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Post by instaforexgertrude on Aug 14, 2017 1:35:29 GMT -5
US dollar: a massive reassessment of risk is comingThe US dollar, which briskly started the week, lost all of its trump cards and was again sold out on Friday amid muffled data on inflation. Consumer prices rose by 0.1% in July, an annual increase of 1.7%. Both indicators are better than a month ago, but worse than expected. Experts forecasted prices to rise by 0.2% in the monthly data and 1.8% in the annual data.  Yesterday, the producer prices report was published. It also turned out to be worse than expected. The annual price index rose by 1.9% which is worse than the 2.0% results from the previous month. It is even much worse than the expectation of 2.2%. Compared to the results from June, prices have dropped by 0.1%. The worse-than-expected data indicates that there is still a significant imbalance in the market between estimates of the state of the US economy and real macroeconomic indicators. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, said on Friday that the US Federal Reserve can wait in increasing interest rates until inflation approaches the target of 2%. Kashkari drew attention the fact that the wage growth remains slow and a premature rate increase may lead to a slowdown in economic growth. In fact, over the past week, the probability of a rate hike in December, according to the CME, fell from 48% to 35.9%. The expectations of this next step by the Fed moved to June 2018. The shift of expectations for six months is a lot. In fact, bulls in dollars are deprived reasons to go on the offensive in the foreseeable future.  Another factor of the weakness of the dollar was the geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula. US President Donald Trump warned Pyongyang against attacks on Guam, where the US military base is located or on US allies. The markets began to respond to the verbal war, but the probability of a military solution to the issue at the moment is extremely small. The probability of a strike against North Korea will cause Russia to be extremely displeased with China and will promote an even closer rapprochement which clearly does not meet the long-term interests of the United States. A noticeable increase in the degree of tension is not accidental and quite possibly intended to hide something more substantial than Pyongyang's nuclear program. On Thursday, the Treasury report on the budget was published despite the annual dynamics for 17 months. Revenue growth cannot compensate for the decline of the previous period and ensure the fulfillment of government obligations. Perhaps Trump's formidable rhetoric about North Korea is of an intra-American nature. Trump tries to score points before a large-scale battle with the Congress on a number of crucial issues. Hour X is approaching, the government must submit a draft budget for the 2018 financial year. In any case, it is impossible to balance falling incomes with expenditures without raising the ceiling of borrowing. Moreover, the formation of budget is meaningless without the approval of a tax reform, the project of which has not yet been submitted to the Congress. Perhaps Trump's administration will try to combine these two issues into one. The markets expect active government action in the near future. On Tuesday, data on retail sales and import and export prices will be published in July. Forecasts are moderately positive. If the released data is no worse than expectations, it can stop the decline in the dollar. On Wednesday, the market's attention will be focused on the publication of the protocol of the July FOMC meeting. Players will assess the likelihood of the start of a quantitative tightening program in September. In any case, there are more questions than answers. The dollar cannot rely on either economic growth or geopolitical stability. While there is advantage over defensive assets, primarily for yen and gold, there is a high probability that this mood will continue for the upcoming week. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Aug 15, 2017 0:33:59 GMT -5
AUD/JPY reversing nicely below our selling area, remain bearish  The price dropped really nicely from our selling area yesterday. We remain bearish looking to sell below strong resistance at 86.57 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension) for a corrective drop towards 85.42 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support). Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance at 91% and also intermediate resistance at 64%. Correlation analysis: We're seeing JPY strength with drops on AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and USD/JPY. Sell below 86.57. Stop loss is at 85.42. Take profit is at 87.17. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Aug 16, 2017 0:50:41 GMT -5
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 16, 2017 When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Flash GDP q/q and Italian Prelim GDP q/q. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as FOMC Meeting Minutes, Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, and Building Permits, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1796. Strong Resistance:1.1789. Original Resistance: 1.1778. Inner Sell Area: 1.1767. Target Inner Area: 1.1739. Inner Buy Area: 1.1711. Original Support: 1.1700. Strong Support: 1.1689. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1682. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Aug 17, 2017 0:53:26 GMT -5
AUD/JPY testing major resistance, remain bearish The price is testing major resistance at 87.39 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, Fibonacci extension) and we expect to see a reaction from this level for a drop to at least 86.32 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support). Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 96% where we expect to see a corresponding reaction in price from. Correlation analysis: We're seeing JPY strength with drops on AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and USD/JPY. Sell below 87.39. Stop loss is at 88.08. Take profit is at 86.32. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Aug 18, 2017 0:58:32 GMT -5
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 18, 2017 When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Current Account and German PPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1771. Strong Resistance:1.1764. Original Resistance: 1.1753. Inner Sell Area: 1.1742. Target Inner Area: 1.1714. Inner Buy Area: 1.1686. Original Support: 1.1675. Strong Support: 1.1664. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1657. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Aug 22, 2017 0:19:31 GMT -5
The market is waiting for news The absence of important fundamental statistics from both the US and the euro zone is forcing investors to take on a wait-and-see attitude. This is forming the side channels of the markets, especially in pairs with the euro and the British pound in it. This week, all attention of traders will be directed towards the two-day symposium of the Fed which will begin on August 24. It is expected that the main figure will be the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi. It is believed that Draghi will shed light on the further actions of the bank in relation to its bond purchasing program. It should be noted that it was at the same conference in 2014 that Mario Draghi justified the need to start the quantitative easing program in the euro area. He also announced the measures to be taken in order to increase inflation. It is therefore possible that Draghi, speaking at the Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, will also announce the reduction of the mentioned program above. If the ECB president does not touch upon this topic during his speech, the attention of investors will switch to the meeting in September. Here, it is expected that the European Central Bank may announce the reduction of the quantitative easing program. As several leading world economists suggest, this can be done in two stages. In September, the ECB will announce the official reduction of the program. In October, concrete steps to carry this out will be announced. As for the fundamental data, here are the happenings. At the end of last week, it became known that the surplus of the euro zone's current account for the balance of payments for the month of June fell. This is bad news for the European Central Bank. Thus, the current account surplus of the euro area's balance of payments totaled to 21.2 billion euros following the data of 30.5 billion euros last May. The positive balance of trade in goods rose to 27.4 billion euros while the positive balance of trade in services fell to 2.2 billion euros. There was a temporary support for the US dollar at the end of last week caused by the data on the indicator of consumer sentiment in the US. The data showed an increase for the first half of August. According to the data provided, the preliminary index of consumer sentiment in August 2017 rose to 97.6 points against 93.4 points in July. Economists predicted that the preliminary index in August will be 94.5 points. The Canadian dollar rose sharply against the US dollar, continuing its trend that was formed in the middle of the week. Demand remained after the publication of good inflation data which grew for the month of July this year in Canada. According to the report, Canada's consumer price index in July 2017 increased by 1.2% compared to the same period last year. Core inflation in July rose to 1.5% against 1.4% in June. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Aug 23, 2017 0:29:58 GMT -5
Brent says goodbye to summerFutures prices for the North Sea Fort continue to consolidate in the range of $50-54 per barrel amid uncertainty about further dynamics of global oil reserves. On one hand, the information from PetroLogistics about the reduction of OPEC production volume by 419,000 bpd in August and the decrease in the cartel's exports by 750,000 bpd, as well as the continuing peak of US stocks give grounds to assert that the ball in the market. The "bulls" rule, on the other hand, shows that investors greatly think about the question: what will happen when the summer is over? From the level of the March highs, black gold reserves in the USA decreased by 13%, to 466 million barrels. Nevertheless, US production has risen to a level of 9.5 million b/d, the highest since July 2015. But there is a decrease in rigs by 5 per week indicated by signals on August 18, showing a gradual slowdown in the growth rate of the indicator in the future. These processes are seasonal in nature and are associated with the dynamic activity of car enthusiasts, which increases the demand for gasoline. The question is that when the car season is over, will this become the basis for the growth of stocks? If so, the gains of the bulls on Brent and WTI may be in the past. The dynamics of US oil reserves and quotations WTI  Source: Bloomberg. OPEC has the same scenario as mentioned above, although, with regard to the cartel, it is necessary to talk about other time horizons. The agreement to cut production by 1.8 million bpd will end in March 2018, and now it is untimely to talk about its prolongation in November, which is accomplished by Kuwait's oil minister Essam al-Marzouq . Perhaps, he is trying to create a new growth driver for black gold, but it is expected to be done after the due date. Meanwhile, investors' attention is focused on the dynamics of US stocks and production. According to the forecasts of Bloomberg experts, the first indicator will continue to decline by -3.5 million barrels. However, as noted above, the efficiency of the seasonal factor captured the minds of participants in market battles. Uncertainty and speculation in conditions when some players are on vacation, which allows us to talk about the thin market and lead to sharp movements of prices in different directions. So, the data from the CFTC stating that speculators cut the net-long by WTI for the second week in a row (-5 688, or 2% of the net long position in 274,441 contracts) became the reason for sharp oil sales. In favor of consolidation development, the stabilization of the US dollar price also speaks. It crosses below the turning point of strong macroeconomic statistics and political risks. So far, further movement seems directionless. Technically, the breakthrough of the upper border of the inner bar near the $53 mark per barrel will increase the risks of continuing the northern Brent march in the upstream trading channel. On the contrary, the return of prices to the lower border of the domestic bar at $51.3, with the successful consecutive tests on the diagonal support, is expected for a development of correction in the direction of at least $50 per barrel. Brent Daily Chart  Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Aug 23, 2017 23:54:10 GMT -5
NZD/USD profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy for a corrective bounce The price has dropped absolutely perfectly and has reached our profit target. We prepare to buy above major support at 0.7202 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) for a bounce up to at least 0.7331 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance). Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major support above 3.3% where we expect a further bounce from. Buy above 0.7202. Stop loss is at 0.7153. Take profit is at 0.7331. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Aug 25, 2017 1:23:14 GMT -5
EUR/JPY remain bearish for a further drop The price continues to rise and we're now seeing major resistance at 129.40 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance, Fibonacci extension) where we expect a strong reaction from to fuel the drop to at least 127.56 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support). Stochastic (34,5,3) is once against testing our 93% resistance level where we expect a drop from. Sell below 129.40. Stop loss is at 129.86. Take profit is at 127.56. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Aug 29, 2017 0:59:18 GMT -5
Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Aug 29, 2017 In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Core CPI y/y, Unemployment Rate, Household Spending y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as CB Consumer Confidence and S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3: 109.34. Resistance. 2: 109.13. Resistance. 1: 108.91. Support. 1: 108.66. Support. 2: 108.44. Support. 3: 108.23. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Aug 30, 2017 0:50:52 GMT -5
AUD/USD bounced perfectly above our buying area and reached our profit target. Prepare to sell The price bounced perfectly from our buying area and reached our profit target. We prepare to sell below 0.7979 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, bearish divergence) for a push down to at least 0.7909 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support). Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing bearish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal is impending. Sell below 0.7979. Stop loss is at 0.8003. Take profit is at 0.7909. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Aug 31, 2017 0:33:00 GMT -5
The Euro continued its correctionThe euro did not take advantage of the chance to rise against the US dollar after the release of good data on inflation in Germany and the index of sentiment in the euro area economy. According to the report of the statistics agency, the consumer price index harmonized in accordance with the EU standards in Germany increased by 1.8% in August this year compared to the same period in 2016, while economists expected growth of only 1.7%. Compared to July, inflation increased by 0.1%, fully coinciding with the forecast. As a rule, low prices for energy carriers continue to create the main problem. Despite the fact that all values are still preliminary, traders were disappointed by the rather weak indicators and core inflation. However, there are also positive moments. According to the report, the growth of salaries in Germany sharply accelerated in the second quarter of this year. So, in comparison with the second quarter of 2016, salaries increased by 3.8%. From this, we can conclude that a sharp drop in the unemployment rate did not seriously affect the wage index, which is a good indicator for the economy. Data on sentiment in the euro area economy also supported the euro in the morning. According to the report of the statistical agency, the index of sentiment in the economy of the eurozone in August this year rose to 111.9 points against 111.3 points in July. Economists had expected the index to remain unchanged. The US labor market and the economy are in perfect order, which was reflected in the quotes of the EUR/USD pair, which declined after the report on changes in the number of employees from ADP. The number of jobs in the private sector in the US in August this year increased by 237,000, while economists expected growth of only 185,000 jobs. Data for July were revised upward, to 201,000. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Sept 4, 2017 0:19:53 GMT -5
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Sept 04, 2017 When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as PPI m/m, Sentix Investor Confidence, and Spanish Unemployment Change. Today the US will not release any Economic Data, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1939. Strong Resistance:1.1932. Original Resistance: 1.1921. Inner Sell Area: 1.1910. Target Inner Area: 1.1882. Inner Buy Area: 1.1854. Original Support: 1.1843. Strong Support: 1.1832. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1825. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Sept 5, 2017 0:47:43 GMT -5
Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sept 05, 2017 In Asia, Japan will release the 10-y Bond Auction data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and Factory Orders m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3: 110.09. Resistance. 2: 109.88. Resistance. 1: 109.66. Support. 1: 109.40. Support. 2: 109.19. Support. 3: 108.97. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Sept 6, 2017 0:26:52 GMT -5
NZD/USD testing major resistance, prepare to sell The price is testing major resistance at 0.7261 (Multiple Fibonacci retracements, horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect to see a strong reaction from this level to push the price down to at least 0.7208 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support). Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 92% and we expect a corresponding reaction off this level. Sell below 0.7261. Stop loss is at 0.7301. Take profit is at 0.7208. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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