Wave Analysis by InstaForex

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The export of the eurozone is in order







The euro managed to return a number of positions in relation to the US dollar after the release of good data on the growth of exports of goods from the eurozone in August this year. The absence of other important macroeconomic statistics forced large investors to refrain from further buying the US dollar after Friday's fluctuations.



According to the Eurostat report, eurozone exports in August increased by 2.5% compared to July, while imports increased by only 0.4%. The positive balance of foreign trade in goods in the eurozone in August 2017 amounted to 21.6 billion euros, against the 17.9 billion euros in July.



After such data, it can be concluded that the sharp increase in the European currency in the first half did not significantly affect the export sector, which will positively affect the overall indicator of the eurozone economy in 2017.



Good data on the growth of production activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York did not provide significant support to the US dollar in the afternoon. According to the report of the Fed-New York, the production index in October 2017 increased by 5.8 points, to 30.2 points. Forty-four percent of respondents said about improvement of conditions, while 14% of respondents said that conditions worsened. Economists had expected the index to be 20 points.



As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, only a break and consolidation above the level of 1.1830 could lead to the return of the trading instrument to the area of monthly highs, which will allow us to count on continuing the upward trend in risky assets in order to update the levels of 1.1900 and 1.1950. For the time being, the trade is in the level of 1.1800. The pressure on the European currency will continue to be maintained, which will allow the sellers of risky assets to expect the continued decline of EURUSD already in the region of monthly lows in the range of 1.1690 and for their renewal in the 1.1630 and 1.1600 areas.



Today it also became known that the budget surplus of Greece has grown. According to the Ministry of Finance of the country, over the past 9 months of this year, the budget surplus of Greece amounted to 4.54 billion euros. However, it was not possible to reach the target level due to a reduction in tax revenues. According to the Ministry of Finance, budget revenues from January to September amounted to 36 billion euros, which is below the target level of 2.4 billion euros.



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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 18, 2017







When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German 30-y Bond Auction. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Beige Book, Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, and Building Permits, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.



TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1826.

Strong Resistance:1.1819.

Original Resistance: 1.1808.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1797.

Target Inner Area: 1.1769.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1741.

Original Support: 1.1730.

Strong Support: 1.1719.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1712.



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[IFX Yvonne]

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 19, 2017



When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Spanish 10-y Bond Auction. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Claims, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a ... volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1849.
Strong Resistance:1.1842.
Original Resistance: 1.1831.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1820.
Target Inner Area: 1.1792.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1764.
Original Support: 1.1753.
Strong Support: 1.1742.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1735.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 20, 2017







When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Current Account and German PPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Existing Home Sales, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.



TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1904.

Strong Resistance:1.1897.

Original Resistance: 1.1886.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1875.

Target Inner Area: 1.1847.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1818.

Original Support: 1.1808.

Strong Support: 1.1797.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1790.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

[IFX Yvonne]

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Oct 23, 2017



Today, Japan and the US will not release any Economic Data. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 114.44.
Resistance. 2: 114.21.
Resistance. 1: 114.00.
Support. 1: 113.72.
Support. 2: 113.50.
Support. 3: 113.28.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

[instaforexgertrude]

AUD/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy







The price has dropped perfectly and reached our profit target. We now prepare to buy above major support at 88.39 (Multiple Fibonacci retracements, horizontal overlap support) for a push up to at least 89.10 resistance (Multiple Fibonacci retracements, recent swing high resistance).



Stochastic (21,3,1) is seeing support above 1.2% where we expect a corresponding bounce from.



Buy above 88.39. Stop loss is at 88.17. Take profit is at 89.10.



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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 25, 2017







When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German 10-y Bond Auction and German Ifo Business Climate. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Crude Oil Inventories, New Home Sales, HPI m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.



TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1815.

Strong Resistance:1.1808.

Original Resistance: 1.1797.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1786.

Target Inner Area: 1.1758.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1730.

Original Support: 1.1719.

Strong Support: 1.1708.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1701.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 26, 2017







When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Minimum Bid Rate, Italian 10-y Bond Auction, Private Loans y/y, M3 Money Supply y/y, Spanish Unemployment Rate, and German GfK Consumer Climate. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Natural Gas Storage, Pending Home Sales m/m, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, Goods Trade Balance, and Unemployment Claims, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium volatility during this day.



TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1875.

Strong Resistance:1.1868.

Original Resistance: 1.1857.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1846.

Target Inner Area: 1.1818.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1790.

Original Support: 1.1779.

Strong Support: 1.1768.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1761.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 27, 2017







GBP/USD is piercing once again below the 200 SMA, confirming that it's trapped in between a narrow range. That's why we're no clear in which is the dominant trend across the board, but still, we're expecting a breakout lower. If the support level offered by October 20th lows give up, then we might see a decline towards the 1.3037 level.



H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3309 / 1.3373

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3216 / 1.3037



Trading recommendations for today:

Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.3216, take profit is at 1.3037 and stop loss is at 1.3398.



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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 27, 2017





EUR / USD pair

Trend analysis (Figure 1)

The downward trend prevailed last week. The market tested again the resistance line and drove downwards. The price may fend off the support line and move higher in the following week. Complex analysis will accurately show the price direction.







Fig. 1 (weekly chart).

Indicator analysis on the weekly schedule (Figure 2).

The system of indicators ADX (Figure 2).

On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up.

In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators.

MACD Indicator (period 5/8/13).

The linear part of the MACD indicator. Fast line (signal) - a line of white color.

The slow line (main line) is the blue line.

The result of the MACD indicator is a downward trend (100 points down). Histogram of the MACD indicator.

Histogram - columns of black color.

The result of the histogram of the MACD indicator is a downward trend (100 points down).

Overall: the MACD indicator on the weekly chart gives a downward trend.

Middle lines of the EMA.

On the weekly chart, the following midlines are used.

1 middle EMA line - color white (first shadow).

5 the middle line of the EMA - the color is red (the first shadow).

8 middle EMA line - the color is blue (trend of the week).

13 the middle line of the EMA - the color is yellow (the trend of the week).

21 middle EMA line - brown color (trend of the week).

At the last run 8, the middle EMA line (blue) is moving down over the 13th EMA midline (yellow), which also moved down - the signal is up. At the last run 13, the middle EMA line (yellow) is moving down above the 21 middle line of the EMA (black), which moved downward - the signal gain of the upper work.

The bottom line: the EMA mid-line system on the weekly chart gives an upward signal. The probability distribution of the indicators are as follows:

- average EMA lines - 24% up;

- MACD indicator (linear part) - 38% down;

- MACD indicator (histogram) - 38% down.

Overall: on technical analysis: the price on the weekly chart should have a downward trend.

Calculation of the first shadow of the week (Monday) on a weekly chart.

The middle lines of the EMA 1/5/8 are the lower signal.

The indicator "three lines" (the direction of the lines of indicators CCI (5), RSI (5), stochastics with a period of 3/3/4) is the lower signal.

Calculation of the RSI indicator system for the first tail is the bottom signal.

The bottom line: the calculation of the weekly candle from October 30 to November 04 showed that the price movement on Monday should move downward, but the final outcome depends entirely on the daily chart. Calculation of the second shadow of the week (Friday).

The calculation for the MACD linear part showed a downward trend (100 points down).

Calculation of the MACD histogram gave a downward trend (100 points down).

The bottom line: the calculation on Friday for the technical analysis showed that the price may have a downward trend, which should be confirmed by the daily chart.







Fig. 2 (weekly chart).

Complex analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candle analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- monthly chart - down.



Conclusion on complex analysis - up.

The entire result of the calculation of candle currency pair EUR/USD on a weekly chart indicates the weekly price would likely to have an upward trend with the presence of the first lower shadow in the weekly white candle and the presence of a second upper shadow. The upper goal is 1.1670.



GBP / USD Pair

Trend analysis (Figure 1)

The downward trend prevailed last week. The price reached the support line at 1.3087 (white thick line). Most likely, there will be an upward trend next week. The level of probability for this scenario is likely shown in a comprehensive analysis.







Fig. 1 (weekly chart).

Indicator analysis on the weekly schedule (Figure 2).

The system of indicators ADX (Figure 2).

On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) moved upward, and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved down. In this case, the trend should be determined from the indicators of the oscillator type.

Stochastic indicator (period 3/3/4) on the weekly chart gives an upward trend (Fig. 2).

The system of indicators RSI (Figure 2).

When working with the daily chart, the following periods are used in the RSI indicator system: 21 (brown), 8 (blue), 13 (yellow), 5 (red).

On the last closed candle.

The calculation of the indicator RSI (5) on properties gives up.

Calculation of the indicator RSI (8) by properties gives up.

The bottom line: the RSI indicator system gives a downward trend.

The calculation of the indicator CCI on the properties moves down.

The bottom line: the CCI indicator system gives a downward trend.

Overall: according to the indicator analysis, the price on the weekly chart should have an upward trend.

Calculation of the first shadow of the week (Monday) on a weekly chart.

Middle lines EMA 1/5/8 - the upper signal.

The indicator "three lines" (the direction of the lines of indicators CCI (5), RSI (5), stochastics with a period of 3/3/4) is a neutral signal.

Calculation of the RSI indicator system for the first tail is the upper signal.

Result: the calculation of the weekly candle from October 30 to November 04, according to technical analysis showed that on Monday there will be an upper trend, but the price movement will determine the daily schedule.

Calculation of the second shadow of the week (Friday). The calculation for the MACD linear part - gave a downward trend (100 points down). Calculation of the MACD histogram - gave a downward trend (100 points down).

The bottom line: the calculation on Friday for the technical analysis showed that there will be a lower trend, but the price movement will determine the daily schedule.







Fig. 2 (weekly chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down; - candle analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up; - Bollinger lines - up;

- monthly graph - up.



Conclusion on the complex analysis is an upward movement.



The total result of the GBP / USD currency pair candlestick calculation according to the weekly chart shows the weekly price would likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candle and the presence of the second upper shadow. The initial target is 1.3336.



* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

* The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

[IFX Yvonne]

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 02, 2017



USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish outlook above 113.55. The pair is trading above its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

Therefore, as long as 113.55 holds on the downside, look for a further upside to 114.30 and even to 114.75 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 113.55 with a target at 113.30.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 113.55, Take Profit: 114.30

Resistance levels: 114.30, 114.75 and 114.90 Support Levels: 113.30, 112.95, 112.70

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

[instaforexgertrude]

The pound collapsed amid a hike in the interest rate by the Bank of England



The British pound collapsed after the decision of the Bank of England to raise the key interest rate for the first time since 2007.



Such a market reaction might be directly related to the fact that in the BoE's statement, the central bank said that it only plans to increase the rate until the beginning of 2020. Furthermore, many major players closed their positions after the pound was growing throughout the week, which eventually led to a sharp decline even against the background of higher interest rates.



On Thursday morning, data was released, which only managed to slightly support the British pound.



According to a report from the company Markit, the index of supply managers for the construction sector in October of this year has increased to 50.8 points from 48.1 points in September, returning to a level above 50. The company said that the growth in housing construction had offset a decline in the construction of infrastructure objects.



The Bank of England raised the key interest rate to 0.5% from 0.25%, but signaled that by the end of 2020 the rate is likely to be raised only twice. According to the analysts of the bank, inflation will approach the target level of 2% only by 2020. The Bank of England also lowered their forecast for GDP growth in 2018 to 1.7% against the August forecast of 1.8%.







As expected, the central bank's comments were tied to Brexit, which has a significant impact on the British economy, and also intensifies a sharp slowdown in potential economic growth. The Bank of England is seriously concerned about the reaction of households and companies to Brexit, which is an important risk for economic prospects.



The British pound collapsed from its morning highs around 1.3300 to the support of 1.3100. In the near future, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney's outlined plan can change the alignment of forces in the market.



The euro rose during the first half of the day after the release of data, which showed that the number of unemployed in Germany in October had decreased. According to the report of the Ministry of Labor, the number of unemployed in October of this year has declined by 11,000, while economists expected a reduction of only 10,000. The unemployment rate in October was at 5.6%.



*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

[IFX Yvonne]

Wave analysis of the USD/CHF currency pair for November 6, 2017



Analysis of wave counting:

The attempt to continue the development of the downward correction on Friday failed, and after testing the 0.9950 mark, the price for the USD/CHF pair returned to the parity-level region. It can be assumed that the currency pair remained in the stage of formation of the 4th wave, in C, which until the end of the day retained the elements of some incompleteness. At the same time, one can not exclude the fact that the indicated rise of quotations can be further developed, and the wave structure of the third wave, in C, will take an even more complex and extended form in time.

Targets for an upward wave option:

1.0080 - 1.0100

Targets for a downward wave option:

0.9966 - 23.6% by Fibonacci

0.9922 - 38.2% by Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The assumed wave 3, in C can be completed. If this assumption is correct, then the declining of quotations will continue within the wave 4 in the composition of C with targets near the estimated levels of 0.9966 and 0.9922, which is equivalent to 23.6% and 38.2% of Fibonacci. Wave 3, in C can further complicate its internal structure with targets that are above the price parity. In favor of this option, it can be two unsuccessful attempts to break through the mark of 0.9966.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

[instaforexgertrude]

NZD/USD profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell



The price has continued to rise perfectly to our profit target. We now prepare to sell below major resistance at 0.6968 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, bearish divergence) and we expect to see a strong reaction from this level to push the price down to at least 0.6827 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).



Stochastic (55,3,1) is seeing strong resistance below 96% and also sees bearish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal is impending.

Sell below 0.6968. Stop loss is at 0.7043. Take profit is at 0.6827.







*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.



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[instaforexgertrude]

Pressure on the euro persists



The European currency continued to decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, November 7.



Pressure was already formed at the beginning of the European session due to the release of weak data on industrial production in Germany, which could significantly hurt the indicators of economic growth in the future.



According to the report of the Ministry of Economy of Germany, industrial production in September of this year declined by 1.6% compared to August. Economists expected a decline in production, but only by 0.8% compared with the previous month.



However, as noted by the ministry, the growth rates of industrial production as a whole remain quite good, and we can expect that in the coming months a rise in production will continue.



Data on retail sales slightly helped the European currency.



According to the report, retail sales in the euro area in September this year increased by 0.7% compared with August. Data for August was also revised downwards, as it dropped to -0.1%. Economists had expected a 0.6% increase in retail sales in September of this year.







Compared to the same period in 2016, retail sales in the euro area grew by 3.7%.



In the course of his speech, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, did not touch on the subject of monetary policy and a tapering of the bond-buying program. Basically, his speech was focused on the problem of overdue loans.



Let me remind you that quite recently the central bank introduced new rules for handling overdue loans, which provoked a contradictory reaction.



During the course of his speech, ECB Governor Mario Draghi said the joint efforts of all participants will be needed in order to solve the problem of overdue loans. He paid special attention to the key problem of banking supervision. According to the president of the ECB, joint efforts of banks, supervisors, regulators and authorities of the countries will significantly affect the problem of loans.



As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the bears are gradually moving towards their goal in the support area of 1.1540 and 1.1500, which can be achieved in the near future. As the main trade is unfolding below the level of 1.1580, we can expect that the European currency will continue to be under pressure.



It is worth recalling that the chairman of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen will make a speech at the end of Tuesday, which can clarify the further prospects of hiking interest rates in December this year. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.



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