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Post by instaforexgertrude on Nov 8, 2017 23:50:39 GMT -5
Gold recalled its old tiesThe uncertainty surrounding the tax reform, the growth of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the visit of Donald Trump to Asia allowed the bulls in gold to restrain their opponents who are on the offensive. There were rumors in the market that the start of the transformation of the fiscal system in the US could be postponed for a year due to the fact that the US economy is in good shape. If you add an incentive to this, it will increase the risks of overshooting inflation and a future recession. Given its current position, there is no certainty that the reform will be passed through the Congress: Democrats criticize the bill because of the losses of the middle class, while the number of dissatisfied Republicans is increasing. In general, the revision of the tax system is seen as a "bullish" factor for gold. Therefore, the problems with its implementation allows buyers of the XAU/USD to strike a counterattack. Investors have raised their share of haven assets in portfolios, looking at events in the Middle East. The mass arrests in Saudi Arabia, the attack on Riyadh by rebels from Yemen, the conflict between Turkey and Kurdistan, and the dissatisfaction of Donald Trump with decisions of his predecessors on Iran's nuclear program have pushed up oil and bond prices. The yield of the latter is under pressure, which, due to the existing correlation, has a positive effect on precious metals. Dynamics of gold and yield of US bonds  Source: Trading Economics. An additional factor in supporting gold is U.S. President Donald Trump's tour in Asia. In Japan, Trump has already tickled the nerves of local businessmen, accusing them of non-commercial and non-mutually beneficial trade. In China, the US president raised the issue of ending its economic ties between Beijing and Pyongyang, which certainly provoked North Korea's discontent. Let me remind you that one of the most important drivers of almost 12% of the XAU/USD rally since the beginning of the year have been geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula and the US protectionist policy. At the same time, from the point of view of macroeconomics, the precious metal's situation is not the best. While the euro area and Japan's GDP are growing above the trend, the US economy has been expanding by 3% or more for two consecutive quarters, and is also prepared to increase the rate. In the case of tax reform, investors prefer risky assets. Moreover, global inflation is characterized by sluggish growth. In this scenario, real world market rates have the prerequisites for a movement upwards, which should be considered as a "bearish" factor for XAU/USD. In my opinion, the situation in the Middle East will soon stabilize, and the absence of conflicts with North Korea and the passage of tax reform through the Congress would raise the demand for the US dollar and return the quotes of precious metals futures for a downward short-term trend. A technically successful test of the upper limit of the consolidation range at $1262-1281 per ounce will increase the risks of rising gold prices towards $1,299 and $1,320. On the other hand, a breakthrough of support at $1262 will allow the "bears" to count on the implementation of the targets for 161.8% and 200% for the AB=CD pattern. Gold, daily chart  *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Nov 10, 2017 0:05:58 GMT -5
European Commission report helped the euroThe euro rose against the US dollar after the release of a report from the European Commission, in which the forecasts for GDP growth and lower unemployment were revised in a positive way. In the first half of the day, recent data indicated growth in Germany's foreign trade balance, even despite the decline in exports, as imports decreased even more compared to the previous month. According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics, Germany's exports in September 2017 declined by 0.4% compared to August, while imports fell 1.0%. Germany's foreign trade surplus with revision amounted to 21.8 billion euros against 21.3 billion dollars in the previous month.  On Thursday, the Bank of France released a report, which indicated that the eurozone's second largest economy might grow by 0.5% at the end of this year. Good support by the end of the year can be provided by France's manufacturing sector and the services sector. As I mentioned above, the report of the European Commission was published on Thursday, according to which the eurozone GDP is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2017 against the previous forecast of 1.7%. In 2018, the economy could grow by 2.1% against the previous forecast of 1.8%, and in 2019 predicts the growth of the eurozone's GDP at 1.9%. There are also good moments that can be found in the labor market. Economists expect unemployment in the eurozone in 2017 to drop to the level of 9.1% against the previous forecast of 9.4%. In 2018, the same indicator should decrease to 8.5% against the previous forecast of 8.9%, and in 2019 will drop to the level of 7.9%. According to the European Commission, at present, the eurozone is on track for its fastest economic growth in a decade, while in the labor market there is still a weak wage growth and a significant amount of unused resources. However, everything is not so positive when it comes to inflation. The report was revised for the worse. The European Commission forecasts inflation in the euro area at 1.5% in 2017 against the previous forecast of 1.6%. In 2018, inflation is expected at 1.4% against the previous forecast of 1.3%, and in 2019 the level is set at 1.6%. The sharp growth in the euro in the first half of this year forced economists to revise their forecasts, and the curtailment of the mitigation program and incentive measures could further hurt the inflationary picture, which the European Central Bank pays close attention to. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Nov 16, 2017 1:46:26 GMT -5
Gold emerges from sleep modeThe problems surrounding the tax reform and the related weakness of the US dollar allowed "bulls" for the XAU/USD to go into a counter-attack. Gold enjoys an increased demand for safe-haven during conditions when the risks of correction of the S&P 500 significantly grows. Indeed, the desire of Senate Republicans to connect its plan of repairing the fiscal system with the dismantling of Obamacare, appears to be ideal. To a certain degree, the chances of a compromise plan through Congress before the end of 2017 are extremely low, even though Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin and economic adviser to the President Gary Cohn claim otherwise. Along with the approaching date when the problem of the ceiling of the national debt should be solved, this factor forces investors to get rid of the shares. The tightening of monetary policy and the reduction in the balance sheet of the Fed are "bearish" drivers for the S&P 500, which grew due to hopes of an implementation in the tax reform. Now this prize at the stock index is ready for the taking. As a result, investors flee from risk, which is clearly visible as currencies of developing countries are being sold. I do not think that the panic will last long. The Fed remains committed to an extremely slow normalization, the health of the US economy does not cause concern, and the devaluation of the dollar contributes to improved corporate earnings reports. This is not the best news for the recovery of the precious metal from the "bullish" trend in the US stock market. For more than a month, gold traded in the range of 3.3%, the narrowest since February 2013, while its volatility is at its lowest level in the last 7 years. The yellow metal went into a sleep mode, bulls expect to support short-term drivers of growth, while the medium and long-term outlook for XAU/USD appears "bearish." When central banks move from unconventional to traditional monetary policy, and the global yield of debt markets begins to move away from the area of long-term lows, it is possible to forget about the recovery of the long-term upward trend. Dynamics of the yield of US and gold bonds  Source: Bloomberg. At the same time, record shows that from June 2004 to June 2006, when the federal funds rate increased to 5.25%, gold prices rose 50%. From June 1999 to May 2000, the growth rate to 6.5% allowed the precious metal to add 6% to its value. What's the problem? In my opinion, parallels are unlikely to hold parallels, because the asset reacts sensitively to real rates of the debt market, and in conditions of sluggish inflation, the increase in nominal yield will put pressure on prices. Simply put, reasons must be sought in different CPI growth rates in the 2000s and now. It is highly unlikely that the XAU/USD pair will rise above $1,500 an ounce before the US economy plunges into a new recession. Technically, the release of precious metals beyond the downstream channel increases the risk of an activation of the "Dragon" pattern and the continuation of a downward trend in the direction of $1320 per ounce and above. In order for this scenario to turn into reality, a strike on $1302 is required. Gold, daily chart  *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Nov 21, 2017 1:28:28 GMT -5
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Nov 21, 2017 There is no Economic Data will be released when the European market opens, but the US will release the Economic Data, such as Existing Home Sales, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1801. Strong Resistance:1.1794. Original Resistance: 1.1782. Inner Sell Area: 1.1770. Target Inner Area: 1.1742. Inner Buy Area: 1.1715. Original Support: 1.1703. Strong Support: 1.1691. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1684. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Nov 22, 2017 0:05:18 GMT -5
The growth potential of the pound is limited The British pound declined against the US dollar following the release of a report, which indicated that the UK government in October this year was forced to borrow more money compared to the same period last year. This is directly related to the acceleration of inflation, which led to an increase in the costs of debt servicing. According to the official report of the National Bureau of Statistics, the net borrowing of the UK public sector in October 2017 had amounted to 8 billion British pounds, which is 0.5 billion pounds higher than it was in October of last year. Economists had expected that borrowings would amount to £7.5 billion.  In case the GBPUSD pair drops to catch hold of the resistance at 1.3260, pressure on the British pound would only increase in the near future, which will lead to the renewal of 1.3180 and 1.3140. Data on the balance of foreign trade will positively affect the overall GDP of Switzerland for the 3rd quarter of this year. As noted in the report, the surplus increased due to the weakening of the Swiss franc in October this year, which had a positive impact on the foreign trade balance. Therefore, the positive balance of foreign trade in October 2017 amounted to 2.4 billion francs, while exports grew by 2.3% compared to the same period in 2016. The Australian dollar rose against the US dollar following a speech by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Let me remind you that the morning minutes of the RBA, which were prepared after the last meeting, had a negative impact on the Australian dollar. Philip Lowe said that at the moment there is no special reason to raise interest rates in the near future, and it will be more appropriate to keep rates low for quite a long time. The growth of the Australian dollar could also occur due to the fact that some major players were afraid of hints from the RBA's governor about the possibility of further lowering of rates. However, Lowe said that in case of further improvement in the economic situation, the increase in rates is more likely than its decrease. According to the head of the RBA, in the economy of Australia there are unused capacities, while restrained growth of wages continues to subdue inflation. As for the technical picture of the AUDUSD pair, after going beyond the large support level of 0.7630, the pressure on the Australian dollar increased, which led to the renewal of new large levels of 0.7530 with the formation of the forecast for the exit at 0.7500, where a significant profit taking on short positions will occur. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Nov 23, 2017 0:23:42 GMT -5
The preparation for Brexit allocated 3 billion poundsThe EURUSD pair spent the first half of Wednesday in a narrow lateral channel, while traders were preparing for the release of the Federal Reserve's minutes. Data on the US economy hurt the upward momentum of the US dollar. According to the report, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time has declined. This indicates a recovery of the labor market after the autumn hurricanes. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week from 12 to 18 of November fell by 13,000 and amounted to 239,000. Economists had expected the number of new applications last week to be 240,000. A good report on the labor market was offset by weak data on orders for durable goods in the US, which fell in October, much worse than economists predicted. Such data indicates that Americans are making less expensive purchases, which will negatively affect US manufacturers. According to the US Department of Commerce, orders for durable goods in October 2017 decreased by 1.2% compared to the previous month, amounting to 236 billion US dollars. In September, orders rose by 2.2%. Economists predicted an increase in orders by 0.2%.  As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, only a breakout of the 1.1755-60 range would lead to a larger upward wave in the trading instrument with an update of 1.1800 and a monthly peak output in the area of 1.1860. If the Fed's report contains something interesting about the prospect of tightening monetary policy in December of this year, the demand for the US dollar may rise, which will lead to a return towards the region of large levels of support at 1.1680 and 1.1640. The British pound strengthened its position against the US dollar following the speech of the Ministry of Finance in the UK. Hammond said that the ministry is preparing for any possible outcome of Brexit, and that the preparation allocated 3 billion pounds. Furthermore, the economic forecast was lowered, according to which the GDP of the UK for 2017 will grow by only 1.5%, and not by 2%, as predicted earlier. Forecast GDP growth of 1.4% in 2018 and 1.3% in 2019. As Hammond noted, lowering growth forecasts is due to weak labor productivity. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Nov 24, 2017 0:53:12 GMT -5
Euro does not have enough momentumThe euro returned to the high of the day following the release of upbeat data for Germany and the eurozone as a whole, indicating a resurgence of economic growth in the 3rd quarter of this year. According to the data, Germany's economy in the third quarter of this year has expanded due to growth in exports and investments of companies. The report of the National Bureau of Statistics of Germany Destatis says that the gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2017 increased by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter. Compared to the same period in 2016, GDP grew by 3.3%. Germany's exports in the third quarter grew by 1.7% compared to the previous quarter, while investments increased by 1.5%. The Manufacturing PMI in Germany also increased significantly, reaching 62.5 points, better than the forecasts of economists, who expected growth to reach 60.4 points. The sentiment in the manufacturing sector of France rose in November. According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics of France, Insee, the composite index of purchasing managers in France rose to 60.1 points in November, compared to 57.4 points in October. The Bureau of Statistics also pointed out that the broader indicator of confidence increased by two points in November, to 111 points. The euro zone's purchasing managers index can also provide good support to the European economy, which will lead to an increase in demand for the European currency at the end of the year. According to the research company IHS Markit, the index of supply managers in November 2017 rose to 57.5 points from 56.0 points in October.  Minutes of the ECB did not lead to a new wave of growth in the euro. The report indicates that the ECB management at the meeting in October had differed on the timing of the completion of the quantitative easing program. However, it agreed to assess the impact of the program of buying corporate bonds. It should be noted that the European Central Bank announced that it is extending the program of bond purchasing until September 2018. However, since December of this year, the volume of monthly purchases will be reduced to 30 billion euros from 60 billion euros earlier. As a result of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, market volatility remains low. The technical picture remained without significant changes. Buyers of risky assets are prepared to enter new monthly highs. However, in order for this to happen it is necessary to break through a large resistance of 1.1840, which may lead to an increase in long positions and an update to levels like 1.1880 and 1.1910. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Nov 27, 2017 1:21:17 GMT -5
AUD/USD testing major resistance, time to start sellingThe price is testing major resistance at 0.7629 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, channel resistance, Fibonacci extension) and we expect to see a strong drop from this level to push the price down to at least 0.7537 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support). Stochastic (55,3,1) is seeing strong resistance at 96% where we expect a corresponding reaction off. Correlation analysis: NZDUSD is similarly expecting a strong drop. Sell below 0.7629. Stop loss isat 0.7670. Take profit is at 0.7537  *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Nov 28, 2017 0:39:30 GMT -5
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Nov 28, 2017 When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as German GfK Consumer Climate, Private Loans y/y, M3 Money Supply y/y, and German Import Prices m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Richmond Manufacturing Index, CB Consumer Confidence, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, HPI m/m, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, and Goods Trade Balance, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1962. Strong Resistance:1.1955. Original Resistance: 1.1944. Inner Sell Area: 1.1933. Target Inner Area: 1.1905. Inner Buy Area: 1.1877. Original Support: 1.1866. Strong Support: 1.1855. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1848 *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Nov 29, 2017 1:09:25 GMT -5
Stress tests and forecast for world economic growthThe euro continued to decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, November 28, despite good data on lending to private eurozone companies. According to the report, lending in October rose, indicating the recovery of the eurozone economy. According to the European Central Bank, lending to private sector non-financial companies in October this year had increased by 2.9% compared to the same period last year. Household lending increased by 2.7% compared to the same period of the previous year. The monetary aggregate M3 in October this year increased by 5%.  Data on the optimism of German consumers slightly supported the euro during the afternoon. According to the report of the German institute GfK, the leading index of consumer sentiment remained unchanged in December compared to November and amounted to 10.7 points. Economists had expected that the index would rise to 10.8 points in December. As stated in the report, the sentiments of German households remain at a high level, as well as expectations about the future. On Tuesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development released a report, which raised forecasts for the growth of the world economy for the next year. This happened due to a good rate of growth in the US and the euro area. According to the data, for this year, forecasts have been raised to 2.2% for the US economy and 2.4% for the euro area economy. In 2018, it is expected that the US economy will grow by 2.5%, and the eurozone - by 2.1%. Without any changes, forecasts for the growth of China's economy remained unchanged, but the data for Canada was revised downwards. The OECD expects the world economy to grow by 3.6% this year, while in September it was forecasting an increase of 3.5%. In 2018, world growth should be at the level of 3.7%. The British pound declined after the release of stress tests from the Bank of England. Stress tests of the Bank of England were conducted at Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, Standard Chartered. It must be noted that back in 2016, Barclays and RBS failed stress tests, but then increased their capital. The report shows that the Bank of England decided to raise the requirements for the capital buffer to 1% by the end of 2018 from 0.5% at present. This is done primarily in order to protect the banks of the UK from the adverse effects on the part of Brexit. The Bank of England also said that the current scenario of stress tests implies risks that may be associated with Brexit, and therefore the British banking system will continue to support the economy in the event of an unorganized Brexit. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Dec 3, 2017 23:52:46 GMT -5
The dollar weakens against the backdrop of political threatsAdjusted data on US GDP in the third quarter were better than expected, the growth rate was revised to 3.3%, and by all means, the US economy is recovering successfully. This is despite the fact that the Congress has not yet approved the draft of the tax reform. However, the main factor of positive growth is not so much the growth of the economy as the growing consumer activity. According to the updated data, in the third quarter, the personal consumption expenditure index was 1.4%, and not 1.3%, as previously reported. This was released the day after the data on personal incomes in October also outperformed forecasts, with growth at 0.4% against expectations of 0.3%. The market reacted positively to the reports, while the data on business activity in the manufacturing sector released by ISM on Friday made it possible to revise the forecast for US GDP in the fourth quarter to reach 3.5%, reflecting generally confidently positive expectations. At the same time, it should be noted that the positive dynamics of consumer activity is not due to fundamental changes. The simplest calculations show that the growth of expenses is not based on revenue growth, but on the growth of lending, which in turn reflects certain hopes associated with the future tax reform. The growth of expenses in terms of the potentially able-bodied population is growing steadily, while personal savings are falling and have already reached the pre-crisis level of 10 years ago.  Thus, a certain revival of the consumer sector is associated with hopes for a reduction in tax pressure. If, however, the approval of the reform program in the Congress faces difficulties, then in this case one can expect a sharp decline in consumer activity and an increase in deflationary expectations. The grounds for such fears are: On Friday, the Senate postponed the vote on the tax reform, the stumbling block was the report of the Tax Committee, from which it follows that the reform will not lead to filling the budget and the deficit will remain at the level of at least $1 trillion in a 10-year perspective. The economic analysis of the tax reform plan by the Minister of Finance Mnuchin has not yet been released. Therefore, the financial effect of the reforms may not be the same as the government represents. Before the markets closed on Friday, the final vote in the Congress did not take place, which ultimately contributed to the depreciation of the dollar. Another reason for the fall of the dollar is that former adviser to Donald Trump, Michael Flynn, who was accused earlier of providing false information to the FBI, is prepared to testify against Donald Trump. If this news is confirmed, the opponents of Trump will have good reasons for initiating the impeachment procedure, which will automatically put an end to the tax reform program. This scenario can lead to a rapid reduction in inflation expectations and will call into question the possibility of the Fed to implement the outlined plan for the growth rate in 2018, and the dollar will drop sharply against the yen and the euro. Fears remain hypothetical, but the dollar is losing momentum. On Monday, the dynamics of the dollar will be determined. First of all, by political news related to the passage of the tax plan through the Congress and the development of the situation with Flynn. Acceptance of the tax plan is of fundamental importance in the light of approaching the date of December 8. Namely, before this date, the law on financing state institutions due to borrowing is in force. On Tuesday, the ISM report on business activity in the services sector will be published, after a rapid growth in August-October, a slight slowdown is expected, but the level of PMI will remain high and can support the dollar. In general, the dollar remains the favorite, and any positive news can contribute to a new wave of buying. However, one must assume that the probability of a smooth phased solution of all the issues at the beginning of this week is not very high, and therefore the growth of the euro to 1.20 appears quite certain. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Dec 5, 2017 0:17:33 GMT -5
Pound is selected from the politicsOver the past two weeks, the British pound added 2% versus the US dollar and more than 1% versus the euro, against a background of lower political risks. Popular newspaper, like The Times, reported that London and Brussels managed to agree on the amount of compensation for the divorce, as well as on the issue of the Irish border. It seems like investors are satisfied that Theresa May is paying for a mild Brexit loss of government members. The market will closely follow the phrasing from the table of her talks with Jean-Claude Juncker and Michel Barnier, in order to understand whether it is worth selling due to the fact on initial rumors of buying. Weekly dynamics of the pound  Source: Bloomberg. Positive news from Brexit, the problems of promoting tax reform in the United States, as well as the surfaced story of Russia's interference in the US presidential election, helped the GBP/USD pair to rise to a two-month high. The rate of the sterling, weighted by trade, jumped altogether to a peak record in the last six months. At the same time, some people are concerned that Britain's GDP is growing much slower than its US and European counterparts. Investors win back political risk and are ready to turn a blind eye to the long-term pessimistic prospects of the UK economy in order to obtain immediate benefits. Therefore, Credit Agricole believes that the hopes for progress on Brexit will push the GBP/USD pair to 1.4, near which it traded in the first half of 2016. Commerzbank, on the contrary, is confident that investors are already sold on the factor of positive rhetoric of Brussels at the EU summit in mid-December. If they do not get what they expected, we should prepare for a selling of the sterling. On the other hand, if everything goes according to plan, then it's unlikely that the GBP/USD pair will sharply strengthen. In such circumstances, market attention can shift to macroeconomic data and not related to it, the continuation of the cycle of normalization of the monetary policy of the Bank of England. In this regard, the pound is able to respond sensitively to the release of data on business activity in the services sector, scheduled for December 5. The index of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector has already pleased the fans of sterling. The figures from the largest sector of the economy of the UK is awaited. The alignment of forces in the analyzed pair will be influenced by events in the United States. The Senate passed a tax reform project with 51 votes to 49, but now both chambers of Congress are required to find a compromise on the timing of its implementation and on other issues. The dollar could not benefit from the "bullish" news, as uncertainty persists. At the same time, the willingness of former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn to cooperate with the FBI can cast a shadow on the US president, which will negatively affect the USD index. Technically, updating the November, and then the autumn peak, activates the AB = CD pattern with a target of 127.2%. It corresponds to 1.385. However, we should not rule out a retest of the upper limit of the range of the previous consolidation of 1.304-1.332. GBP/USD, daily chart  Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Dec 6, 2017 0:44:49 GMT -5
Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for December 6, 2017 AUD/USD has been quite corrective recently after a strong bearish pressure pushing the price off the 0.8150 price area. AUD had been quite mixed with the economic reports where negatives are more in quantity than positive reports for which the currency is currently struggling to gain over USD despite the current weak status of USD. Recently AUD Current Account report was published with negative figure of -9.1B from the previous figure of -9.7B though it is less than the previous figure but could not meet the expectation of much less deficit at -8.8B, Retail Sales report was published with an increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.1% which was expected to be at 0.3% and in the Rate Statement the Cash Rate of Australia was unchanged as expected at 1.50% which did not quite helped with the gains of AUD but was able to stop the impulsive bearish pressure in the pair. Today, AUD GDP report was published with a worse value of 0.6% decrease from the previous value of 0.9% which was expected to be at 0.7%. The worse economic report did affect the currency quite well which lead to impulsive bearish pressure today. On the USD side today, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 189k from the previous figure of 235k, Revised Non-Farm Productivity is expected to increase to 3.3% from the previous value of 3.0%, Revised Unit Labor Cost is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.5% and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to show less deficit at -3.2M from the previous figure of -3.4M. The forecasts are quite mixed in nature where any better than expected economic report is expected to add to the gains of USD against AUD in the coming days. To sum up, AUD has been quite weak in comparison as it could not dominate USD in its weakest period which is expected to lead to further USD gains in the coming days if USD publishes better economic report results in the future. Now let us look at the technical view, the price is being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA and it has worked very well as a resistance to keep the price lower. As the price is currently quite near to the support area of 0.7500-50 the bears are expected to push the price towards the support level in the coming days and any bounce or breaks off the area will lead to further directional movement in this pair. As the price remains below the dynamic level of 20 EMA and 0.7650 price area the bearish bias is expected to continue further. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Dec 7, 2017 1:57:46 GMT -5
Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Dec 07, 2017 In Asia, Japan will release the Leading Indicators and 30-y Bond Auction data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Consumer Credit m/m, Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3: 113.02. Resistance. 2: 113.80. Resistance. 1: 112.58. Support. 1: 112.30. Support. 2: 112.08. Support. 3: 111.86. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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Post by instaforexgertrude on Dec 10, 2017 23:50:56 GMT -5
Euro and pound will be determined with directionEurozone The euro area economy continues to expand at a steady pace, GDP growth in Q3 was 0.6%, at an annual rate of 2.6%, preliminary data was revised upwards, which is consistent with the overall economic trend.  Growth is primarily due to increased investment and exports. Despite the fact that household expenditures have decreased somewhat, the general level of optimism continues to improve, as indicated by the recent reports of ZEW and IFO. On Wednesday, a report on industrial production will be released, on Thursday - PMI Markit index. This will be the latest data ahead of the ECB meeting, they will help to predict the overall tone of the commentary and the position of Mario Draghi at a subsequent press conference. On Thursday, investors do not expect the ECB to decide to make any concrete steps, since there is no reason for this yet. However, forecasts for economic growth and inflation will be updated upwards, as indicated by both growing business activity in recent months and rising oil prices. The euro as a reaction to the meeting of the FOMC may decline to a support level of 1.1670, growth is limited to the level of 1.1880. United Kingdom The pound on the eve of the meeting of the Bank of England on December 14 is seent to be positive. According to Halifax, housing prices have stabilized after more than a year of decline and activity in the construction sector decreased. The inflation forecast published by the Bank of England rose from 2.8% to 2.9%, the trade deficit instead of expanding has unexpectedly remained virtually unchanged. Sufficiently, the industry appears much better, which was clearly facilitated by the protracted period of the weak pound, which supported the export industries. The industrial sector is growing for the sixth month in a row, on an annualized basis, growth was 3.9%, which is higher than expected  The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) reports that, according to their calculations, UK GDP growth for the last 3 months was 0.5%, which exceeds both the indicators of the beginning of the year and 0.4% in the third quarter. These factors increase the likelihood that the Bank of England will continue to gradually raise rates, and will also contribute to the growth of the pound. Although at the next meeting, the Bank of England will not raise the bid, the general trend is in favor of an increase, which is clearly a bullish factor for the pound. On Friday, there was news that the UK and the EU agreed on three key points in the first phase of the Brexit talks. The border between Ireland and Northern Ireland was agreed upon, migration policies concerning the rights of EU citizens in the UK, and, most importantly, London's payment for the withdrawal from the EU. Thus, the first phase of negotiations is completed, and at the EU meeting on December 14, it will be possible to announce the progress achieved. This news will strengthen the positions of both the euro and pound. The pound, nevertheless, will still be under pressure, since there are no serious internal drivers in the coming week. Presumably, a decline towards 1.3250 as an intermediate target and 1.2850 as a long-term goal. Oil China, which is the world's major oil consumer, supported the growing trend on Friday, posting significantly higher than expected trade balance data in November. Crude oil imports increased by 19.37% in November, demand remains firmly high, which, combined with a number of restrictive measures by OPEC + and significant financial losses of shale companies in the US, contribute to the formation of a stable demand against the backdrop of stable production in the context of the price war with OPEC. Together, these factors support oil, which allows us to predict a breakthrough of resistance at 63.50 for Brent in the short term. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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