.3 to 47.8 points instead of the expected increase of 47.6 points. The services activity index, expected to decline from 55.2 to 55.0 points, actually grew to 55.3 points. As a result, the composite activity index climbed from 54.0 to 54.3 points despite predictions that it would remain unchanged. Thus, market behavior indicates that the potential for dollar growth is exhausted, at least for now. The dollar's overbought condition has remained, so expecting a sustained rise in the euro seems reasonable.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GOLD – Technical Analysis



Last week, gold rose to challenge the psychological level of 2750.00. After stalling at this resistance, it continued to test this level throughout the week, setting a new all-time high at 2757.96. If the upward momentum continues, gold could reach new heights. All target levels indicated by the Ichimoku indicator have already been achieved, so the focus can now shift to psychological "round" levels, which historically have proven significant. The following levels are 2800.00, 2850.00, 2900.00, and so on. In a downward correction, the daily Ichimoku cross will receive initial support. On Monday, these support levels are at 2708.10 (Tenkan) and 2680.45 (Kijun). If bearish players actively push lower and quickly break the daily golden cross, their attention will likely shift to weekly Ichimoku support levels. The nearest level from the weekly cross is the short-term trend at 2614.68. If the downward correction is prolonged, the weekly levels will rise closer to the daily cross, providing additional support for bullish interests.



H4 – H1 In lower time frames, the uncertainty seen in higher time frames has led to a lack of clear, decisive movement. However, the advantage still leans towards bullish players. Currently, gold is trading above the weekly long-term trend at 2731.80. Any further rise will need to overcome the resistance of the classic Pivot Points, which provide good intraday guidance. Losing support from the weekly long-term trend at 2731.80 would shift the balance of power, drawing market attention to bearish targets at the support levels of the classic Pivot Points. It's essential to note that the values of these Pivot Points will update upon market opening.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 29.10.2024

Recently, the euro has fluctuated upward, often without any specific reason. It's clearly largely oscillating around the 1.08 mark, with movements merely representing minor deviations from this level. Given that this week is sparse on macroeconomic data, this situation will likely continue until Friday. Additionally, with the U.S. presidential elections set for next Tuesday, the uncertainty intensifies, as the outcome remains highly unpredictable and the media portray the two candidates as complete opposites. In other words, the atmosphere is tense, and few are willing to take risks in such a setting. Therefore, this stagnation may well extend into the middle of next week.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 30.10.2024



The euro has been treading water for an entire week. However, today, it might be able to strengthen its position against the dollar and potentially reduce its current oversold state. This potential boost could come from the preliminary Eurozone GDP data for Q3, precisely the initial estimate, which tends to have the most impact. According to forecasts, Eurozone economic growth is expected to accelerate from 0.6% to 1.0%. This is a fairly positive outcome, given the significant concerns about the prospects of the European economy. As a result, the euro could gain a considerable boost in optimism and strengthen its position noticeably. Moreover, according to forecasts, similar data from the United States is expected to show stable growth rates. Although growth rates in Europe are lower, the mere improvement in dynamics is a positive factor.



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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD Technical Analysis for October 31

EUR/USD



Higher Time Frames Yesterday, the bulls climbed above the daily short-term trend (1.0817) but couldn't break through the weekly resistances (1.0844 – 1.0863 – 1.0876) on the first attempt, leaving this task still relevant. Today marks the end of the month. October has been dominated by bearish sentiment, and the focus now is on the length of the lower shadow of the monthly candle and whether the bears can close the month as optimistically as possible.



H4 – H1 In the lower time frames, the bulls currently hold the advantage. They may soon leave the H4 cloud and form an upward target for breaking through it. As a result, additional targets in the form of classic Pivot levels (1.0884 – 1.0909 – 1.0947) will be added to the H4 targets during the day. If the bears gain control, the most crucial target for corrective decline would be the weekly long-term trend (1.0819). A breakthrough and reversal of this trend could shift the current balance of power. The following downside targets during the day will be the support levels of classic Pivots levels (1.0783 – 1.0758). GBP/USD

H4 – H1 On the lower time frames, the market has recently been hovering around the key levels of 1.2980 – 1.2975 (central Pivot point of the day + weekly long-term trend), which are currently horizontal, supporting uncertainty. Breaking out of this zone and strengthening the direction of either side will lead to a decisive movement. For the bulls, targets would be the classic Pivot resistance levels (1.3023 – 1.3086 – 1.3129), while for the bears, they would be the support levels (1.2917 – 1.2874 – 1.2811).

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: GOLD – Technical Analysis



On Friday, the weekly result was marked by an uncertainty candle with an extended upper shadow. It is possible that the bears found a good spot for a corrective decline, as the bulls failed to reach 2800.00 and closed October below the psychological level of 2750.00, which had been actively tested throughout the second half of the month. It should be noted that the bears secured support from the daily short-term trend (2748.92), which is now defending their interests. If a decline develops, the primary task for the bears at this section of the chart will be to test, break, and eliminate the daily golden cross, which currently can be marked at levels 2718.28 – 2696.24 – 2674.21. For the bulls, the nearest prospects maintain their relevance and position. New bullish opportunities may arise only after the 2750.00 level is broken and the resistance zone 2800.00 is tested and overcome.



H4 – H1 On the lower time frames, the pair tested the weekly long-term trend (2756.36) from below on Friday, with the bears managing to defend their advantage and remain below the trend. Soon, it will be necessary for the bears to break through the H4 cloud, exit, and secure a position in the bearish zone relative to the cloud. If the cloud break is realized, additional downward targets on the lower timeframes, including the supports of the classic Pivot levels, will be added with the newly formed target for the H4 cloud breakout. If the bulls use the cloud's support and push off from it, simultaneously gaining the weekly long-term trend, then the intraday market focus will shift to the resistances of the classic Pivot levels. On the higher time frames, bulls will again aim to conquer 2750.00 and reach 2800.00. Updated classic Pivot level values for guidance will appear when trading opens at the start of the new workweek.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD and GBP/USD on November 5 – Technical Analysis



Higher Time Frames Yesterday, the monthly short-term trend resistance (1.0909) was tested. Despite the significant upward gap at the opening and the bulls' persistence, the outcome is recorded as a long upper shadow on the daily candle. It may take considerable effort from the bulls to overcome this monthly resistance (1.0909) and push into the bullish zone relative to the bearish monthly Ichimoku cloud (1.0943). The cluster of weekly levels (1.0876, 1.0863, 1.0844) and the daily short-term trend (1.0842) maintain a gravitational pull on the current development, providing some support for the bulls. For bears to assert their stance, they must break free from this zone and move significantly lower.

H4 – H1 The pair is in a corrective zone on the lower time frames, staying above the weekly long-term trend (1.0858), giving bulls the main advantage. Today's upward targets within the day are the classic Pivot resistance levels (1.0908, 1.0939, 1.0963) and the target for breaking through the H4 cloud (1.0921, 1.0939). Breaking and reversing the trend (1.0858) would create conditions to shift the current balance of power. The downward targets within the day are the classic Pivot support levels (1.0853, 1.0829, 1.0798).


GBP/USD



Higher Time Frames The upward gap pushed the pair into the influence of two key levels. The bulls found support from the daily short-term trend (1.2942), preventing the gap from closing, while the bears relied on the weekly medium-term trend resistance (1.2971), which halted the bulls from achieving higher targets. Today's development still depends on these two levels; whoever breaks through the opposing level will likely dictate the direction.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/USD: What Does Trump's Victory Mean for the Australian Dollar?



Today, the AUD/USD pair dropped to a multi-month low amid a rally in the US dollar triggered by Trump's victory.

The sharp intraday decline of over 130 points was driven by strong demand for the US dollar. The USD index surged to a four-month high after exit polls from the US presidential election indicated that Republican candidate Donald Trump was leading the race. Additionally, Republicans are expected to secure a majority in the House of Representatives. In addition to these factors, Trump's presidency raises concerns about the introduction of new tariffs and a potential trade war with China, further pressuring the Australian dollar. Concerns about deficit spending and expectations of less aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts are driving US Treasury yields higher. This has strengthened the US dollar and added further pressure on the AUD/USD pair. However, the risk-on sentiment, as evidenced by the sharp rise in US stock futures, has led to some profit-taking on the US dollar. Furthermore, the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and signs that China's large-scale stimulus measures are boosting business activity are limiting losses for the Australian dollar, prompting intraday short-covering in the AUD/USD pair. Still, there is no certainty that current spot prices can build momentum or that the attempted recovery will be seen as more than a selling opportunity, given the prevailing bullish sentiment for the US dollar. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the AUD/USD pair has formed a short-term bottom. This cautious outlook is supported by daily chart oscillators, which remain in negative territory, reinforcing the bearish forecast for now.


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