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The Release of Government's EU Exit Analysis



The EU free trade agreements still expected to cost the UK by 4.8 percent of its projected economic growth for the next 15 years, based on the confidential government ‘EU exit analysis’ released yesterday. The decline in growth amounted to £55 billion of the British government debt by 2033, which could further negate the expected ‘Brexit dividend’ by the supporters of the EU exit. The report was issued by the department of Exiting the EU committee. Moreover, Brexit Secretary David Davis stated that the published document should be kept confidential but some parts of the material were already leaked to the media last month.



The alternative option led by Theresa May’s team is the “Membership of the single market” but was ruled out due to the possible drop in GDP by 1.6 percent. On one hand, the ‘no deal’ Brexit would return the UK trading with the EU-27 under the standards of the World Trade Organisation and would cost 7.7 percent of the GDP based on the government numbers. This could result in a surge of government borrowing by £20 billion and £80 billion, respectively. With this, there are assumptions that approximately 40,000 to 90,000 EU migrants are planning to leave the United Kingdom.



Included in the analysis is the projected economic benefits from the reducing regulations. The government of Britain would likely create its original version of impact assessment, however, some of the think tanks are expected to see potential gains around zero and 2 percent only of the GDP. Nevertheless, the report does not mainly evaluate the short-term economic effect of Brexit.



It further shows that the free trade deal with the United States would benefit the UK GDP by 0.2 percent in the longer term. While another concession with countries under the trans-Pacific and south-east Asia regional group such as Australia, China, India and New Zealand is expected to add 0.1 to 0.4 percent of GDP. Ministers of Britain are hoping to start the talks prior to the Brexit scheduled in March 2019, but this plan seems to be already abandoned.

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UK Economy Lag Behind Other G20 Countries



According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the British economy is expected to grow at a gradual pace compared with other major advanced or emerging countries. Prior the publication of the Spring Statement, the Paris-based organization revised upwards its economic outlook for Britain by 1.3% this year along with the strong global recovery. The forecast is higher than the initial estimate of 1.2% but remains to be the weakest in the Group of Twenty (G-20).



The OECD projected that the most rapid growth from 2011 was led by US tax reductions and German expenditure. The think tank stated that the world economy stayed on course to boost its annual momentum to 3.9% in the next couple of years. The figure is relatively higher than the recent forecast in November 2018 of 3.7% and 3.6% in 2019. However, there are warnings that the recovery risk may subside due to the expansion of trade barriers and could further affect the growth and jobs. The OECD mentioned that increased in UK inflation would continue to squeeze the household income. Also, the sluggish business investment could affect growth for the following years until 2020 due to risks caused by the Brexit talks.



The forecast for UK economic growth in 2019 was left unchanged at 1.1%, which recorded to be the slowest progress next to Japan. Economists predicted that the British economy will grow by 1.5% on an annual basis, while Chancellor Philip Hammond is expected to issue an optimistic outlook of the revised official forecasts on Tuesday.



Overall, the latest projection of the OECD showed that the entire G20 countries, except for Russia, will expand at a faster pace for the current year versus the November forecast.

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British Chambers of Commerce Upgrade UK Economic Outlook



The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) lifted its forecast for the UK economic growth, however, showed warning that UK will be the worst performing economy among other G7 countries in 2020. The GDP outlook of the BCC is 1.1 to 1.4 percent for this year and 1.3 to 1.5 percent in 2019.While, the initial growth forecast is 1.6 percent for 2020, as the revision was steered by the slightly stronger than anticipated consumer expenditure. Moreover, exports from Britain is predicted to remain stable amid robust global growth. On the other hand, imports could possibly resume its expansion and the net trade contribution to the country’s GDP in the short term appears to be limited, as the pound support Britain’s overall net trade position. In spite of the increases, the UK GDP is expected to remain below the historical average during the forecasting period.



The non-profit organization stated that productivity is projected to have slight improvement compared over its estimated outcome but continued to be weak restrained by the underlying issues within the country, such as skills shortages and failure in infrastructure investment. The BCC expects that inflation will pick up and start to ease in the near term since the impact of the post-Brexit toned down upon the weakening the Sterling. Furthermore, there are assumptions that the next hike in UK official interest rates will reach 0.7 percent in the second quarter of 2018, which could be followed by another rise in Q1 next year. The business body foresees that public sector borrowing in Britain will come in over £13.4bn for the next three years compared with the projection issued at the Spring Statement by the Office for Budget Responsibility last week.

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March Fed Rate Hike Marks an Optimistic Outlook for 2018

Full story at: goo.gl/b2M3WW

#economicnews #thinkbigtradeforex #forexmart

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You can register for the next competition which will take place from April 9, 2018 to April 13, 2018



Note:

Registration for the next competition finishes 1 hour before the contest starts.



--Winners of March 12 - March 16, 2018--



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6. Ocho4 of Abuja (Acct. No.: 1115)



7. -----------SamNN---- of Нижний Новгород (Act. No.: 1090)



8. Phaq of hafizabad (Acct. No.: 1075)

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US Factory Growth Hit Lower in March



The factory activity in the United States had slowed down for the month of March alongside the downturn in new orders. While growth in manufacturing industry continued to be supported by strong global and domestic economies. Further data showed on Monday the marginal increase in construction expenditure for February. The figures coincided with the economists’ forecast that the economic growth will slacken in January to March. Economic growth in the first quarter of 2018 appears to be weak due to seasonal quirk.



According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the national factory activity index declined to 59.3 in the previous month versus 60.8 in February. If the reading in the ISM index is above 50, it indicates expansion in manufacturing which accounts more or less than 12 percent of the American economy. While the survey's production sub-index drop to 1.0 point from the reading of 61.0 last month. The estimate of new orders fell to 61.9 in March against 64.2 in February. The gauge of factory labor reduced by 2.4 points to 57.3 in the previous month.



There are 17 sectors that reported growth in March, which involves computer and electronic products, fabricated metal products and machinery and chemical products. On the other hand, the Apparel, leather and allied items showed a downswing. Machinery manufacturers told that imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports led to panic buying, pushing short-term costs higher, and further caused scarcity for non-contractual clients. The tariffs set by US President Donald Trump is intended to protect domestic industries from the so-called unfair competition against other countries.



The report slightly influenced US financial markets. As shown in a separate report, construction spending gained 0.1 percent in February following a steady stance in January. The Reuters poll indicates that economist projected that construction spending grew by 0.5 percent in February and expected to increase by 3.0 percent on an annual basis. February’s marginal increase in construction spending presents a growth estimate for the GDP in Q1, which is predicted to be lower than the 2 percent annualized rate.



The costs on private construction projects were up by 0.7 percent on the back of its 0.7 percent decline in January. While nonresidential structures expenditures had rebounded by 1.5 percent in February after it plummeted to 1.7 percent in the past month.

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Italy’s Industrial Output Unexpectedly Decline in February



The industrial output of Italy suddenly weakened in February which further showed signs that growth in the Euro area may exceed its peak. The production declined by 0.5 percent since January after it dropped to 1.8 percent, according to the Istat in Rome yesterday. While economists predicted an expansion of 0.8 percent in February based on the median of 24 forecasts in the poll by Bloomberg. In the previous year, the working-day adjustment industrial output increase by 2.5 percent.



The manufacturing of consumer goods fell to 2.4 percent in February which had a major contribution to the monthly tightening. The manufacturing index of the country showed a lower than expected results in March after the failure in general elections to have a clear winner. This triggered concerns for the possible lengthy process prior to forming a new government.



Italy is the third largest economy in the European region and grew in 2017 at its fastest pace from 2010 since weaker consumption was outweighed due to increasing investments and exports. However, the national output hovered below its pre-crisis level where most of the major EU economies were able to recover from its sluggishness.



The German industrial production softens in February because construction shrank as well as the investment goods. The major downturn was 1.6 percent recorded in August 2015. While the research firm Sentix had a pessimistic outlook towards the Italian economy as indicated in their monthly report since July 2016.

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China’s Economic Growth Slacken in Jan-Mar Period



Chinese economy slowed down gradually in Q1 due to government struggle over credit and financial hazards, while U.S. trade frictions are showing signs of restricted growth based on AFP survey. China is projected to expand by 6.7 percent during the first quarter but remains to be lower than 6.8 percent in the last quarter of 2017 according to 13 economists prior the publication of official numbers. Analysts see that the decline was linked to the country’s massive pile of debt, financial risks, and slackening property market.



The trade war issues with the United States brought a negative impact towards the markets in the past few weeks, as Beijing and Washington appears to have equal retaliations with regards the bilateral trade. However, the fears triggered by US President Donald Trump to have an additional $100 billion in Chinese imports would cause solid damage to the economy, experts said.



The trade data was issued by Beijing on April 13 which supported the news that trade surplus in China with the US increased for the fifth time after the first quarter of the current year. There are indications that growth will reach higher than 6.7 percent based on AFP poll, with numbers greater than the official target of the government at 6.5 percent for this year.



On Thursday, Yi Gang, People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor, stated that China is scheduled to issue its economic quarterly data exceeding its expectations, which further shows an optimistic outlook in 2018.



President Xi Jinping had a propitiatory note on trade last week and pledged to reduced tariffs on cars and other goods which triggered anger of the United States. Also, to open up the economy which had a warm response from Trump. However, the commerce ministry of second largest economy in the world restated that there are no ongoing talks between the two capital cities due to insincerity showed by Washington.

[andreaforexmart]

Sluggish Q1 Growth Breaks The Longest Growth Since 1991



The largest economy cooled down sharply in the first quarter despite the onset of flu and strikes, which occurs simultaneously for the region that affecting negatively good growth rates.

The annualized growth rate of Germany slowed down to 1.2% from 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the record of the Federal Statistics Office on Tuesday. Although, a sharp slowdown is already anticipated as it did not meet expectations on the U.S. growth rate of 2.3% in the same period.



However, various factors such as the strike of flu and numerous strikes on metals and engineering sectors, which causes slow down and most of the private sectors anticipate the recovery of economic activities in the second quarter or more.



Since 1991, Germany undergoes the longest growth recorded for the fifteenth consecutive quarter, according to the Statistics office. The momentum on investment spending has overshadowed the economic growth in the first three months of the year. On the other hand, exports slid down in the fourth quarter in the previous year.



A calm activity for the first quarter due to the more sickly staff at a higher level in ten years in February in reference to the BKK association of company health-insurance funds in Germany. A recorded of 500,000 workers in the metals and electrical engineering sectors contributed to the warning strikes in the latter weeks of January and early February, as stated by the IG Metall labor union of Germany. They were able to get a solid pay deal from the members.



However, economic indicators reflect that other European economies are also affected by the cold diseases and strikes. Later this Tuesday, the European Union's statistics agency will release the eurozone gross domestic product, which measures the economic output of goods and services. An increase was seen in the first quarter with 1.7% at an annualized rate, which is less than the 2.7% growth in the last quarter of 2017.

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NZ Retail Sales Recorded Slowest Growth in Q1



The retail sales volume in New Zealand had expanded during Jan-Mar period but also recorded its slowest rate after five years, this further indicates the possible slackening of economic growth in the following years. On an annual basis, the official data showed that retail sales volume grew by 3 percent on Monday, which also imply a sharp decline versus the 5.4 percent rise in the previous quarter and the weakest growth from July-September 2012.



Sales gained 0.1 percent only based on a quarterly growth, which is lower than the rough estimate of 1 percent increase projected by the economists. Footwear and clothing had decreased by 5.1 percent while motor vehicles are down to 1.1 percent. The figures led to speed-bumps in the economy, whereas, many developed countries in the past years envied but it begins to deal with some headwinds due to weak immigration and expansion in the housing market.



The administration was able to secure strong economic growth because of immigration levels and stable price of dairy products at 3 percent per year despite the slight decline to 2.9 percent in 2017.



New Zealand's new Labour-led government took control in October and pledged to settle the housing crisis in the country along with some plans to improve property investment tax and officially ban foreigners to purchase residential properties in NZ. On Thursday, the expanded government investment declared in the annual budget would likely negate the sluggish consumption expenditure, with the 3.8 percent GDP growth outlook from the Treasury forecast in 2019. In addition to it, the GDP data for the first quarter is scheduled on June 21.

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EU Bloc Negotiates with Australia and New Zealand



The European bloc confirmed yesterday the start of free trade negotiations with Australia and New Zealand in order to establish new relations against the increasing trade tensions with the United States. The European Commission represents the 28 EU countries and negotiates about its plans and agreement towards the AU and NZ despite the warnings on opening the EU markets to generate farm products like beef and butter.



According to forecasts from EU, its exports towards Australia and New Zealand may expand by a third in case that trade agreements were finalized. Considering the fact that its trade partnership with the US was suspended by the presidential election victory of Donald Trump, the EU shifted its focus to build allies with open markets and struck agreements with countries on the same mind.



The bloc also deals with the result of steel and aluminum tariffs set by the US and the sanctions they would impose against Iran, which could lead to restriction of certain foreign businesses. The EU closed the deal with Japan, Mexico and Singapore and currently working with the Mercosur bloc of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.

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Russian Version of ForexMart Website



Great news to all traders in Russia!



ForexMart, continuing to open more doors to all the traders around

the globe, has made our website available in Russian language as well.



If you wish to view the site in another language, visit the ForexMart homepage, click the flag icon on the upper right portion of the website, and select Russian flag. All the contents will automatically be translated to Russia.



We, as your dependable trading partner, endeavor to make your trading experience more comfortable and convenient. Keep checking our website from time to time as we make it available in other languages, too. Meanwhile, if you want to open a ForexMart account, visit our homepage or sign up here.



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PBOC Increased the 28-repo rates by 2.85 percent



The People’s Bank of China adjusted their rates higher on the 28-day reverse bond repurchase agreements to keep with the pace on previous increases in tenors for the past two months.



According to the report from the online site of the PBOC, the 28-day reverse repos raised from 2.80 percent to 2.85 percent.



This move was enacted after the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank had also raised their rates on March 21 which signifies that Beijing is keeping up with the global market trends despite all of the financial risks in their homeland.



Moreover, the central bank added 30 billion yuan into money markets, particularly on their 7-day and 28-day rates on Monday, where the seven-day was set at 2.55 percent based on their given statements.